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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week looks like the biggest QPF producer from a nor'easter since maybe 2015? We've had an absence of good slow moving coastals. I suppose there is still a small chance of it becoming interesting, but it would need a lot of help. 

Looks like occluded cutoff low as opposed to a noreaster also the HECS last year was slow moving with over 2 inches of qpf

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

If we didn't have the second storm on its heels, we might be able to have a better chance. The second deepening s/w into the srn Plains helps kick this low north and bring in warmer maritime air just off the deck as it does so. The GGEM does not do that. 

Funny....we haven't been able to buy amplification all season bc of the buzz saw medium, but now we spacing issues.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM was a paste bomb away from coast. But it's the outlier because of the block it is able to form over Hudson Bay. Other guidance doesn't close off the block there and it slides east which allows the warmer air to advect in. 

Let's clarify that some more.  Well inland and N away from the coast.

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

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3 hours ago, Googlymoogly said:

This was painful to read. This guy never says anything useful with his apparent erudite grasp of English, he only condescends those who are trying to understand the contrived and convoluted essays he writes. Plus, he's had more spelling errors than Kevin, based on my secret count. Also, his is perhaps the most transparent facade of pretending not to be bothered by the weather. Just rough. This is sad. This should be a scientific forum. And science welcomes all minds, no matter the intellect. 

Bummer. ANYWAYS, looks like a fun Feb. 

 No "secret counts" required.   I admit it, wholeheartedly, I'm not a naturally gifted speller - to put it nicely. 

As far as not being bothered by the weather - I don't believe I actually ever said that is true? Go dig anything up and I'll tell you why you are comprehending it wrongly.  Not sure where that is coming from.  I've mentioned on several occasions that I don't let it get me down, and I don't.  But I'm not numb to the idea of missing out on winter weather in the winter, or summer weather in the summer.  I have DEFINITELY written plenty of opines in the past that resented others tendencies to evade warm weather topic - but have since given that up too.  This site's contributory members are primarily here because they are more into winter weather type phenomenon than what the other season's have to offer.  I've just matured enough to accept that, and that it's probably more like my own bias to think I could ever inspire interest in summer heatwaves (for example) by pointing out that bias. Duh.  

Please though... you've piqued my interests:  please divulge the secret count...  We're riveted!  

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm down with canes....but the US seasons have just been abdominal for several years running.....T-Storms.....its like being a snow addict in Norfolk, VA-

Nothing better than a Sonoroan heat release. I love all kinds of interesting weather but its been a pretty boring stretch on all fronts. When people assume what others people think they often are wrong. I know many here are weather buffs which mean they appreciate the wild windex event, the ovenly HHH day, the brutal Valentines day wind and cold, the roar of a fall noreaster, the tranquility of a warm spring morning. The optics of snow far exceed any other natural occurrence, the instant transformation is the draw to me.Trying to psychologically interpret every one because of their post predilections has and will remain a foolish endeavor.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Someone say jack?

gem_apcpn_neus_40.png

 

This is interesting...  (though I apparently never say anything worth reading with my erudite grasp of English and broad spectrum of spelling errors... so taken for what it's worth)  when balancing this QPF product against the plethora of other charts.  

The 00z GGEM model run is eye-candy, first and foremost.  As any cogent consumer of weather forecast graphical products on this site would surely agree, at this range, and considering the source (not that you aren't, just sayn') being the Canadian model; it's obviously not too believable. 

That said, the 0 C, 850 mb isotherm is probably what supplies a bit of contention. If using 'freebie' products, it shows that isotherm packed pretty tightly SE along the coast (..about 5.4 miles NW of where ever Scott happens to be that day), while providing some 30 hours or more of QPF totals over an inch every 12 hours ...most importantly, over the sub 0 C side of said isotherm.  -3 to -5 C at that, with multi-day CCB actively hosing clear to Albany and then some.

Then, we look at the snow total ...12" -

Really?   We'd have to have that 12" of snow be complete and utter silvery slush to get that to happen. So, ...SOMEthing is amiss there - OH, right... it's the GGEM. 

But, suppose the QPF is right and the snow product is wrong, and the isotherm (0 C) rule of thumb tended to work out, I think that solution might be the biggest in history. 1888?  Joke!

Anyway, I think the +PNA phase change and the big A. correlation stuff is still in tact.  Unfortunately, the caveat of those statistics not really speaking to snow; that is and was always there.  If it doesn't break right, I'm hoping folks remember that 'real' usefulness there -

The -NAO was encouraging... but, the NAO seems to be dinking around in the guidance since yesterday.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nothing better than a Sonoroan heat release. I love all kinds of interesting weather but its been a pretty boring stretch on all fronts. When people assume what others people think they often are wrong. I know many here are weather buffs which mean they appreciate the wild windex event, the ovenly HHH day, the brutal Valentines day wind and cold, the roar of a fall noreaster, the tranquility of a warm spring morning. The optics of snow far exceed any other natural occurrence, the instant transformation is the draw to me.Trying to psychologically interpret every one because of their post predilections has and will remain a foolish endeavor.

Well said...but the interests of this forum are heavily weighted towards snow.

That being said, it is easy to overlook other areas of interest....I do get intrigued by extreme heat and wind events, but frankly neither are very common around here...especially the latter for me locally.

 

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