Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 And the GFS ain't gonna do it at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GGEM has the James Nichols storm too...well "storm" is a bit of a stretch...its like an inverted trough that gives a coating to an inch to SE MA/Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GGEM def looks healthier than the GFS for the clipper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gotta get the gfs on board. We do ... but, fwiw this Euro's type of storm generation is just about precisely the form that is way more favored in a higher gradient ...uber fast flow. I opined at length about it recently... "I" like seeing a solutions that agree with keeping the latitudes narrow - Which, not that you or anyone asked ... this fast flow issue that keeps evolving every time the continent tries to cool off is really hurting the major mass field corrective type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM def looks healthier than the GFS for the clipper too. It usually does...lol. Too bad it's not the model to hang hats on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We do ... but, fwiw this Euro's type of storm generation is just about precisely the form that is way more favored in a higher gradient ...uber fast flow. I opined at length about it recently... "I" like seeing a solutions that agree with keeping the latitudes narrow - Which, not that you or anyone asked ... this fast flow issue that keeps evolving every time the continent tries to cool off is really hurting the major mass field corrective type events. Definitely progressive for sure. But the ridging out west at least offers a shot of some deepening with the wed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 I would also add that "the pattern" actually began changing some 10 days ago... It's a lengthy process when the whole of the circulation medium from Japan around the hemisphere to western Europe has to modulate though. The last storm was actually an Archembault sort of correlation in my best estimation, as the seeds were sewn for some sort of corrective event when said changes began back whence. They don't always occur, no. But ... when the large system of circulation enters periods of modulation, we tend to find corrective events in general. H. Archembault's research really just statistically points that concept out per verification, as statistical numbers. Which is fantastic for a basic operational usage: -PNA --> +PNA start emphasizing modeled events during that time frame... It worked out nicely, recently. What's happening now is actually sort of a natural evolution off a +PNA...as we push those index modes forward in time. It is not uncommon for the top sort of "summit" of the western ridge, to bifurcate and migrate up in latitude as an anticyclonic circulation up ivo the Alaskan sector. That's your -EPO... albeit, not necessarily agreed upon in terms of magnitude between the various members of x-y-z model camp. Sometimes, ...the +PNA just links up with it and that's when you get your partial split in PV...etc...etc.. Anyway, the pattern changed from a month long persistent -PNA to a +PNA ... now, the evolution continues into a -EPO .. .But I would also add that the -WPO emerging in the western Pacific combined with a +MJO on the left side of the Wheeler course are typically positively/constructively feed-backs and they tend to ignite a +PNA/-EPO given time...so, I'm not sure the current CDC thinking of -PNA is correct. I would tend to go with the CPC's idea of a newly/refreshed/resurged +PNA nearing D10... If I were betting - So, the take away is the general theme of 'winter enthusiast optimism' isn't really fantasy when attempting to be objective about indicators. And ... we'll definitely parade out posts the instant the models lock onto the first signal therein... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That melt in 3 days with chinoooks? No thanks Chicago has much better snow retention than much of the East. An area at your elevation in IL, WI, MI would almost definitely retain snow much better than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: Chicago has much better snow retention than much of the East. An area at your elevation in IL, WI, MI would almost definitely retain snow much better than you. I violently disagree with Chicago or anywhere in Illinois. They torch with the best of them. Very difficult to go lengthy periods or whole winters with pack. Obviously Wisconsin and Michigan . Not even sure why you brought them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I violently disagree with Chicago or anywhere in Illinois. They torch with the best of them. Very difficult to go lengthy periods or whole winters with pack. Obviously Wisconsin and Michigan . Not even sure why you brought them up If it is any use to the conversation at hand: As having lived in western lower Michigan for almost half my life, I can tell you a thing or two about the climate as I experienced it - at least for 20 years worth. In the simplest terms ... they experience slightly colder temperatures and less seasonal snow totals outside the Lakes snow belts - which are meso-beta in scale, but don't represent the entire region (of course..). If one wants to tediously look at the Chicago dailies spanning a 100 years or more, and compare them to BDL or whatever, ...have fun with that popcycle headache. You are likely going to find that the averages are not that dissimilar, with the exceptions that the temps are slightly colder and they Chicago gets less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Hopefully the Feb 2 deal works out bc I'm def. getting to the "piss-or-get-off-pot" point with this season, where I need a big event inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I won't speak for Kevin in torchville, but LAN/FNT is not remotely close in snow retention to my location. Going back to 1980 I can only find 1 year where FNT had at least 1" snow depth for ever day in Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 35 minutes ago, nzucker said: Chicago has much better snow retention than much of the East. An area at your elevation in IL, WI, MI would almost definitely retain snow much better than you. That's true, but it doesn't include most of this area. Chicago's snow retention is horrible compared to interior SNE. They average 44 days per year with >= 1" of snow OTG. A place like ORH is around 75 days...Kevin would probably be in the neighborhood of 65 days....Ray's area in NE MA is similar. Even torchville BDL is 54 days. They do beat BOS out in the harbor who I believe average 38 days of snow cover...but that's about it...even interior SE MA does better...Walpole coop averages in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's true, but it doesn't include most of this area. Chicago's snow retention is horrible compared to interior SNE. They average 44 days per year with >= 1" of snow OTG. A place like ORH is around 75 days...Kevin would probably be in the neighborhood of 65 days....Ray's area in NE MA is similar. Even torchville BDL is 54 days. They do beat BOS out in the harbor who I believe average 38 days of snow cover. He seems to think NYC and Dobbs Ferry and really that whole mid Atlantic area he lives in has the same climate as New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: I won't speak for Kevin in torchville, but LAN/FNT is not remotely close in snow retention to my location. Going back to 1980 I can only find 1 year where FNT had at least 1" snow depth for ever day in Jan and Feb. Even GRR, which averages 10" more snowfall per season than ORH, only roughly matches the ORH total for days with 1" or more snow depth (GRR was 73 days of snow cover)...so that would mean they retain it worse if they are getting more but only having the same number of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully the Feb 2 deal works out bc I'm def. getting to the "piss-or-get-off-pot" point with this season, where I need a big event inside 5 days. Heh, not likely this season.... I'm sure you've read all this (and reasons therein) before blah blah blah but it really is more likely to be a nickle dimer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes...it was actually '06-'07...we had like record warmth and no snow the first two months and then we put up like a -5 for Feb/Mar and got decent snow. 19" snow thru my average halfway point, Jan 31, then 76" thereafter. The pattern change began in mid-Jan, though the snow took until V-Day to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS produces some light snow Pike south on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: GFS produces some light snow Pike south on Monday More like Merrit Pkwy/Rt 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More like Merrit Pkwy/Rt 6. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More like Merrit Pkwy/Rt 6. Has that look of 1-2 fluffy inches from around Auburn south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Weenie 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS is a slight fix at H5 to something more substantial. You guys are such negative nancies, especially Scott. Nah that ain't happening, and watch the models slowly come further northwest with the coastal redevelopment plus the southern stream system has come further into view with this system more and more lately. The GFS is very close to phasing both streams with this storm system for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 EURO has also trended into a favorable position for our storm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, not likely this season.... I'm sure you've read all this (and reasons therein) before blah blah blah but it really is more likely to be a nickle dimer - We just had a large event, but were void of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: EURO has also trended into a favorable position for our storm on Monday. Euros not out yet, meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS and GGEM has been inverted troughs, we all know it is either the models trying to come further northwest with the coastal or actually a norlun trough is going to happen, but we just need a few ticks in the H5 setup to bring up the southern stream shortwave trough to come up the coastline, and then we have a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euros not out yet, meat. 00z Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Come on pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Come on pay attention We have been. System is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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