Hazey Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I see the next torch period is waiting in the batters box at day 10 on the euro. Let's hope someone can cash in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: At least it will feel like winter. I'd rather it not if the storms don't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: I see the next torch period is waiting in the batters box at day 10 on the euro. Let's hope someone can cash in next week. That could easily be a snow event that stays south (see 00z run)...no way to tell yet. Cutters are definitely a possibility in this pattern...hopefully we avoid them. We're due for a couple to slide underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That could easily be a snow event that stays south (see 00z run)...no way to tell yet. Cutters are definitely a possibility in this pattern...hopefully we avoid them. We're due for a couple to slide underneath. Oh it's out there. Just stating what the 12z euro shows verbatim. It's like we get a 4-6 day window for something to happen snow wise, then the door gets closed for an extended period of muck weather. I'd love to break that cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Yeah not a snowy run verbatim but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hazey said: Oh it's out there. Just stating what the 12z euro shows verbatim. It's like we get a 4-6 day window for something to happen snow wise, then the door gets closed for an extended period of muck weather. I'd love to break that cycle. The pattern coming up does not support extended periods of muck like we just saw for two plus weeks...this is a totally different longwave regime. We may get a cutter, but it would immediately be followed by very cold air. The specific snow threats at this point are not legible yet...but I think we'll have our chances at least through mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That could easily be a snow event that stays south (see 00z run)...no way to tell yet. Cutters are definitely a possibility in this pattern...hopefully we avoid them. We're due for a couple to slide underneath. That period of the 5th-7th definitely seems to want to wind something up, has for a few days on the GFS/GEFS. Definite cutter potential, but if you're chasing a big one that's probably the time frame to be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I'm more interested in what the Ensembles show today out in the medium and long range. As we all know, the OP runs will go back and forth in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That period of the 5th-7th definitely seems to want to wind something up, has for a few days on the GFS/GEFS. Definite cutter potential, but if you're chasing a big one that's probably the time frame to be watching. Exactly. Kinda like the Jan 6-10 period where it looked primed going back before New Years and it produced. Will this one too? Not sure but it has also looked decent for days as well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The pattern coming up does not support extended periods of muck like we just saw for two plus weeks...this is a totally different longwave regime. We may get a cutter, but it would immediately be followed by very cold air. The specific snow threats at this point are not legible yet...but I think we'll have our chances at least through mid-month. Well, that is great news to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Wow the lack of snow is really getting to everybody, calm down, and watch the models develop the pattern will develop to where storms will be produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That northern Wisconsin belt to N MI and of course the Arrowhead of MN is truly brutal for winter...they rarely ever seen big warmups, and when they do, usually are very short lived. If I had to move out to the middle of the country and had a choice of location, I'd probably pick either the UP of MI, the N WI belt somewhere between Ironwood and Rhinelander, or the Arrowhead of MN...I'd be cold, but the prolific snow would make it worth the trouble. Yeah, definitely. The sustained cold adds to the winter feel. You know there will always be snow on the ground - it's just a matter of how much. I was up in Minocqua and Eagle River WI a few weeks ago, a bit NW of Rhinelander. Beautiful area - the north woods feel with black spruce trees everywhere. Normal high in January is around 20, normal low 0. Once you go slightly NW of there, the seasonal snowfall really increases...as you get into the edge of the Lake Superior snowbelt. With that said - the past two weeks have been brutally non-wintry, even up there. Weatherbo in the Lakes sub-forum said that Marquette just had 9 consecutive days with highs above freezing...the first time this has ever happened in January. For comparison - in the 2013-14 Winter, they had 4 days above freezing during all of DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wow the lack of snow is really getting to everybody, calm down, and watch the models develop the pattern will develop to where storms will be produced. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Any love from the eps? Can't see individual members. Just curious if any are dangling a carrot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The more amped up the first storm is, the more amped up the second storm will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The more amped up the first storm is, the more amped up the second storm will be. This is false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Kind of reminds me of the set up from the first week of Jan. Obviously a different setup but it looked like we'd miss out on both systems in a similar lead time to this. hopefully one works out. We got lucky last time when both produced to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Really big signal for very cold wx super bowl weekend with a big snow event to cap it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 We should really be cursing out the shortwave that gives powderfreak upslope snow tomorrow...that one is really screwing the pooch for what could have been a big event on Monday...we have a very big PNA ridge out west that we could have put to use....but we get interference from that shortwave that comes through tomorrow. At any rate, I wouldn't sell anything yet for Wednesday...Monday is a long shot but stranger things have happened. In addition to the storm that tauntonblizzard mentioned, we also had the Feb 5th storm last winter which went from fish food to a huge hit in very short lead time...inside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Models seem to be sorting out which date to key in on but they all show a big storm somewhere over next 10 days. Ensembles and gut say Wednesday is the likely day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Models seem to be sorting out which date to key in on but they all show a big storm somewhere over next 10 days. Ensembles and gut say Wednesday is the likely day The bolded being the operative word...some of them over the Flemish cap and some over Chicago (D10)...I agree that Wednesday is our best shot at a good pure advisory snow event...maybe even warning if everything went right. But that system faces issues too because of wave spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you would say that. Bowling ball season is of a different ilk.....I think our best shot is then. Yeah... i agree... maybe then. But (not that you asked) f that man! Unlike my fellow die-hard winter weather enthusiastic brethren, I couldn't give two schizers about anything having to do with winter after about March 17 ... In fact, if we got an April blizzard on April 1st, it would have to really be exactly like 1997 or even bigger for me to care. I just lose it for this season on a pretty steep slope in March ...actually, that slope probably begins around Feb 20th for me. By then, parked cars on sunny days are start roasting inside and that increased solar is like tapping on the shoulder to get over it. I don't' have any problem with inevitability - ....with the possible exception of the inevitability the April will be a god forsaken dystopian misty cold dank misery. Rubbed in, too, as it will be 70 in ALB while that unrelents - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... i agree... maybe then. But (not that you asked) f that man! Unlike my fellow die-hard winter weather enthusiastic brethren, I couldn't give two schizers about anything having to do with winter after about March 17 ... In fact, if we got an April blizzard on April 1st, it would have to really be exactly like 1997 or even bigger for me to care. I just lose it for this season on a pretty steep slope in March ...actually, that slope probably begins around Feb 20th for me. By then, parked cars on sunny days are start roasting inside and that increased solar is like tapping on the shoulder to get over it. I don't' have any problem with inevitability - ....with the possible exception of the inevitability the April will be a god forsaken dystopian misty cold dank misery. Rubbed in, too, as it will be 70 in ALB while that unrelents - There it is. Tip's hot car post! It never fails. Late Jan this year. The coldest time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We should really be cursing out the shortwave that gives powderfreak upslope snow tomorrow...that one is really screwing the pooch for what could have been a big event on Monday...we have a very big PNA ridge out west that we could have put to use....but we get interference from that shortwave that comes through tomorrow. At any rate, I wouldn't sell anything yet for Wednesday...Monday is a long shot but stranger things have happened. In addition to the storm that tauntonblizzard mentioned, we also had the Feb 5th storm last winter which went from fish food to a huge hit in very short lead time...inside of 60 hours. I did notice some of the 12z guidance giving a bit of a norlun look for the Monday deal... which gives me pause that there may be something left for that threat still. Either way, it's already Thursday night so we need to see some big changes soon because there is a ton of work to do to even get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There it is. Tip's hot car post! It never fails. Late Jan this year. The coldest time of year doesn't make it untrue... But, let's enjoy all that February will fail to deliver as promised, first - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Folks need to toss Monday. Move onto the Wednesday snower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Dammit missed a hailer at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Folks need to toss Monday. Move onto the Wednesday snower Nice cutter on EPS day 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice cutter on EPS day 11 A lot of CAD showing up though with a bulging of the isobars south of SNE, so it could easily be a redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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