dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 12:40 PM, dendrite said: You still see the scars here from time to time. Post traumatic negative NAO disorder. "We want a -NAO...but not too negative." Expand We have not had to worry about one for quite a while that was on roids, It is helpful no doubt especially further south for more wintry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I just think some of these long range guys are way too indicies based. There's more to it than AO and EPO and PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:30 PM, dendrite said: We have a Expand It's only the 2nd time this season... Come on, don't you get sick of hearing "Congrats Dendrite" all the time, when we haven't been close to a jack in 5 years? Yet everyone thinks we jack all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I thought the eps looked pretty good and actually improved in the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:53 PM, weathafella said: I thought the eps looked pretty good and actually improved in the 0Z run. Expand What improved, the position of the EPO ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:56 PM, Powderboy413 said: What improved, the position of the EPO ridge? Expand EPO ridge improved near the end of the run with weak ridging into eastern nao areas enabling our area to be better positioned. I also th Ugh the EPO ridge was maybe a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:26 PM, mahk_webstah said: a dry period of average to slightly below temps? Expand How do you know this upcoming period will be dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:43 PM, mahk_webstah said: It's only the 2nd time this season... Come on, don't you get sick of hearing "Congrats Dendrite" all the time, when we haven't been close to a jack in 5 years? Yet everyone thinks we jack all the time. Expand I just didn't figure there was much else to do up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 3:13 PM, Snow88 said: How do you know this upcoming period will be dry? Expand Local weather guy just said he doesn't see any storms in the ten day forecast after this. lol..we know that could change...but wow that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:43 PM, mahk_webstah said: It's only the 2nd time this season... Come on, don't you get sick of hearing "Congrats Dendrite" all the time, when we haven't been close to a jack in 5 years? Yet everyone thinks we jack all the time. Expand We don't exactly live in a jackpot zone of big snows. We basically need a deformation band to pivot and rot over us. We had a nice streak of them in that 08-11 range and of course the frequent SWFEs in 07-09. SWFEs aren't delivering a foot plus though. CCBs are more rare. Feb 14 (I think it was) was pretty good. We have quite a few ways to rack up 8-12" events, but the 20"+ ones are more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 3:13 PM, Snow88 said: How do you know this upcoming period will be dry? Expand How do you know it will not be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 3:19 PM, Zeus said: I just didn't figure there was much else to do up there. Expand Yeah I guess I walked into that... but there's things to do up here, I mean there's a lot of barn animals and stuff, and a lot of burly men in flannel. I think Scott would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'll be honest, I'm not overly impressed or optimistic about the look going forward. Looking at the models nothing really sticks out as a period to watch for a potential storm. The pattern improves a bit from what we see now, so hopefully something can pop in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The 12z GFS is a nightmare in the LR. We get cold but the trough axis is too far east so any Miller Bs develop too late (though Im sure that will change as we near and be congrats ENE) and then it warms up at the very end of the run. Anyone know if the Euro has any chances toward the end of its run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This is starting to have a 1959-60 feel. Frustrating winter with a big reward as the clock was winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I thought the 12z euro looked decent in the mid to long range. Too soon for storm details but I think something will show up in the 7-10day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Usually when the weenies start with total despair something good happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:10 PM, weathafella said: Usually when the weenies start with total despair something good happens. Expand Especially in mid to late January. It's happened twice already in the last 4 years...weenies were starting to melt in late January 2013 and 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 And EPS continues to look better in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The long range is ok. We may be playing with the SE ridge, but that's nina. Maybe it sucks, but I don't see anything glaring that says to cancel winter. If you're smart...you'd approach it with normal expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:50 PM, CoastalWx said: The long range is ok. We may be playing with the SE ridge, but that's nina. Maybe it sucks, but I don't see anything glaring that says to cancel winter. If you're smart...you'd approach it with normal expectations. Expand PNA becomes more crucial with the SE ridge. Ridge too far west and it's messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:52 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: PNA becomes more crucial with the SE ridge. Ridge too far west and it's messy. Expand Yes. That's why EPS improved because it was not as far west as 2 days ago. Also ridging was rebuilding at the end of the run to me. But without that ridge we need NAO which hasn't worked lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:50 PM, weathafella said: And EPS continues to look better in the long range. Expand Still don't understand any angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 9:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: Still don't understand any angst. Expand Peeps want wall to wall cold/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:57 PM, weathafella said: Yes. That's why EPS improved because it was not as far west as 2 days ago. Also ridging was rebuilding at the end of the run to me. But without that ridge we need NAO which hasn't worked lately. Expand Yeah the cold will be there. But I still have some concern for inside runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Anyone ready to start the 17-18 Winter thread yet? On the other hand, all we need is a couple of big region wide snow events and a two week spell of (mostly) subfreezing temps and the melt downs will turn into dancing snowmen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 8:10 PM, weathafella said: Usually when the weenies start with total despair something good happens. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 9:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah the cold will be there. But I still have some concern for inside runners. Expand That is the worst imo...been a classic 80s winter. Just get rid of the cold if the damn things are gonna cut. I can't stand anymore slop fests.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 1:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the worst imo...been a classic 80s winter. Just get rid of the cold if the damn things are gonna cut. I can't stand anymore slop fests.. Expand I don't think anyone saw this winter long 80's pattern setting up when issuing winter forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 1:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think anyone saw this winter long 80's pattern setting up when issuing winter forecasts Expand Lol climo is a b**ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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