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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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it is kind of depressing to have such a system during what should be the coldest time of year have these issues to begin with but maybe if there was ample cold air there would be no storm?  bummer anyways I think 1998 had a bunch of rainers with bm tracks or tracks which normally would favor a snowier outcome and also a bummer we really are loosing this whole month in areas inland

 

I know feb may be better but it is hard to not feel that this winter is on very shaky ground...even for nne and c/nne they need some more robust events before I would be declaring any kind of victories there

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25 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

it is kind of depressing to have such a system during what should be the coldest time of year have these issues to begin with but maybe if there was ample cold air there would be no storm?  bummer anyways I think 1998 had a bunch of rainers with bm tracks or tracks which normally would favor a snowier outcome and also a bummer we really are loosing this whole month in areas inland

 

I know feb may be better but it is hard to not feel that this winter is on very shaky ground...even for nne and c/nne they need some more robust events before I would be declaring any kind of victories there

Yea. the month has not turned out like many including myself thought. And, finally, folks in the west get a crawling hugger that would make amends for all the misses and busts but now theres not enough cool air in late Jan...ugh. it is what it is but I cant say Im not frustrated. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro took another small trend but we still need a bit more. 

Looking at the individual ensemble members there are a good chunk of them that are big interior snowstorms.  Surprised me to see how many crushed somewhere between say ORH and SYR...even a couple I-95 pasters.

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

6z GFS is a lot of ice up here early next week.  925mb temps surprisingly cold.

I think we'll get at least some mixed precipitation out of this, eventually going to rain.

6z GFS says you wouldn't have to worry about rain ruining skiing because there wouldn't be any power to run the lifts anyway. 

That looked like a lot of qpf as fzra. 

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the individual ensemble members there are a good chunk of them that are big interior snowstorms.  Surprised me to see how many crushed somewhere between say ORH and SYR...even a couple I-95 pasters.

Yeah it really wouldn't take much for that to happen now. We need to see the block holding stout a bit longer but obviously some of the ensemble members do that. The inhibiting factor is that we can't really afford a regression in the trend at this point and the airmass is so marginal anyway that we're most likely talking nuances in the flow determining where snow falls should we even trend that block a bit more. 

But hey, for such a terrible long wave pattern, at least we're watching guidance the past several days including yesterday's storm rather than drawing the shades. At least for the interior. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it really wouldn't take much for that to happen now. We need to see the block holding stout a bit longer but obviously some of the ensemble members do that. The inhibiting factor is that we can't really afford a regression in the trend at this point and the airmass is so marginal anyway that we're most likely talking nuances in the flow determining where snow falls should we even trend that block a bit more. 

But hey, for such a terrible long wave pattern, at least we're watching guidance the past several days including yesterday's storm rather than drawing the shades. At least for the interior. 

ENS sped up the progression leading to the block exerting more NNE ageo drain into the area. Big initial thump in ORH County Berks Greens then upstates.

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