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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS trends much warmer days 11-15. Man .. what happened? 

Not really.  It looked like a nice pattern.  Not sure what you saw....

great looking ridge there should keep Canada frigid and give us storm chances.  PNA comes down but ridge actually rebuilds at the end of the run.

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54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes it's not as cold but that's not the point.   Cold enough to snow on eps every day 11-15.  In fact, your anomaly gif looks normal which is just fine for the bottom of winter.

His statement was correct though...the EPS warmed significantly in the Day 11-15 time frame.  Is it just a hiccup?  Very possible.  But he's right, it did change quite a bit.

Its well known that I'm on the train of above normal temps can snow and snow big, but its not a slam dunk sweet long range pattern yet.

 

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The EPS pattern looked fine...esp for our latitude...it has a nice ridge over the Bering and EPO region and it is plenty cold.

 

If anything, the Pacific looked better than the 00z run...the EPO ridge was betetr...the only reason the temps were colder on the 00z run was there was a PV lobe sort of squashing heights really low in Quebec, and I'm not sure you'd want to "count on that"...it's no biggie though. I'd actually take the longwave pattern at 12z over the 00z pattern.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS pattern looked fine...esp for our latitude...it has a nice ridge over the Bering and EPO region and it is plenty cold.

 

If anything, the Pacific looked better than the 00z run...the EPO ridge was betetr...the only reason the temps were colder on the 00z run was there was a PV lobe sort of squashing heights really low in Quebec, and I'm not sure you'd want to "count on that"...it's no biggie though. I'd actually take the longwave pattern at 12z over the 00z pattern.

EPS with a split vortex and a ridge bridge forming day 15

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Yes it's not as cold but that's not the point.   Cold enough to snow on eps every day 11-15.  In fact, your anomaly gif looks normal which is just fine for the bottom of winter.

 

 

look at H5 for what you need to see.

It's a temp change lol BFD it's still cold

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

His statement was correct though...the EPS warmed significantly in the Day 11-15 time frame.  Is it just a hiccup?  Very possible.  But he's right, it did change quite a bit.

Its well known that I'm on the train of above normal temps can snow and snow big, but its not a slam dunk sweet long range pattern yet.

 

Yeah I would be worried if I was living at 1500 ft in NVT

KMVL_2017012012_eps_min_max_15.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

His statement was correct though...the EPS warmed significantly in the Day 11-15 time frame.  Is it just a hiccup?  Very possible.  But he's right, it did change quite a bit.

Its well known that I'm on the train of above normal temps can snow and snow big, but its not a slam dunk sweet long range pattern yet.

 

No it's not at all. I am becoming increasingly worried 

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Highly dynamic upper level trough enters the eastern US between the 26th and 30th of January, several disturbances amplify the flow on the GFS para and most guidance for several moderate snowstorms to impact New England.  Trough enters the Eastern US in five days.

Not gonna happen James.

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Highly dynamic upper level trough enters the eastern US between the 26th and 30th of January, several disturbances amplify the flow on the GFS para and most guidance for several moderate snowstorms to impact New England.  Trough enters the Eastern US in five days.

Show me most guidance other than the para GFS.  

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10 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Highly dynamic upper level trough enters the eastern US between the 26th and 30th of January, several disturbances amplify the flow on the GFS para and most guidance for several moderate snowstorms to impact New England.  Trough enters the Eastern US in five days.

Joe Cioffi also likes the end of the month for a possible storm

I think the end of January into the start of February will be a good shot. There are a lot of vorts running around. I think we need to get this weekends storm out of the way first before we focus on the upcoming pattern.

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1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said:

I know its the 12z GFS op but it does have many chances after the 27th or so. A lot of meltdowns happening lately but  after the 27th is looking favorable for snow chances in all of SNE. Im starting to think February could be similar to that of 2014, any thoughts on that?

I think the latest guidence gives us a good window till early Feb. Then the possibility od regression to a less favorable state.

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