CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 They still keep the Nino look which I don't quite buy, but we shall see. Even the end of the ensemble today had a different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, FXWX said: In general, they keep a broad 500 mb western ridge / eastern trough configuration through Feb. With time heights are indicated above run a bit above normal across the eastern half of the country, but the basic flow owuld still support a normal to at least modestly colder than normal conditions... I don't really pay much attention to 850 temps and just follow 500 mb tendencies. Certainly a pattern the east can work with given air mass origin region into central and eastern US. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Long range still looks promising. The PNA may try to go negative, but a few different looks from December have me a little more positive. If the EPS is right, some weak ridging into ern Greenland. Also, a mighty stout dateline into western AK ridge will keep the vortex in Canada. Also, thanks to the mega +PNA ridge to start...I like seeing the GFS op show some storm chances. Sometimes the op runs can hint at things. They never had a good look (esp SNE) during December and part of Jan and ended up being right. They are starting to show some storms in the extended which is nice to see. Op runs are usually clown solutions beyond day 10...but they can hint at things if you know how to use them. Of course as the PNA drops we risk some issues...but it looks like money in the bank for a good chunk of Feb in Canada so we work with that and let the cards fall as they may. I wouldn't really count on a fab Feb, but certainly a more wintry month is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range still looks promising. The PNA may try to go negative, but a few different looks from December have me a little more positive. If the EPS is right, some weak ridging into ern Greenland. Also, a mighty stout dateline into western AK ridge will keep the vortex in Canada. Also, thanks to the mega +PNA ridge to start...I like seeing the GFS op show some storm chances. Sometimes the op runs can hint at things. They never had a good look (esp SNE) during December and part of Jan and ended up being right. They are starting to show some storms in the extended which is nice to see. Op runs are usually clown solutions beyond day 10...but they can hint at things if you know how to use them. Of course as the PNA drops we risk some issues...but it looks like money in the bank for a good chunk of Feb in Canada so we work with that and let the cards fall as they may. I wouldn't really count on a fab Feb, but certainly a more wintry month is possible. Hi Scott, Tip was saying keep an eye on 1/28-30? is that now gone or only one model showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, 512high said: Hi Scott, Tip was saying keep an eye on 1/28-30? is that now gone or only one model showing? Yeah, still valid. Nothing imminent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, still valid. Nothing imminent though. ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 How much longer is the cold going to be bottled up north? Next 7 days looks pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yes the 28-30th pattern looks interesting, a ton of energy involved in the northern stream and the troughing over the eastern US could lead to a storm or two in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Very cold air comes in around day ten on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS has a good miller B snowstorm impacting SNE in the day 10 timeframe with very cold air overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 operational GFS model keeps a +PNA in the region for a while, throughout its entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS has a good miller B snowstorm impacting SNE in the day 10 timeframe with very cold air overhead. Could you summarize your thinking in a paragraph instead of these one-line posts a minute apart? It makes the site unreadable, since most of the page is devoted to seeing the sports records for your favorite team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 hours ago, 512high said: Hi Scott, Tip was saying keep an eye on 1/28-30? is that now gone or only one model showing? It's still there as a suggestion... the 12z run is trying to realize it bit more. Definitely has a mid level "inflection of interest" (speaking of the operational run) centered more on the 29th, and also has the vagueness of development from the OV to NE regions on the 28th ...etc... The 00z GEFs members individually carry some semblance of a cyclogenesis/disturbance during that time frame as well.. The impetus behind bringing that up in the first place is that the PNA seemed to really flex between this first system early next week, and that particular period of time, so it seemed as good as any to pick for having any impulses nested in there to get more interesting in time. It's probably too early for that... but the canvas would still accept that paint, so to speak - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said: Could you summarize your thinking in a paragraph instead of these one-line posts a minute apart? It makes the site unreadable, since most of the page is devoted to seeing the sports records for your favorite team. The ignore function can be modified to apply exclusively to signatures, or even to the complete posting output of a singular user. The choice is yours, and yours alone! Just like on Legends of the Hidden Temple. I miss Olmec sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said: Could you summarize your thinking in a paragraph instead of these one-line posts a minute apart? It makes the site unreadable, since most of the page is devoted to seeing the sports records for your favorite team. This. I keep begging him to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, Zeus said: The ignore function can be modified to apply exclusively to signatures, or even to the complete posting output of a singular user. The choice is yours, and yours alone! Just like on Legends of the Hidden Temple. I miss Olmec sometimes. I didn't know the ignore part could be selective. That's neat. I wouldn't ignore him, as I like his posts. But maybe I will like them better without so much scrolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: I didn't know the ignore part could be selective. That's neat. I wouldn't ignore him, as I like his posts. But maybe I will like them better without so much scrolling Scrolling reduction cheat sheet: Ignore the signatures of users with bulky signatures Ignore the posts of bulky users Ignore me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, Zeus said: Scrolling reduction cheat sheet: Ignore the signatures of users with bulky signatures Ignore the posts of bulky users Ignore me no problem - most would gladly ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I don't get the fussing over scrolling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Couple of snow chances after the 25th, a shortwave looks to move through the upper level trough that finally moves into our region by the 27th and gives CNE for now a snowfall, but if it was further south than the CMC had it than we could have a widespread snowfall for SNE sometime Friday/Saturday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 We could still have a cold air mass overhead with a +AO regime, and with a +PNA regime present. Just 20-30" storms won't be 30-40" storms and 6-12" storms won't be 18-24" storms, I can deal with that, frequent miller B snowstorms bringing 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Tip, I think it was you, apologies if it wasn't, who mentioned an abrupt and early end to winter this year? Just wondering what your thoughts are on this as the winter progresses. THX. Ahhh, guilty...but only partially so? I don't speak for ever user on the board... .but, I id pose some observations along with subsequent supposition based upon that obs, over the course of the last month; there was something deeper (and wrong) about the whole hemispheric manifold that I was not sure merely changing the pattern over top would correct. But, that was/is completely supposition on my part and not really meant as a prediction? Hopefully that's clear. Having said that, what it related to was that the heights in the subtropical latitudes everywhere seemed to be having trouble receding, seasonally, as the winter got into December ...really that's still case, though some recession in the guidance over the last 10 days has been noted. Not talking a large positive geopotential anomaly, just on the order of 2 to 5 DM, but ubiquitous enough that the entire cooling aspect of the hemisphere over top was "pressing" and compressing the hell out of it. The suppostion more specifically as that it could be causing the unusually fast flow that plagued everywhere really. The stuff about ending winter early was partially tongue in cheek, but it was related to a notion that if the PNA and/or EPO were to relax together, we'd be in for a world of warm hurt! That could almost be argued as true in any winter season, of course, but... with the preponderance of the deep south heights it logically follows(ed) that it would worse this particularly year. That still seems true to me. But, it's likely moot because... the PNA is positive and is about to surge in that regard over the next 10 days, and then...it may very well relay into a -EPO heading into February. That's based upon multiple guidance sources and their derivatives ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 With a +PNA, present after our nor'easter on Tuesday, the Friday/Saturday period looks to favor a coastal storm possibly moderate snowfall with an intense PVA shortwave involved, and then the 28-30th period thereafter next weekend there is another shortwave trough that could spark a coastal storm according to most model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We could still have a cold air mass overhead with a +AO regime, and with a +PNA regime present. Just 20-30" storms won't be 30-40" storms and 6-12" storms won't be 18-24" storms, I can deal with that, frequent miller B snowstorms bringing 6-12" JGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's still there as a suggestion... the 12z run is trying to realize it bit more. Definitely has a mid level "inflection of interest" (speaking of the operational run) centered more on the 29th, and also has the vagueness of development from the OV to NE regions on the 28th ...etc... The 00z GEFs members individually carry some semblance of a cyclogenesis/disturbance during that time frame as well.. The impetus behind bringing that up in the first place is that the PNA seemed to really flex between this first system early next week, and that particular period of time, so it seemed as good as any to pick for having any impulses nested in there to get more interesting in time. It's probably too early for that... but the canvas would still accept that paint, so to speak - Thanks Tip, I remember a few days ago or so you mentioned that time frame was something to keep an "eye" on...Philip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Significant energy produces a CNE snowfall right now, but in future runs could bring this system southward regarding the insanely amplified upper level ridge over the PNA region, allowing the energy to move south of SNE and bring snow to our region rather than northern New England. EURO is further south than the CMC and GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Glad you can deal with those run of the mill 20-30" and 6-12" storms, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Lol, I meant that 6-12" was more run of the mill for this pattern than 20-30", 20-30" is the upper echelon of the amounts, like the Blizzard of 2005, had a +NAO. It was quite progressive even though H5 closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I believe there was an NAO phase change going on at the time of the Jan 2005 storm. There was a frigid airmass in place and some nice blocking to slow it down at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I believe there was an NAO phase change going on at the time of the Jan 2005 storm. There was a frigid airmass in place and some nice blocking to slow it down at the time. Correct. PNA was rapidly cycling positive and NAO was cycling negative. I saw a wonderful presentation by Heather Archambault showing the statis. It's not the steady state but the cycle that is correlated with large QPF events. James-2005 ain't walking in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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