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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1102 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL  
AND SOUTHWEST GA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...  
  
VALID 221702Z - 221800Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS  
INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA.  
  
DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL  
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA. AS RAPID  
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL/BALDWIN  
COUNTY AL CONTINUES, THE WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD  
FROM NEAR THE FL/AL/GA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA. TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR INDICATE QUICK  
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE MID  
60S INTO THE LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING. AS A LINE OF  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COVINGTON  
COUNTY AL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF TRACKS EAST INTO THE  
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER, INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. 1636Z VWP DATA FROM TLH INDICATES 0-1KM SRH  
VALUES GREAT THAN 350 M2/S2 AND THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE MCD AREA.  

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Only downside to this High Risk is that you're really putting yourself out there.  If this thing goes linear fast and all you get is wind...you look like a royal idiot.  At this point you need the worst case scenario to pan out to keep public credibility.  Horrible situation to be in.

True, but given that this system has killed 15 people in the last 2 days and the region under the bullseye isn't used to widespread outbreaks, a slightly over-aggressive labeling isn't the worst thing.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 21
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Alabama
     North Florida
     Central and Southern Georgia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until
     800 PM EST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...An outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is expected to
   unfold over the watch area this afternoon.  Storms currently over AL
   and the FL panhandle will track rapidly northeastward, posing a risk
   of long-track significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 140 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Troy AL to 30
   miles south southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021_radar_big.gif

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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

Somewhat surprised they extended the PDS watch this far north here in the Atlanta area.  I guess due to the proximity of the low pressure track this evening.  We're down here at the Dome for the Falcons game.....may be exciting leaving the game this evening.

They really should have split the watch into 2. No way probs are as high for Atlanta as they are for S Georgia.

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Just now, Upper Level LOL said:

Just remembered that the NFC Championship Game is gonna kick off right around the same time as the outbreak.  Pity the poor southern GA/northern FL Fox affiliates that will have to juggle football and literal life-saving information.

Going to be a lot of hate for mets later on.  Going to be a long day.

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