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Model Mayhem III!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Arguably mid level magic was the best of all of them and that was 2/14-15.

That month was superbly cold..but for us folks out this way(central and western)it wasn't anywhere near as memorable as it was for you guys out east!!   

 

Once east of the river..things ramped up exponentially!!  Back this way it wasn't spectacular.    It was good,  but not spectacular!

 

And I mean that whole stretch of 1/26-February.   Not just the mid level magic deal.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That month was superbly cold..but for us folks out this way(central and western)it wasn't anywhere near as memorable as it was for you guys out east!!   

 

Once east of the river..things ramped up exponentially!!  Back this way it wasn't spectacular.    It was good,  but not spectacular!

 

And I mean that whole stretch of 1/26-February.   Not just the mid level magic deal.

The more east you went the better it was. I did okay so can't complain but it was epic Closer to the coast.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That month was superbly cold..but for us folks out this way(central and western)it wasn't anywhere near as memorable as it was for you guys out east!!   

 

Once east of the river..things ramped up exponentially!!  Back this way it wasn't spectacular.    It was good,  but not spectacular!

 

And I mean that whole stretch of 1/26-February.   Not just the mid level magic deal.

Odd month, easily the coldest for any month at my place and Farmington's coldest Feb since records began in 1893, yet no daily cold records, just near-continuous days 10-15 BN with a few even colder.  We began the month with 26" at the stake, had 23.5" snowfall (about 1" AN) without any non-snow precip, the temp exceeded 30 for about 4 hours all month, and we finished with a snowpack of...26".  Sure, the ratios were high (17.7), but not outlandish.  Depth peaked at 31" on 2/2, after which we had another 16" and somehow lost 5" depth.

The event of 2/14-15 was the final mega-bust (forecast 12-18", got 1.5") of a good but frustrating winter.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Odd month, easily the coldest for any month at my place and Farmington's coldest Feb since records began in 1893, yet no daily cold records, just near-continuous days 10-15 BN with a few even colder.  We began the month with 26" at the stake, had 23.5" snowfall (about 1" AN) without any non-snow precip, the temp exceeded 30 for about 4 hours all month, and we finished with a snowpack of...26".  Sure, the ratios were high (17.7), but not outlandish.  Depth peaked at 31" on 2/2, after which we had another 16" and somehow lost 5" depth.

The event of 2/14-15 was the final mega-bust (forecast 12-18", got 1.5") of a good but frustrating winter.

Tamarak, that bust is insane. In today's day and age of hi tech modeling...busts of that magnitude one would think, should be things of the past??   

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Odd month, easily the coldest for any month at my place and Farmington's coldest Feb since records began in 1893, yet no daily cold records, just near-continuous days 10-15 BN with a few even colder.  We began the month with 26" at the stake, had 23.5" snowfall (about 1" AN) without any non-snow precip, the temp exceeded 30 for about 4 hours all month, and we finished with a snowpack of...26".  Sure, the ratios were high (17.7), but not outlandish.  Depth peaked at 31" on 2/2, after which we had another 16" and somehow lost 5" depth.

The event of 2/14-15 was the final mega-bust (forecast 12-18", got 1.5") of a good but frustrating winter.

Ah the St. Valentine's Day massacre as we call it at GYX. For whatever reason our forecasts just kept increasing and increasing, and I was helpless at home to stop it. :weep:

As for the snow depth that month, probably a lot to do with the wind. And wind is one of the two biggest factors in the perceived "settling" of snow. Wind obviously compacts the snow by shattering crystals. Temps (and RH) can actually alter the crystal structure and allow compaction that way. It was probably cold and dry enough during that stretch to sublimate some of the snow pack too.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ah the St. Valentine's Day massacre as we call it at GYX. For whatever reason our forecasts just kept increasing and increasing, and I was helpless at home to stop it. :weep:

As for the snow depth that month, probably a lot to do with the wind. And wind is one of the two biggest factors in the perceived "settling" of snow. Wind obviously compacts the snow by shattering crystals. Temps (and RH) can actually alter the crystal structure and allow compaction that way. It was probably cold and dry enough during that stretch to sublimate some of the snow pack too.

Oceanstate...why were the forecasts going up and up?? Were you out sick/vacation during that event?? 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oceanstate...why were the forecasts going up and up?? Were you out sick/vacation during that event?? 

I just looked back through emails. I just happened to be off, but was scheduled to come in for OT the night of to help out (that clearly didn't happen). I remember vividly there was some QPF queening going on in the office. And then I think we jumped on warnings too early, and once they were out there we weren't going to take them down, just in case.

I also went back and looked at our stats. 32 WSWs (we have 36 zones), 11 verified (mostly in southern NH). Also 17 blizzard warnings, none of which verified.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What did yesterday's weeklies look like?

A little tamer but still very good. They started to shift the ridging a bit west as dateline heights rose from last run and pna heights (still high) dropped a bit. Basically it may eventually find a home at Nina  base state down the road, but that's extrapolating.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Steve and Scott-matches MJO progs not surprisingly.

 

As far as 2012 comparison-as silly as it gets.  I've already had twice that season's total snow and periods of sustained cold.  Although maybe a tongue in cheek post?

You guys had a nice Jan event down there, but it's shaping up to be an epic ratter of a month up this way. We'll see how tonight shakes out, but it's looking like well below normal snow and well above normal temps. At least December was pretty sweet. Hopefully it's all systems go by 2/1.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Steve and Scott-matches MJO progs not surprisingly.

 

As far as 2012 comparison-as silly as it gets.  I've already had twice that season's total snow and periods of sustained cold.  Although maybe a tongue in cheek post?

Yes I agree that it's better than 2012(have about what I had in total for 2012 already this season), but was just liking it to the possibility that the pattern change never gets here like in 2012.   Scott just said everything looks good and on track after next week, so hope that plays out for us.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You guys had a nice Jan event down there, but it's shaping up to be an epic ratter of a month up this way. We'll see how tonight shakes out, but it's looking like well below normal snow and well above normal temps. At least December was pretty sweet. Hopefully it's all systems go by 2/1.

Looks like you will end near 12/13

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yeah ... all that grousing and hand-throwing, ...and, Meteorologically/operationally it's actually interesting (holy crap) that the NAO has suddenly taken such a backseat in the operational guidance - or has it? 

In one respect, seeing the bigger A. signal next week now take the form as a wound early west turner, with little or no semblance of secondary (may as well just be a terminating warm sector in the Euro!)...that all argues for +NAO if anything.  

Yet, stepping back, all the operational runs still maintain some hint at blocking, simultaneously,with the above attempt. That's represented in how the flow is getting squeezed from both side, west to east, while all that is happening.  With two distinct trough axis ending up squarely inside the domain space of the continental U.S., complete wave configuration and all, ah...I'm a little apprehensive to buy that.. I'm not sure I'm willing to take that overall synoptic appeal/evolution at 00z face value.  

For one, the NAO is notoriously difficult to handle in the models. If next week doesn't actually follow the original foresight of the runs (and their ensemble means), failing to go negative/back-stab the outlook like that... okay.  That's part in parcel to expectations with the NAO mass-field/teleconnector. We don't have much to argue.  A. signals don't convey enhancing threats for "snow."    

However, the 00z (GEFs anyway; haven't seen the EPS) still maintain the negative NAO for 3-5 day span centered around next week's shenanigans. So... long and the short:  the tenor of the models could easily swing back toward colder scenarios.  It becomes ever more clear to me that ... the actually winter storm events are fun in people's minds who are drawn to this sort of communal joy, BUT, it's really more about the model run up and the general sort of dystopian vibe those model illustrate in potential that really folks seem to get down about missing.  This season has been very interesting in that regard - most of our winter-like events have come with less notice, ...not providing that stage to awe upon. It's like we're listening to nothing than suddenly hearing a punch-line.  It 'sounds' funny, but we don't know whether to laugh.  

ah, what can you do... In the meantime, the most dependable of all models, the GGEM...still brings a crippling snow to the cordillera of the Apps and into NYS - that's something.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Good post Tip. 

I think the storm early next week--around hr 130-- def still bears watching considering the theme of the season to develop a secondary along the coast. 

A -NAO and an "early bloomer" over central plains certainly helps the case. I think we're seeing a very active pattern (chaos) causing chaos in the model solutions.

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