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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Dude, I was just making a tongue in cheek comment after all the piling on about your writing yesterday. I was in no way intending to be critical. For the record, I always enjoy reading your input, even though my insufficient grounding in the science often precludes full comprehension. Anyway, enough of this mayhem. Back to weather.

Well there you go then - I'm being paranoid.

:) 

forget it - 

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's pretty cold at 850 considering the thicknesses. A nice high thickness snow. 

 

700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding.

 

I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding.

 

I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm.

March 2010 Will-unhinged?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take it.....at least it breaks the monotony of a bad pattern-

I think it could be more than that - by the time this thing happens (whatever it happens) we should be in a different "bad pattern"  hahaha

Not to be a douche but, ...I did spend to the time to point out that an A. signal was afoot, and explained why.  I suppose what mean is, we break a bad pattern with an A. 

we'll see though - frankly, I battling a bit of Stockholm Syndrome, where I almost can't imagine things actually working out another way.  

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 2010 Will-unhinged?

I'm already expecting it at this point, so I'll avoid the meltdown. But yeah, this could be a nice 2"+ QPF rainer on a benchmark track. We'll hope the blocking trend keeps going to make this interesting from a winter wx standpoint.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it could be more than that - by the time this thing happens (whatever it happens) we should be in a different "bad pattern"  hahaha

Not to be a douche but, ...I did spend to the time to point out that an A. signal was afoot, and explained why.  I suppose what mean is, we break a bad pattern with an A. 

we'll see though - frankly, I battling a bit of Stockholm Syndrome, where I almost can't imagine things actually working out another way.  

Yea, sorry John....def. wasn't trying to impugn your work.

All I meant was we're going to need some help....I worded that too strongly, I guess.

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding.

 

I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm.

Yup Dec 92.. Ginx said rain to Maine

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's pretty cold at 850 considering the thicknesses. A nice high thickness snow. 

Nice high to the north. This one is probably not even worth chatting about south of the Pike given the raging SE/E flow but yeah I'd be interested farther north.

South Coast could get some nice wind and some really heavy rain in between. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm.

The euro had this look and then lost it --as did the GFS; albeit to a lesser extent. Now the 12z GFS shows it's trending back to the colder solution...

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The euro had this look and then lost it --as did the GFS; albeit to a lesser extent. Now the 12z GFS shows it's trending back to the colder solution...

Euro is bringing it back this run...but it probably still needs to be a little stronger with the block to produce the snowier result.

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32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is 50 knot gusts for the coast - even pretty windy inland though I imagine the windy look on the soundings for BDL and HFD will be muted by some CAD. 

excellent point, Ryan!

i was thinking looking at this operational run ...gee, snow or not, what are the Tides for that period... That has a deep long east fetch of large knots through multiple tide cycles...  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event.

Yeah looked quite a bit colder in NNE. Eventually floods the warmth north at 850 due to the track, but NNE would definitely get some snow on that run

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event.

Are we primarily relying on downstream pseudo-blocking or can we get some assistance upstream with ridging pushing the trough axis further E?

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