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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I could only check AUG for winds in your area, but they had gusts around 30 mph for most of the first half of the month.

Not too surprising given their hilltop location.  I'm in the woods and well sheltered from wind, especially from SW to NW.  That's part of the reason I've still got 17" after last week's thaw.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch that block though up toward Ontario and Hudson Bay between D4-5...Euro is stronger with it this run and if it manages to close off and sit there, then next week all of the sudden becomes more interesting...

I almost expect this to happen. Follow the trend...

This one bears close watching due to the seasonal trend a stronger HP in Quebec and secondary development south of us...

-PNA -NAO fits the mold as well...and again obviously, climatology is favorable...

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Granted ... the "expected" NAO hasn't kicked in yet as of D4 but...  this image should inspire horror in just about any winter weather enthusiasts.  

And, that's not melting down?    not sure why called a cigar a cigar, when it is clearly a cigar is "melting down"  ... anyway, eat this:

 

gfs_namer_096_1000_500_thick.gif

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17 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Medieval Warm Period incoming, plant your fig trees. Palm Trees poping up on Napatree Point.

And not even the slightest, itty bitty, chance that it will get cold in Feb or March. Yup, palm trees, figs, and all sorts of other good things. Boston like Charleston, SC; Worcester like Greenville SC, Burlington VT, the new Ashville, NC. Its coming..... or not

 

I assume you were being as sarcastic as I am

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Granted ... the "expected" NAO hasn't kicked in yet as of D4 but...  this image should inspire horror in just about any winter weather enthusiasts.  

And, that's not melting down?    not sure why called a cigar a cigar, when it is clearly a cigar is "melting down"  ... anyway, eat this:

 

gfs_namer_096_1000_500_thick.gif

You know you really need to work on punctuation a lil more.  And what the hec are you trying to say regarding a cigar??  

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You know you really need to work on punctuation a lil more.  And what the hec are you trying to say regarding a cigar??  

 

Really?   ... in this era of tweetting twits, this - 

gimme a f break.   I've written novels, one of which is in pre-print.  

Anyway, I suppose if you've never heard the expression, 'calling a cigar a cigar' you probably don't understand what that means. 

It means, calling something for what it is.  It seemed a trail of posts came out shortly after Scott and I did just that, and no - sorry.  We're calling it what it is.  

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I don't really know how to read models all that well, but it seems from this that there's a HUGE variability in the possible outcomes for next week (see below)... while in here there seems to be a lot of bridge jumping. It would seem like anything from a cutter to a coastal (to a nada) is possile. Am I interpreting the ensembles incorrectly?

 

Capture.JPG

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really?   ... in this era of tweetting twits, this - 

gimme a f break.   I've written novels, one of which is in pre-print.  

Anyway, I suppose if you've never heard the expression, 'calling a cigar a cigar' you probably don't understand what that means. 

It means, calling something for what it is.  It seemed a trail of posts came out shortly after Scott and I did just that, and no - sorry.  We're calling it what it is.  

He's a whack job. Ignore him 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really?   ... in this era of tweetting twits, this - 

gimme a f break.   I've written novels, one of which is in pre-print.  

Anyway, I suppose if you've never heard the expression, 'calling a cigar a cigar' you probably don't understand what that means. 

It means, calling something for what it is.  It seemed a trail of posts came out shortly after Scott and I did just that, and no - sorry.  We're calling it what it is.  

If you've written novels...then write properly here please...don't think that's to much to ask a person of your intellect. So give me F. Break as well.

 

And I don't tweet..couldn't give two SH*TS about twitter!!  Can't stand it when people continuously just throw jumble crap out there, and expect people to accept it... you of all people should appreciate that..with all your talk about how pathetic the social media age is..

 

And I happen to agree with you calling a spaid, a spaid on the pattern...it sucks. 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If you've written novels...then write properly here please...don't think that's to much to ask a person of your intellect. So give me F. Break as well.

 

And I don't tweet..couldn't give two SH*TS about twitter!!  Can't stand it when people continuously just throw jumble crap out there, and expect people to accept it... you of all people should appreciate that..with all your talk about how pathetic the social media age is..

 

And I happen to agree with you calling a spaid, a spaid on the pattern...it sucks. 

You are not any kind of person to render criticism regarding grammar, when "to" in that context is an adverb, and should have been written as TOO 

 

stop this now - you're out of line and  over-rout, and speaking about subject matter that's clearly over your head to begin with. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You are not any kind of person to render criticism regarding grammar, when "to" in that context is an adverb, and should have been written as TOO 

 

stop this now - you're out of line and  over-rout, and speaking about subject matter that's clearly over your head to begin with. 

Touché John.

Sorry you took that the wrong way...I'm sure we can point out something like the "TO or TOO" on most everybody's posts from time to time.

I realize you have an incredible handle on the English language..and I'm not embarrassed to say, that there are times I find it difficult in understanding, just what it is you're trying to say..like you said "it must be over my head."  So that's where my comnent stemmed from about punctuation/grammar.  Certainly wasn't trying to be over-rout.  

I have no problem admitting your intellect supersedes mine..not only in meteorology, but in most other areas as well I'm sure.  I made a comment on proofreading..not your intellect.  

 

I'm Sorry you found it offensive.

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You are not any kind of person to render criticism regarding grammar, when "to" in that context is an adverb, and should have been written as TOO 

 

stop this now - you're out of line and  over-rout, and speaking about subject matter that's clearly over your head to begin with. 

:lol:

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

Not too surprising given their hilltop location.  I'm in the woods and well sheltered from wind, especially from SW to NW.  That's part of the reason I've still got 17" after last week's thaw.

Checked my notes for early 2015:  They mentioned "breezy" or "windy" (in my terminology, estimated gusts under/over 30) on 7 days in Feb, the strongest winds on 2/15 as the VD event was pounding Machias.  Jan and March each had 10 such mentions, and winter's strongest winds came during the 1/27-28 blizzard.  (Evidence from others and drifting, as we didn't get back from NJ until 12 hr or so after final flakes.)  All 3 months are likely close to the average for breezy/windy days at my tree-surrounded home.

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4 hours ago, alex said:

I don't really know how to read models all that well, but it seems from this that there's a HUGE variability in the possible outcomes for next week (see below)... while in here there seems to be a lot of bridge jumping. It would seem like anything from a cutter to a coastal (to a nada) is possile. Am I interpreting the ensembles incorrectly?

 

Capture.JPG

I interpret that as the ens. mean implying redevelopment...a la Miller B.

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7 hours ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

What the heck is  'over-rout' ?

 

I think he intended "wrought".  I hope everyone--including our budding novelist--can develop proper linguistic and grammatical literacy so that we can discuss models in this thread rather than the recent trend of deconstructing and diagramming sentence structure.  Oy!!

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12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really?   ... in this era of tweetting twits, this - 

gimme a f break.   I've written novels, one of which is in pre-print.  

Anyway, I suppose if you've never heard the expression, 'calling a cigar a cigar' you probably don't understand what that means. 

It means, calling something for what it is.  It seemed a trail of posts came out shortly after Scott and I did just that, and no - sorry.  We're calling it what it is.  

This was painful to read. This guy never says anything useful with his apparent erudite grasp of English, he only condescends those who are trying to understand the contrived and convoluted essays he writes. Plus, he's had more spelling errors than Kevin, based on my secret count. Also, his is perhaps the most transparent facade of pretending not to be bothered by the weather. Just rough. This is sad. This should be a scientific forum. And science welcomes all minds, no matter the intellect. 

Bummer. ANYWAYS, looks like a fun Feb. 

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5 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

This was painful to read. This guy never says anything useful with his apparent erudite grasp of English, he only condescends those who are trying to understand the contrived and convoluted essays he writes. Plus, he's had more spelling errors than Kevin, based on my secret count. Also, his is perhaps the most transparent facade of pretending not to be bothered by the weather. Just rough. This is sad. This should be a scientific forum. And science welcomes all minds, no matter the intellect. 

Bummer. ANYWAYS, looks like a fun Feb. 

You'll never find me with spelling errors. It's one of my strong points 

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