janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20... VALID 221702Z - 221800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA. DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA. AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL/BALDWIN COUNTY AL CONTINUES, THE WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE FL/AL/GA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR INDICATE QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING. AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COVINGTON COUNTY AL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF TRACKS EAST INTO THE RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER, INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. 1636Z VWP DATA FROM TLH INDICATES 0-1KM SRH VALUES GREAT THAN 350 M2/S2 AND THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE MCD AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 TWC took out any mention of even severe storms on my local forecast! I know it's TWC , but they had worded earlier today Thunderstorms , a few may be severe! Now, it's just thunderstorms ! No wonder everybody gives them crap! This is not your avg severe day and just don't understand them , at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Um, either yesterday or the day before Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: When was the last time a PDS Red Box was issued...April 2011? Yesterday evening a PDS Red Box was issued, Tornado Watch #17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Cells really getting going west of Destin... I'd imagine we'll see a few TOR warnings here within the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: Cells really getting going west of Destin... I'd imagine we'll see a few TOR warnings here within the next 30 minutes. Just got pounded pretty good here in Navarre again. I would guess areas away from the coast will be ripe for a quick spin up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Robbins AFB radar back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 We had radars nearly destroyed last night!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: We had radars nearly destroyed last night!?!? Dont think so, Moody AFB(VAX) and Robbins AFB(JGX) had an outage, I sure hope they can get VAX back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: Dont think so, Moody AFB(VAX) and Robbins AFB(JGX) had an outage, I sure hope they can get VAX back up. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Only downside to this High Risk is that you're really putting yourself out there. If this thing goes linear fast and all you get is wind...you look like a royal idiot. At this point you need the worst case scenario to pan out to keep public credibility. Horrible situation to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Things are improving rapidly in Navarre. Had one final storm move thru with torrential rain, frequent lightning, and our highest wind gust (50mph). Blue sky to our west with the sun peaking out here. My thoughts will be with those to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Clouds have broken up a bit. Bad sign for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Only downside to this High Risk is that you're really putting yourself out there. If this thing goes linear fast and all you get is wind...you look like a royal idiot. At this point you need the worst case scenario to pan out to keep public credibility. Horrible situation to be in. True, but given that this system has killed 15 people in the last 2 days and the region under the bullseye isn't used to widespread outbreaks, a slightly over-aggressive labeling isn't the worst thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 There's the PDS TOR: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There's the PDS TOR: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama North Florida Central and Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...An outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is expected to unfold over the watch area this afternoon. Storms currently over AL and the FL panhandle will track rapidly northeastward, posing a risk of long-track significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 140 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Troy AL to 30 miles south southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 90% probs on everything in that watch. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 90/90 tornado probs on the watch.... Looking at Sat TLH to SW GA really clearing out. Next area to watch for clearing is Valdosta and NE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Man, Atlanta in the watch area. This is gonna be a long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Somewhat surprised they extended the PDS watch this far north here in the Atlanta area. I guess due to the proximity of the low pressure track this evening. We're down here at the Dome for the Falcons game.....may be exciting leaving the game this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Holy sheet. Hate to see my home state under the gun with such a great risk of long track tornadoes. Looks like ATL remains "safe" in the slight to enhanced risk with the moderate to high just to the south of the metro. Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just remembered that the NFC Championship Game is gonna kick off right around the same time as the outbreak. Pity the poor southern GA/northern FL Fox affiliates that will have to juggle football and literal life-saving information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said: Somewhat surprised they extended the PDS watch this far north here in the Atlanta area. I guess due to the proximity of the low pressure track this evening. We're down here at the Dome for the Falcons game.....may be exciting leaving the game this evening. They really should have split the watch into 2. No way probs are as high for Atlanta as they are for S Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Upper Level LOL said: Just remembered that the NFC Championship Game is gonna kick off right around the same time as the outbreak. Pity the poor southern GA/northern FL Fox affiliates that will have to juggle football and literal life-saving information. Going to be a lot of hate for mets later on. Going to be a long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Oh to be a fly on the wall of the Georgia State EOC today. So many angry football fans today too...football > tornado. The met hate will be yuge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: They really should have split the watch into 2. No way probs are as high for Atlanta as they are for S Georgia. My guess & only a guess is that the NFC title game had something to do with Atlanta metro area being included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The "weather cutting into sports" isn't as big of a deal as it used to be. Most people have digital TV these days and the affiliate can switch the game over to their secondary channel for those who want to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Looks like clearing is starting in SW Georgia per the visible satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Don't see anything happening here today. Too overcast and cool. But it looks incredibly dangerous for Georgia and north Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Don't see anything happening here today. Too overcast and cool. But it looks incredibly dangerous for Georgia and north Florida. This was never a NC event. Big show was always for south GA and north FL, even days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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