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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In what way? Seemed fine to me. There is no linear response to every mb increase in HP. It depends on the environment around it...cold does not mean stronger HP all the time, the placement of the high, and the behavior of the high as the storm progresses. 

Oh I was taking it to mean if the HP was stronger it would be more favorable and force it south 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

8 inches first 12 hr period and 4 the 2nd, congrats Dendrite with 2 eight balls

 

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

8 and 4". Mos spits out different snow catoegies  

thanks guys, i actually just found it on NOAA website right after you posted.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 8 category is technically 8"+...it could mean 8" or it could mean 13"...you don't really know. It's just the highest category they have.

yea my bad 24 hrs

MEX Snow Fall Amount Categories

0 no snow or a trace expected
1 > a trace to < 2 inches
2 2 to < 4 inches
4 4 to < 6 inches
6 6 to < 8 inches
8 >= 8 inches
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I like that the 500 mb is perhaps a couple dm deeper as it nears our latitude on this run.

that's been a concern as some of us have discussed, the earlier maturation rate on this whole thing.  Keeping some semblance of deepening "AS" it approaches is better for a myriad of reasons. 

The surface evolution actually runs along and ideal course for the huge possible snow (climo) - if that's ur bag ...

Unfortunately, it doesn't ..as much. The wah wah waaah of this run is that the smooth arcing curvilinear 0 C 850 mb isotherm is NW of 80 or 90% of the SNE sub-forum usership.  

Couple caveats:  

  -- clown maps useless... those things (as far as I've been made aware) are based on raw model output and don't say anything about trend or special studies... They are also based on fixed thermal fields/depths and don't take into consideration dynamically modulating(able) events.  Which this is a smoking gun for... 

  -- one other aspect that's creeping in is that this is become more progressive with each passing run... There are still models out there that linger this...but this run really shows how the "kicker" comes in from the west ... That whole aspect of this is equally in morphology.   Related too...it's still an overall very anomalous look.  The ridge in the west is almost non-existent on this run as that kicker (as said...) races toward the MV while this thing is still trying to max out and lift immediately astride the M/A and NE coasts.  That's not usually how these things operate.. 

I don't know...there's just enough unusual-ness about all this ,working in tandem with known error prone biases (particularly with modulating indexes...), for me to wonder if all this has been over analyzing material that doesn't have much hope of verifying to begin with. But on the flip side... every single ensemble member has this thing - so... 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I like that the 500 mb is perhaps a couple dm deeper as it nears our latitude on this run.

that's been a concern as some of us have discussed, the earlier maturation rate on this whole thing.  Keeping some semblance of deepening "AS" it approaches is better for a myriad of reasons. 

It actually runs along and ideal course for the most possible snow - if that's ur bag ...

Unfortunately, it doesn't wah wah wah of this run is that the smooth arcing curvilinear 0 C 850 mb isotherm is NW of 80 or 90% of the SNE sub-forum usership.  

Couple caveats:  

  -- clown maps useless... those things (as far as I've been made aware) are based on raw model output and don't say anything about trend and special studies... They are also based on fixed thermal fields/depths and don't take into consideration dynamically modulating(able) events.  Which this is a smoking gun for... 

  -- one other aspect that's creeping in is that this is become more progressive with each passing run... There are still models out there that linger this...but this run really shows how the "kicker" comes in from the west ... That whole aspect of this is equally in morphology.   Related too...it's still an overall very anomalous look.  The ridge in the west is almost non-existent on this run as that kicker (as said...) races toward the MV while this thing is still trying to max out and lift immediately astride the M/A and NE coasts.  That's not usually how these things operate.. 

I don't know...there's just enough unusual-ness about all this ,working in tandem with known error prone biases (particularly with modulating indexes...), for me to wonder if all this has been over analyzing material that doesn't have much hope of verifying to begin with. But on the flip side... every single ensemble member has this thing - so... 

I could see this becoming a quicker hitter if the whole thing is being forced east by both the westward placement of the block and the kicker upstream...we sort of swing the thing negative up the coast and then she's gone 18 hours later. There's probably like 10 moving parts the models have to figure out, and as we know, they probably don't have them figured out at this lead time.

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol of course not you spoiled batch. Odds of a 10 inch snowfall are pretty low . Lol Go big or go home, just read the thread your attitude was immensely different that day.

 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol of course not you spoiled batch. Odds of a 10 inch snowfall are pretty low . Lol Go big or go home, just read the thread your attitude was immensely different that day.

I laughed too. 

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