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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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40 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Big Euro run incoming.

biggest of our lives

 

It is nice to see the GFS move to the Euro/CMC group early on as opposed to things being so uncertain 24 hours out.

 

I see the Gem seems a bit warmer than the 0z run was and bring rain for a bit up this way.  Weaker with the Friday system too.

 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be some light snizzle off and on Monday too.

Strong onshore flow...yeah. Could be an easterly terrain light snow enhancement in that set up...where you have the moisture but very little dynamics yet, so the terrain starts playing a bigger role.

 

Anyways, this could be pretty interesting if we continue to see that high setup with the ridiculous inflow at all levels.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Strong onshore flow...yeah. Could be an easterly terrain light snow enhancement in that set up...where you have the moisture but very little dynamics yet, so the terrain starts playing a bigger role.

 

Anyways, this could be pretty interesting if we continue to see that high setup with the ridiculous inflow at all levels.

Bit of a coastal front up here and temp grad along the sfc cold nose too so maybe some upglide there 

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine.

Yup ... you ignored my reply to you the other day, ... (J/K..) but yes, I was noting the same sort of phenomenon - I was citing and example of an April Nor-easter though; and how they tend to first pop up in extended/mid ranges as a fetid air mass ..but then the "real" cold isn't picked up until near terms. 

Not sure if it's the same exact phenomenon you describe but it sounds a lot like it.  Bottom line, I'm always suspicious of a 540 dm with a high up there.  The models are notorious too warm with the sounding at this range - probably the simplest way to put it. 

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46 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this had the potential to be a bruiser for the coast. now it's just a pretty ordinary nor'easter 

Solid observation of a subtle modeling trend ... 

I noticed that the low in general has a peaked structural look really early.  Like, the 500mb maxes out way SW and the whole trough is filling by the time it pass us..  That's true - 

All of these may be physically connected to the weakened baroclinicity over the east.  This system is has very little low level thickness gradients and as we know that will effect deepening rates for a myriad of feed-back causes.  

That can be overcome though ... the key difference between the "epicosity" of the earlier runs and these recent trends may come down to correctly sampling that straight zonal impactor that slams into the southern California coast in 36 hours... It may be wishy washy, but I wouldn't be shocked if that thing's strength is missing some as it slices/punches really ...east through the deep south.  It could mean a stronger resulting mid level closure like earlier runs and ... then it's a its a different ball game.   interesting.

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