CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winds gusted 50-65mph regionally..and there was quite a bit of tree and power line damage Winds weren't super strong, but powerful for a prolonged time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm probably close to normal at 22" and change. It's way too early to melt based on the long range. I feel like some of the melts are self-inflicted with the root cause from weenie posts. For the last 7 days there has been a few talking about big potential for next week when nothing was imminent. So, when the progs come up and don't show anything exciting as we get closer, weenies assume it's just another fail promise at an attempt for winter, when indeed nothing was ever imminent. (kevin..cough cough). Anyways, there is still a window for a chance of light snow in that Wednesday-ish clipper next week. What? Find one post where I talked about a storm next week? I initially thought the 28th signal was good. but models lost that. No idea what you're talking about unless you mistook me for Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? Find one post where I talked about a storm next week? I initially thought the 28th signal was good. but models lost that. No idea what you're talking about unless you mistook me for Jimmy No I think "Tip" saw something a while back, a possible long shot somewhere around 30th/31st....I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? Find one post where I talked about a storm next week? I initially thought the 28th signal was good. but models lost that. No idea what you're talking about unless you mistook me for Jimmy Just a few of your "big potential" posts. I dunno....they are there. Anyways, I am hopeful for a decent Feb. Hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, 512high said: No I think "Tip" saw something a while back, a possible long shot somewhere around 30th/31st....I could be wrong There's a difference between discussing potential and locking in specific dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just a few of your "big potential" posts. I dunno....they are there. Anyways, I am hopeful for a decent Feb. Hasn't changed. I never posted that. Not once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There's a difference between discussing potential and locking in specific dates. Yup. Signals come, signals go. A week or so ago the signal was there. Outside of the 3 day period Jan 6-8 and one day in Dec 17, this has been a boring Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I never posted that. Not once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winds weren't super strong, but powerful for a prolonged time. Exactly.Impressive over a protracted period, but nothing excessive. How many power outages in New England? Another one of the "Fraud Five" elements of SNE weather: 1) Inverted troughs/Norluns 2) "Backlash" Snowfall 3) Squalls/"Windex" 4) Severe Weather 5) Damaging Wind/Hurricanes They do impressive on occasion, but failure is baseline.....never expect any on them, and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Except this performed exactly as expected . Winds were expected 50-65mph and that's what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I wouldn't put winds in the Fraud 5, but the term damaging is probably used too frequently. It also depends on where you live too. Obviously interior spots rarely get the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 February looks pretty good to me on long range stuff. Obviously we can't guarantee individual storms but I don't see a reason for melting. Next week hopefully trends better. We have a hell of a PNA ridge so sometimes models will really try and get something going as we get closer when you have a ridge that amped. But don't expect anything as of now. Clipper could be decent if it trends a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except this performed exactly as expected . Winds were expected 50-65mph and that's what happened I didn't see anything happen yesterday that was off base forecast wise, pretty sure being inland cP and not on the coast makes some meh things wind wise more often. Tidal heights were low so coastal flooding was minimal but it wasn't a fraud unless you expected 70-80 mph winds inland. Winter winds rarely cause much trouble tree wise unless caked with snow, we have had multiple thinning episodes the last 5 years so trees left are more resilient. There were scattered big trees down and branches but typical strong storm stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I didn't see anything happen yesterday that was off base forecast wise, pretty sure being inland cP and not on the coast makes some meh things wind wise more often. Tidal heights were low so coastal flooding was minimal but it wasn't a fraud unless you expected 70-80 mph winds inland. Winter winds rarely cause much trouble tree wise unless caked with snow, we have had multiple thinning episodes the last 5 years so trees left are more resilient. There were scattered big trees down and branches but typical strong storm stuff. Yeah I'm not sure what Ray was expecting but the strong winds worked out as forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I'm just upset because I was so sure we were in for a wire to wire blockbuster once we got through December. I'm embarrassed at the level of my bust because in each previous instance I shouted big winter snow wise it happened (see 2010-11 and 2014-15). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I got what I was expecting. The wind, while impressive, was not disruptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm just upset because I was so sure we were in for a wire to wire blockbuster once we got through December. I'm embarrassed at the level of my bust because in each previous instance I shouted big winter snow wise it happened (see 2010-11 and 2014-15). Well it happens, maybe we can stir something up in the climo favored snow weeks but right now its dry beget dry for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: You mean the Thurs-Sun upslope snows won't get your rocks off? Haha. As few people care the set up does look pretty good for several rounds of orographic snows. Exciting for so many on here. Thanks for posting this. does anyone know what that .7qpf area in north central NH is? I want to get a better sense for the best orographic areas here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thanks for posting this. does anyone know what that .7qpf area in north central NH is? I want to get a better sense for the best orographic areas here I would think that is Mount Washington...No??? Around The tallest peaks of the Whites??? That would be my guess by looking at that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Oh shiat...Mark is looking for a new place. If I moved Mark...I'd probably head NE up to the NH side of IZG around North Conway. You average more snow and you get CAD and snow preservation that is just as good, if not better. The upslope spots in the Whites would be too frustrating for me with E flow. Also, in the summer you can get some torchy near 100F days up there with compressional flow off of the Presidentials. There's good rad cooling too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm just upset because I was so sure we were in for a wire to wire blockbuster once we got through December. I'm embarrassed at the level of my bust because in each previous instance I shouted big winter snow wise it happened (see 2010-11 and 2014-15). What made you think Epicosity Jerry??? Just wondering?? Not that I know anything that you don't, or more than you in any way, cuz I don't ...but I never was thinking Blockbuster in any way for this winter from what I was reading from various long range ideas. And personally..I don't think blockbuster winters can be predicted...those patterns seem to just kind of morph into something spectacular from what look to be good patterns as we approach them. They just kind of happen it seems. And We've all seen great patterns that just don't produce much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 I know it's my 'theoretical baby' so admittedly ...I may be a little biased here, but I see a colder look to the pattern, only. Not necessarily stormy.. I labored through a longer post yesterday so I won't do so now (yeah right). ...but, the old nemesis of over-abundant gradient is also a part of that up-coming colder complexion. These present modeled waves that look impressive up in Canada, but then slope banally positive and behave ...sort of like flat rocks skipping off the surface of a pond as they get 'deflected' and pancake against the southern warm-ish height preponderant wall, that behavior is more believable than organized cyclones. Some people refer to this sort of predicament as "compression" ? Okay, that works too... But getting into the southern heights aspect just tries to dig into why - and I think it's more than mere 'compression' over the Americas. I mean, we can have compression in any years,...even in the Maunder Minimum ... but, I suppose what I am getting at is that "compression" is easy now, easier this year than normal. Why? ...probably left over Hemispheric heat surplus from last years Super Nino... probably spiced with GW... with sprinkle cheese of a 20 + F warm anomaly in the cold source regions not helping to cool said surplus in the larger heat source/sink equation. You name it, what is served is a hand-wringer winter. The average latitude of the 582 dm height contour [appears] situated some amount N of normal ... As far as me mentioning prospects from a while back - impetus there is ... "a while back" ..Given time, this sort of gradient poisoned look came into clearer focus and as such, the prospect for more organization is offset in my mind. The fact of the matter is, the wave 'timing' is still essentially intact - their spatial construct ... not so much. So we end up with cold whiskey flurry assaults around re-enforcing shots of modified faux -EPO air until further notice. Wish I had better news for the snow hearts but... if it is any consolation, there are still two ways to overcome these limitations: one, shallow potency; two, so much hugemanugus powerful wave that it ends up planetary rooted - like March 1993. The latter doesn't appear likely, ...at least for the next 10 days (such vile demonstrations of raw power tend to pop up earlier in guidance source work), so... As Scott intimated, a Novie 1987 type flat wave with a powerful v-max running off NJ might do the shallow potency idea. Those small scaled systems, they tend to nestle inbetween the teleconnectors as they are less rooted in said planetary mass modulations... and egh. In the end ... a colder look to the pattern is certainly better than a hotter look as we need February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh shiat...Mark is looking for a new place. If I moved Mark...I'd probably head NE up to the NH side of IZG around North Conway. You average more snow and you get CAD and snow preservation that is just as good, if not better. The upslope spots in the Whites would be too frustrating for me with E flow. Also, in the summer you can get some torchy near 100F days up there with compressional flow off of the Presidentials. There's good rad cooling too. Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The proverbial "fat lady" (sorry to those who need trigger warnings for politically incorrect thought crime) has a long time to go before she sings. This past event performed rather well here in ORH. A couple more warmish days then it steps down toward normal. Feb and March might brings some very pleasant surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thanks for posting this. does anyone know what that .7qpf area in north central NH is? I want to get a better sense for the best orographic areas here Bretton Woods area I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Jackson You need to pick your preference up there...lower els with rad cooling/torchy summer days/snow preservation versus higher els with cooler days/less preservation in cutters/a bit more snow/bigger snow events. Over the past few years I've grown to appreciate the CAD here during cutters. I'd rather be hugging 33F for an extra 12-24hrs during torchy WAA and spiking to 40F briefly during the cold frontal passage instead of averaging a little more snow, but watching it melt away at 50F while the valleys below keep it. One big elevation paste bomb while I rain will probably make me change my tune, but that's where I stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh shiat...Mark is looking for a new place. If I moved Mark...I'd probably head NE up to the NH side of IZG around North Conway. You average more snow and you get CAD and snow preservation that is just as good, if not better. The upslope spots in the Whites would be too frustrating for me with E flow. Also, in the summer you can get some torchy near 100F days up there with compressional flow off of the Presidentials. There's good rad cooling too. Yeah depends on what you'd rather be frustrated with...NW or SE flow. The thing is if you like to be involved in the bigger region wide events, you probably want to be on the southeast side of the Presidentials. I personally like doing ok with both NW and SE flow, ha ha...but the Whites seem to have a lot less spillover than the Greens... if all you get is NW flow snow you get snow when no one else does, and then when everyone else gets snow you don't get much. So you sort of in your own world in that regard. Don't expect to share your experience with a lot of people on the forum, if you are NW of the Whites, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah depends on what you'd rather be frustrated with...NW or SE flow. The thing is if you like to be involved in the bigger region wide events, you probably want to be on the southeast side of the Presidentials. I personally like doing ok with both NW and SE flow, ha ha...but if all you get is NW flow snow you get snow when no one else does, and then when everyone else gets snow you don't get much. So you sort of in your own world in that regard. Don't expect to share your experience with a lot of people on the forum, if you are NW of the Whites, ha. There's not a lot of places I'd want to live in the Whites that get decent upslope snow. Obviously Pittsburg does really well, but there's not much for a livability factor. The higher els E of HIE are OK, but they don't get the upslope you do at the elevations where there are actually residential homes. My QPF hole here is bad enough...I couldn't handle the one around HIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I'm just upset because I was so sure we were in for a wire to wire blockbuster once we got through December. I'm embarrassed at the level of my bust because in each previous instance I shouted big winter snow wise it happened (see 2010-11 and 2014-15). It happens to all of us.. last season schooled me, aside from the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Anyways...Mark quoted your NAM image which I believe was the 12km NAM. Even though 12km is good resolution, it's still a bit broad brushed compared to reality. Maybe the 3km overdoes it a bit for the peaks like the BTV WRF does, but the point remains that most of the feast resides where no one lives while it's relatively famine elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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