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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Wow! I'd heard it was bad down there , but that's very sad!! Wonder if the storms were that powerful or just the location, where it would seem they have more poorly built houses and MH?

I'd guess there were significant tornadoes down there, saw a few TDSs.

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WW0020 Radar

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 20
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   800 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Alabama
     The Florida Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 800 AM until
     200 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Convection will continue to develop in a band that will
   lift slowly northward through the morning into southern Alabama and
   southwestern Georgia.  A few storms in this band will be capable of
   producing tornadoes, especially later this morning toward southeast
   Alabama and the eastern Florida Panhandle, where a strong tornado
   will be possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
   north and south of a line from Marianna FL to 10 miles south of
   Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
   watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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31 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

I'm trying to remember the last time there was a high risk issued for this part of the SE?  Has there been?  Back in March 2008 the high risk area extended from central Georgia into southern SC, but having it this far south and east is unusual to say the least.  This low pressure and track is crazy.

- Buck

I couldn't find another instance for the peninsula of Florida either.

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Hope our own stay safe today and our lone Florida poster and good friend Phil! High risk in Jan is no joke, this is scary. Hodographs coming out of the area are supportive of extremely strong tornadoes. Just impressive. 

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more details form last night

  
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
940 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0332 AM     TORNADO          1 NW BARNEY             31.02N 83.53W   
01/22/2017                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER   
  
            *** 2 FATAL *** DAMAGE REPORTED IN BROOKS COUNTY WITH   
            DUAL-POL TDS. FATALITIES OCCURRED WHEN A HOUSE WAS   
            DISPLACED ONTO HIGHWAY 122.  
  
0345 AM     TORNADO          4 SE ADEL               31.09N 83.38W   
01/22/2017                   COOK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR    
  
            *** 7 FATAL *** EMS RELAYED REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER  
            THAT THESE FATALTITIES HAD OCCURRED WITH ONE PERSON STILL  
            MISSING.  
  
0350 AM     TORNADO          2 NW NEW LOIS           31.11N 83.29W   
01/22/2017                   BERRIEN            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT   
  
            *** 2 FATAL *** DAMAGE ALONG OLD LOIS ROAD. LIKELY   
            CONTINUATION OF TORNADO FROM COOK COUNTY. FATALITIES   
            CONFIRMED BY SHERRIF. REPORTED BY WALB-TV.  

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44 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

Wow. Last night was really active in GA. Close calls with tornado warned storms in Waycross. Really worried about family in GA this afternoon.

I'll be working (at times) in your old stomping grounds soon ;)  

 

CAE......

A warm front will extend through the forecast area ahead of
strong low pressure today. Satellite and radar trends support
numerous showers and thunderstorms early this morning mainly
associated with a mid-level shortwave trough. Shear will be high
with h85 wind near 50 knots. Observation trends support
increasing instability associated with the low-level southerly
flow. The instability will likely remain weak this morning as
depicted by the HRRR, but because of the very strong shear
severe thunderstorms including tornadoes are possible. The
threat should be greater in the southeast section closer to the
more unstable air.

The high-resolution models support a lull in shower and
thunderstorm coverage as this lead mid-level feature lifts
northeast of the area later this morning. There will likely be
increased coverage this afternoon into the evening just ahead
of the upper low. The NAM and GFS are consistent indicating
strong instability developing as the cold upper low gets closer
to the area. The models display surface-based LI values -5 to -9
with the greatest instability in the east section closer to
greater low-level moisture. This instability combined with
continued favorable h85 and h25 jet dynamics and a mid-level dry
slot supports the potential for supercells ahead of an QLCS.
Significant tornadoes (EF2 damage or greater) and large hail
will be possible this afternoon and evening.

The severe thunderstorm threat should end late tonight as the
warm or occluded front shifts north of the forecast area with a
loss of surface-based instability. Wrap-around moisture and cold
air aloft associated with the upper low supports a continued
shower chance with graupel possible.    

Mixing associated with strong instability forecast today plus
the pressure gradient tonight supports a lake wind advisory.
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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Holy crap! TWC just showed a hi-res model , zeroed in on ATL of course, but from about 5pm-11pm or so, there were some insane looking storms in NGa through the Upstate!!

yeah thats a sneaky 500mb core cold stuff near the low

HRRR radar wraps the low up so much it has an eye

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