JasonOH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Still don't see anything impressive in the PDS watch box. Again, it's really early. The warm front is just lifting through. This will be just like last night with the strongest storms in the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Hopefully fact it's still very sloppy storm mode means a bullet dodge. Last night was bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 New day 1 has a moderate risk for the southern half of Georgia into north Florida. 15% hatched tornado probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 56 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Hopefully fact it's still very sloppy storm mode means a bullet dodge. Last night was bad enough. NAM & HRRR fire plenty more bullets tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM & HRRR fire plenty more bullets tomorrow. Hopefully it ends up like tonight, but unfortunately as we know too well, only takes one. Great job to all here with info, very educational as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I thought it was just sort of "on hold" and then a cell down in SE AL started looking like it wants to do something unpleasant. It's crossed the border into SW GA and is menacing Blakely, Bancroft, and Arlington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Having the KVAX (Moody AFB/Valdosta) and KJGX (Robbins AFB/Macon) radars down going into a Moderate Risk day is less than ideal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Reported a couple smokestacks as tornadoes last year and reported a rain shaft as a large tornado enacting a tornado emergency in NC last year. Not smart at all. Ooh, when was that? That sounds juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2017 is starting out cursed when Valdosta/MoodyAFB radar is down as cell that's been producing strong signatures and some TDS indicators passes nearby. OUCH. Edit: Looks like the rotation will be passing over I-75 just south of Adel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Debris sig from GA a little bit ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just before crossing I-75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Tomorrow just on multiple levels looks bad, more details in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 we have to watch for 500mb cold core activity more NW then a lot of people will think including the ATL area just east of the very wrapped up low this will be later after the main line passes east further south and if we get a little heating behind it later in the day edit: wow HRRR is even picking it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 HIGH RISK COMING ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FL...SOUTHERN GA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 221134Z - 221300Z SUMMARY...THE 13Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES -- SOME STRONG AND LONG-TRACK -- EXPECTED LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION...ANOMALOUSLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST, COMBINED WITH A MAINTAINED INFLUX OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BASED ON THE 06Z SLIDELL LA SOUNDING, AND THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH THE AFFECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES, AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR FOR THE 13Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED WITHIN THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK DISCUSSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC added 4 new photos. 30 mins · Here's the 700 AM briefing on today and tonight's severe weather potential for Central NC! 14 Shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Oh crap, Tallahassee radar is down right now too, that makes three with the Valdosta GA and Macon GA radars out since yesterday. Really hope they can get at least one of the two between Valdosta and Tallahassee up and running for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 First High Risk for tornadoes since April 28th 2014. Can't say I'm too surprised; setup is insane. I should also point out that KTLH, KVAX and KJGX radars all down. Really hope we get them up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...NORTH FLORIDA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA, WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. ***SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA*** ..SYNOPSIS AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/OK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO MS/AL BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SYNOPTIC CYCLONE NEAR TEXARKANA WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY CYCLOGENESIS TODAY AT THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL, AND THE EASTWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH FROM LA/MS. THIS NEW CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS AL/GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100-130 KT MID-UPPER JET. LIKEWISE, VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AND A LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY. THE NET RESULT OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EPISODE TODAY ACROSS NORTH FL INTO SOUTH GA. ..AL/FL/GA TODAY TO THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT PERSISTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH GA. THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AS WELL AS AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW OVER NORTH GA AND EAST TN. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING, OR IF IT WILL PERSIST UNTIL NEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FORM FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. REGARDLESS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS AL. LIKEWISE, AS THE SYNOPTIC MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONFIRM THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES, THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE UNUSUAL COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT, AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL FAVOR BROKEN BANDS OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA, THE SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY RAMP UP AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE RESIDUAL RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT, AND THEN SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL AND GA THROUGH THE DAY. LONG-TRACKED, STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS, IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF NEAR-SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MATURE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES PERSISTING AFTER DARK INTO SC AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN NC. FARTHER SOUTH, THE BAND OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised to see a few violent tornadoes today. Very potent setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Oh my! not used to seeing this in a lot of these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Oh my! not used to seeing this in a lot of these areas. I'm apparently not in a dangerous spot for this afternoon round, but the sun is about to break through here in the next few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 will have to see if that convection over the panhandle and gulf will retard moisture return north for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm apparently not in a dangerous spot for this afternoon round, but the sun is about to break through here in the next few minutes I definitely wouldn't let my guard down. You may not be in the EF3+ long track area but the upstate has a history of producing. I've seen EF1 damage that killed & EF0 that while very isolated caused a surprising amount of damage. Keep a eye on this today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 TWC just said 11 deaths from last night in south Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 looks like breaks in cloud cover over AL into GA the warm front may mix north of the current activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: looks like breaks in cloud cover over AL into GA the warm front may mix north of the current activity yeah that's what i'm worried about here. Currently it's still cloudy but there are already thin spots with breaks it appears to the south. Normally i don't worry too much about severe weather where i'm at, ne ga, because the terrain combined with east winds/cad/or residual surface cold pools weaken the convection by the time it gets here...but none of that exists this time and it's Such an usual setup.. I can't recall the last time, of if ever, there has been a 980mb low cutting across north ga in this fashion with severe weather possibilities. Currently spc has me right on the enhanced threat boundary. Certainly has my interest this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: TWC just said 11 deaths from last night in south Georgia. Wow! I'd heard it was bad down there , but that's very sad!! Wonder if the storms were that powerful or just the location, where it would seem they have more poorly built houses and MH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4k NAM has low down to 978 mb right over ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm trying to remember the last time there was a high risk issued for this part of the SE? Has there been? Back in March 2008 the high risk area extended from central Georgia into southern SC, but having it this far south and east is unusual to say the least. This low pressure and track is crazy. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 March 1, 2007 was probably the closest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.