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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Turd in the punch bowl. :grinch:

Modeled QPF has a very occluded look to it early on, which does give me some pause for some stale forcing. But we can work with it.

Yeah, I'm with ya -  Forky and I were just commenting on that last hour.    

I really think the lack of baroclincity in the region as the 500MB reaches it's best amplitude isn't helping this things total structure - it has almost a look of a spring closure -

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Too bad that wasn't colder...nice enhancement over ern MA.

That's the firehose signal...always shows up like that with a max over E MA. I remember Mar '13 did too. Though this one is more turned in the atmosphere...more SE at 500 and more E at 850.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Certainly argues for something to keep an eye on from Ray-ORH-HFD area.

Even this run is pretty pretty cold a that sfc, keeps even down into N ORH county below freezing for the duration of the event. Some work to do, but wouldn't take too much more to make it interesting in the interior.

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Even this run is pretty pretty cold a that sfc, keeps even down into N ORH county below freezing for the duration of the event. Some work to do, but wouldn't take too much more to make it interesting in the interior.

I'd say it's already pretty interesting for the interior...we now just need a little work to make it a full blown snowstorm. Obviously a trend in either direction is pretty huge...it can go back to nothing notable pretty quickly or it could escalate into a pretty monstrous event.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Anyway nice to see it showing snow in the interior...don't want it to get too much colder for those of us in the interior otherwise it goes quickly to fringe job lol.

I bet the ensembles will look real nice given they had a nicer look at 00z than the OP.

 

One mans trash is another mans treasure so they say

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's the firehose signal...always shows up like that with a max over E MA. I remember Mar '13 did too. Though this one is more turned in the atmosphere...more SE at 500 and more E at 850.

Even the srfc wind backs NE-N. That's usually classic. Hopefully the models are underestimating the low levels. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Anyway nice to see it showing snow in the interior...don't want it to get too much colder for those of us in the interior otherwise it goes quickly to fringe job lol.

I bet the ensembles will look real nice given they had a nicer look at 00z than the OP.

 

There's plenty of room for you...it snows like a foot 200 miles north of you on the this run.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd say it's already pretty interesting for the interior...we now just need a little work to make it a full blown snowstorm. Obviously a trend in either direction is pretty huge...it can go back to nothing notable pretty quickly or it could escalate into a pretty monstrous event.

Yeah trends have been great so far, hopefully continue to cool the mid levels and we dont see a reversal

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's plenty of room for you...it snows like a foot 200 miles north of you on the this run.

I know I'm just kidding.

Everyone is like its close for the interior but I think its already there for the interior ;).

Finally we get one with a huge circulation somewhat close to the coast. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn't the high fairly weak though?

In what way? Seemed fine to me. There is no linear response to every mb increase in HP. It depends on the environment around it...cold does not mean stronger HP all the time, the placement of the high, and the behavior of the high as the storm progresses. 

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