Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm trying to find a good surface map of that one, but that is what I've read as well. 2008 developed into a fair coastal as well. All I was saying is that it's a rare evolution for an ice storm. Yup - very rare ... but of course, rare events is what makes this field tolerably entertaining, isn't it - heh. Try this site: https://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html ... You can load the dates of the event and obviously ...going further back in time the dubious quotient goes up ... but it's a real paradise diversion for geekin' out. I've spent hours gawking at the greats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's a risk I'm willing to take to experience even just 1" of ice 1998 here was 2"+ and millions of dollars damage plus packed hospital waiting rooms with wait times of 6-8 hrs plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The CIPS analogs do have a solid ice signal this far out: Also has December 1992 as a top 3 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The CIPS analogs do have a solid ice signal this far out: Also has December 1992 as a top 3 analog. I have to look back and see how we fared that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I have to look back and see how we fared that storm Ginx had just posted how similar the QPF output from some models looked to 1992, this is unlikely to be 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup - very rare ... but of course, rare events is what makes this field tolerably entertaining, isn't it - heh. Try this site: https://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html ... You can load the dates of the event and obviously ...going further back in time the dubious quotient goes up ... but it's a real paradise diversion for geekin' out. I've spent hour gawking at the greats! Yeah, you would think we would have the plug-in installed to view those, but alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's a risk I'm willing to take to experience even just 1" of ice Not that you asked... but, I've never seen.5" accretion in an icing event in my life. I've seen tornadoes. I've seen hail the size of Golf balls. I've witnessed a positive stroke discharge lightning bolt so powerful disintegrate and splintered half a 150 year old maple. I've never seen .5" ice. Not sure why. Lucky, I suppose. The one time I saw close to that number...we were without power for a day and half. This was back in the mid 1980s. It wasn't even a big deal in the forecasts, no widespread icing storm of nothing. But for about 4 days, the temperature hovered around 31.8 - I remember that because I was checking the temperature every 15 minutes ... for 4 straight days. I think it was over Christmas vacation from High School if memory fails me (as usual.), but it was like a winter weather advisory for snow that was supposed to end as drizzle and temps in the 40s. It ended as drizzle alright, ... at about 29 F. It never did more than light rain and constant mist, but the temperature crept from 29 to 30.. 31... 31.8 ... I think it was all just around metro west and Middlesex/N. ORH county...non major. But, that day and half we were without power was all the learning I needed. I'm just fine to read about ice storms rather than have them outside my home windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, you would think we would have the plug-in installed to view those, but alas. Do they allow you to download ? I think DejaVu is freeware ... I'll throw up the chart later this evening if it hasn't already before then - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Do they allow you to download ? I think DejaVu is freeware ... I'll throw up the chart later this evening if it hasn't already before then - Not plug-ins. But I do think this would be the way to do it with a coastal. Come from the south and have deep easterly flow over the top of the cold dome well ahead of the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 That's interesting that 1992 is coming in as #3 - huh. Someone asked a while ago (I think) and I thought at the time that it wasn't - but I haven't been paying attention to that specific relationship/comparison. I'm either wrong ...or, it's changed in the guidance since then. I haven't been paying attention to that comparison since. 1992 is probably my 2nd personal fondest storm. The Cleveland Super bomber of Jan 25-27, 1978, has no peers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 92 is still my favorite storm . Beats all the ones we've seen over recent years. I just have a huge love affair with that one. ORH had 36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's interesting that 1992 is coming in as #3 - huh. Someone asked a while ago (I think) and I thought at the time that it wasn't - but I haven't been paying attention to that specific relationship/comparison. I'm either wrong ...or, it's changed in the guidance since then. I haven't been paying attention to that comparison since. 1992 is probably my 2nd personal fondest storm. The Cleveland Super bomber of Jan 25-27, 1978, has no peers though. It's probably always going to pop in there with this kind of deep, easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Go time 1/29-2/2 and beyond. Agreed. That timeframe has been on my radar. Fresh cold should be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's probably always going to pop in there with this kind of deep, easterly flow. yeah,... and I'd like to add for general folks, (think Sandy if one needs another glaring example...) but that sort of easterly mid/U/A flow anomaly is quite consistent with the negative NAO phase state. Whether the charts at that time actually "look" -NAO like or not, that's true - The perfect "snow machine" would be to establish that into a 31/14F air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Any similarities to the Dec 73 icestorm? 3-5" of rain in SE Mass.. with 1" ice RI/CT/ Ma including burbs of BOS That was a coastal but not as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecor Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Good (but long) read for those of you that don't remember Dec '92. http://www.weatherknowledge.com/The_Great_NorEaster_of_Dec_1992.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any similarities to the Dec 73 icestorm? 3-5" of rain in SE Mass.. with 1" ice RI/CT/ Ma including burbs of BOS That was a coastal but not as strong The coastal not being as strong is key. Otherwise, the forcing mechanisms overcome the steady state needed for prolonged icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: 1998 here was 2"+ and millions of dollars damage plus packed hospital waiting rooms with wait times of 6-8 hrs plus. I had friends up in interior Maine who were without power for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hambone said: I had friends up in interior Maine who were without power for weeks. Yes, And some went a month if they were at the end of a line, When you need gas for a generator and the gas station is without power, You don't get any gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: The coastal not being as strong is key. Otherwise, the forcing mechanisms overcome the steady state needed for prolonged icing. there's probably some key ratio of hygroscopics... Like, so long as the flux of dry air can continually offset the latent heat of phase transition, as well as the other fluid mechanics effects of the circulation over all ... the ice machine is on. That was the main buggaboo about the 2008 ordeal. The DPs in Maine were like in the teens... and that air got sucked into a llv jet that pointed right at the N. Hills of Worcester. May as well have been a foam gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 i don't know if it means a whole heck of a lot ... but the 72 hour features of this 12z NAM run are showing somewhat less S/W splitting...with less lead dynamics closing off "as" soon in the TV. That trend is one that I believe could continue...I'm almost wondering if the overall tendency to do that in the guidance is correct-able. Not certain though... It's actually better if the trough does bifurcate into a lead with more dynamics stranded back SW like that... For one, it creates its own negative interference - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GFS looks like it will be a little more SE which may be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Looks like its going to have a colder press to the south, This should be better then the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 33 minutes ago, joecor said: Good (but long) read for those of you that don't remember Dec '92. http://www.weatherknowledge.com/The_Great_NorEaster_of_Dec_1992.pdf I've posted the link before but I have a video I shot driving from Stafford to the coast in that storm. The conditions were unreal - something you see probably once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Not tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Prime example for all you youngsters out there, stay positive and never throw in the towel on weather....on life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 That's the move you wanna see in the models if you want frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12z GFS, Block and HP doing its work, More front end snow this run further south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Snow to mix in a lot of SNE, but much more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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