Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well said...but the interests of this forum are heavily weighted towards snow. That being said, it is easy to overlook other areas of interest....I do get intrigued by extreme heat and wind events, but frankly neither are very common around here...especially the latter for me locally. NE fails at severe , tropical, drought, and extensive heat waves for the most part, we do snowstorms very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Cohen's blog now up...looks good at end of month. Be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But, suppose the QPF is right and the snow product is wrong, and the isotherm (0 C) rule of thumb tended to work out, I think that solution might be the biggest in history. 1888? Joke! Anyway, I think the +PNA phase change and the big A. correlation stuff is still in tact. Unfortunately, the caveat of those statistics not really speaking to snow; that is and was always there. If it doesn't break right, I'm hoping folks remember that 'real' usefulness there - The -NAO was encouraging... but, the NAO seems to be dinking around in the guidance since yesterday. Yeah, all I was thinking when I saw that QPF output was, "What if we had a fresh cold high up north? Dios mio, mang!" 1888 with room to spare. But alas, there's a reason why systems like that are so rare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, all I was thinking when I saw that QPF output was, "What if we had a fresh cold high up north? Dios mio, mang!" 1888 with room to spare. But alas, there's a reason why systems like that are so rare... true - but...that's also humor. the reference to 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Cohen's blog now up...looks good at end of month. Be patient. Of course he awakes from his bed of fail when the strat tries to show signs of disturbing. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: true - but...that's also humor. the reference to 1888 It was not lost on me, despite the muddiness of your exposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 GFS may be buying what the GGEM is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nothing better than a Sonoroan heat release. I love all kinds of interesting weather but its been a pretty boring stretch on all fronts. When people assume what others people think they often are wrong. I know many here are weather buffs which mean they appreciate the wild windex event, the ovenly HHH day, the brutal Valentines day wind and cold, the roar of a fall noreaster, the tranquility of a warm spring morning. The optics of snow far exceed any other natural occurrence, the instant transformation is the draw to me.Trying to psychologically interpret every one because of their post predilections has and will remain a foolish endeavor. I've come to completely agree with this... If one knows or suspects there's "ulterior motive/intent" there probably is? But it doesn't matter. One does not go to an Okie bar with chicken wire between the stage and the audience, and act surprised when their Hip Hop act doesn't go over too well. One should know their audience is all. That's why I don't really give a ratz azz anymore - If I draft up a heat wave thread in the summer and get crickets, that's just the rub of this social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: It was not lost on me, despite the muddiness of your exposition. "muddiness" how so ? seriously... what the hell is so hard to comprehend about that? i don't think 'that part' of the attack Tip bs going on since yesterday has legs - that's on you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hmmm. Hudson bay block forced a weenie cold tuck into New England on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: "muddiness" how so ? seriously... what the hell is so hard to comprehend about that? i don't think 'that part' of the attack Tip bs going on since yesterday has legs - that's on you guys. Pretty sure you are being paranoid, Hoth was in no way attacking you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM was a paste bomb away from coast. But it's the outlier because of the block it is able to form over Hudson Bay. Other guidance doesn't close off the block there and it slides east which allows the warmer air to advect in. Some of us are busy digging out from last night's paste bomb. Oh my bad....we're just wallowing in our disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hmmm. Hudson bay block forced a weenie cold tuck into New England on this run. Yea, check out this 48 hr trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hmmm. Hudson bay block forced a weenie cold tuck into New England on this run. Yep...don't want to sleep on this one quite yet. The Hudson bay block has shown up on some guidance here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It still warms up aloft, but an interesting look. Mix bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Let's clarify that some more. Well inland and N away from the coast. My guess is it would be quite a bit closer to the coast with that snow in reality on the GGEM...snow algorithm is punishing the torchy sfc too much probably. Not that it matters at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Regardless, I find it refreshing to see a slow moving cstl. I honestly cannot remember the last one since Jan 2015. Up here, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It still warms up aloft, but an interesting look. Mix bag. Need the block to hold just a bit longer for a paste bomb...it still eventually moves east this run, but a much better trend if we're trying to thread the cold needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Need the block to hold just a bit longer for a paste bomb...it still eventually moves east this run, but a much better trend if we're trying to thread the cold needle. Hopefully the start of a trend. But dam, what a moisture bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: "muddiness" how so ? seriously... what the hell is so hard to comprehend about that? i don't think 'that part' of the attack Tip bs going on since yesterday has legs - that's on you guys. Yikes, evidently my attempt at humor was muddy... I understood you perfectly. FYI, a winking emoji generally implies a little levity is intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regardless, I find it refreshing to see a slow moving cstl. I honestly cannot remember the last one since Jan 2015. Up here, anyways. Thanks! zactly. I was thinking that exact same thing yesterday, actually... whatever transpires in that period of time, it appears keyed into the evolution of the large scale wave configuration so should move slower. And wouldn't it be amazing? like a 30 hour event?? Even in 2015 I think the longest was like 18 ...which isn't bad. But, real run on the grocery store events need to have that appeal. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 GGEM is still pretty interesting...keeps the block closed and so it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure you are being paranoid, Hoth was in no way attacking you. Heh, wouldn't be the first time - But not really - he actually said, "muddiness" and I don't see how else that could be taken - just curious what was so muddy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regardless, I find it refreshing to see a slow moving cstl. I honestly cannot remember the last one since Jan 2015. Up here, anyways. Had to wait that long huh? lol just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Had to wait that long huh? lol just kidding. Well you figure every cold season usually has a couple. Been awhile...even Fall cstls have been few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, wouldn't be the first time - But not really - he actually said, "muddiness" and I don't see how else that could be taken - just curious what was so muddy about it. Dude, I was just making a tongue in cheek comment after all the piling on about your writing yesterday. I was in no way intending to be critical. For the record, I always enjoy reading your input, even though my insufficient grounding in the science often precludes full comprehension. Anyway, enough of this mayhem. Back to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Jeez Canadian is real close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Jeez Canadian is real close too. Yeah prob a nuke for N ORH county and Berks. The key is keeping that block closed off as long as possible so that it holds in that Quebec high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah prob a nuke for N ORH county and Berks. The key is keeping that block closed off as long as possible so that it holds in that Quebec high. It's pretty cold at 850 considering the thicknesses. A nice high thickness snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I'll take it.....at least it breaks the monotony of a bad pattern- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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