ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, wx2fish said: Yeah looked quite a bit colder in NNE. Eventually floods the warmth north at 850 due to the track, but NNE would definitely get some snow on that run Yeah if the block just holds a little better, then it would push that whole ULL more to our south and east rather than letting it ride up into central NY. But that was a pretty big change on 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event. Not to get hopes prematurely high ... but, you know what this remains me of (speaking to just this 12z suite)? It reminds me of that last gasp of hope in early April, where the models spin up a coastal but the medium is like +1 or +2 ...but as it gets closer, it shaves decimals per run in a painfully slow erosion of warm until you end up with the blue isothermal spring job. I mean, I could see that doing something similar here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Are we primarily relying on downstream pseudo-blocking or can we get some assistance upstream with ridging pushing the trough axis further E? The main feature is definitely the Hudson Bay block, but yeah, if you get something to kick the system a little then it could make a difference...esp if we are starting from a point where it is a fairly close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 nice positive changes, all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The main feature is definitely the Hudson Bay block, but yeah, if you get something to kick the system a little then it could make a difference...esp if we are starting from a point where it is a fairly close call. Just looking at 5h w/ SLP it looks like it's a mess out West. To my eye it has a spring cutoff appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 MEX has an 8 and a 4 up here...lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just looking at 5h w/ SLP it looks like it's a mess out West. To my eye it has a spring cutoff appearance. How soon until someone says "it is making its own cold!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, klw said: it is making its own cold! Not this crap again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, klw said: How soon until someone says "it is making its own cold!" probably the next time James logs in. blizzard for CAPE COD, MA, USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Not this crap again hee hee With April storms it's either that or "Sun Angle" or "Warm Ground". You choose the poison. The Euro definitely is getting me interested. Something to follow and if nothing else is giving me hope that the torch looks like it is going the way of this week's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Most major models took a step in the right direction let's see what the trend is tonight. At least we have something to track for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The Euro at 240 is always such a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Wow, this could be a "continental mauler" ...I've heard that said somewhere before ... but the gist is that it's multi-regionally impacting. Just went over the GEFs and every single member has California getting walloped as that mid range concern for next week first comes off the Pacific ocean along the west coast. Then, SW (Flagstaffer) snows and sever in SE TX through the Gulf interface latitudes... Then duh dun dunnn (maybe) The isotachs out west suggest 100 kts sustain mid level flow buffets the elevations and who knows how much water that transports... The wave dynamcs are arriving on a flat trajectory.. And, as it comes in and is ejected along the southern route/stream across the U.S. the ridge on the backside uncertainties (I believe) will be important in how much of this thing is conserved as it nears 80 W and (possibly) then up the coast. While all that is happening ... the block associated with the NAO (as others have noted) is being placed in a better position on this modeling cycle... I almost think of this part of the discussion as really just returning to the look (at least part way) it had prior to the last 24 to 48 hours that seemed to fiddle unsavoringly with the NAO flow... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Most major models took a step in the right direction let's see what the trend is tonight. At least we have something to track for a few days. Yes, This. Something a lil more positive at the moment..let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 That's close next week to something special as others have mentioned, "If" we can keep that block in place................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It's not that close down here... maybe for southern NH on north it's close. it will take a miracle down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 If you look at the Euro for the D4 depiction (500 mb) it really isn't that different than the GGEM with one important difference: the GGEM uses that sheared piece of S/W that Euro has out ahead of the main wave axis ... to help pull down some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Storms this big can make their own cold, pull it down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It's not that close down here... maybe for southern NH on north it's close. it will take a miracle down this way Time is still on our side, but if it doesn't improve within the next 24-36 hours or so..then yeah we are pretty much toast. We still need additional shifts in several large scale features (such as trough axis further east and stronger more sustainable block) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Storms this big can make their own cold, pull it down from Canada. And there it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And there it is... I took it as a joke, but maybe you're right with the :facepalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I love those storms that pass through and make their own cold air like the good humor man truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I add cold to my soup when it is too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Ah..heh, have to admit, I'm a not really privy to that particular forum meme: what is that about - the make own cold air thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah..heh, have to admit, I'm a not really privy to that particular forum meme: what is that about - the make own cold air thing? Combo of adiabatic cooling and self-development. Old weenie expression from back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Combo of adiabatic cooling and self-development. Old weenie expression from back in the day. heh, missed that one. In any event, systems that are marginal can flip over to snow if cyclgenesis is intense and height falls and yadda yadda yadda, but nothing actually "makes cold" - I guess that's the rub. Btw, you may actually score three times up there over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro actually shows -850 east inflow into the Berks and Greens prior to the cut throwing some decent amount of snow into those areas. Trend graphics are pretty interesting at 12Z, would be nice to see that keep up tomorrow. Getting close to running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh, missed that one. In any event, systems that are marginal can flip over to snow if cyclgenesis is intense and height falls and yadda yadda yadda, but nothing actually "makes cold" - I guess that's the rub. Btw, you may actually score three times up there over the next 10 days. He is lucky there. We need a major snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 14 Euro Ens have a big snow storm in Interior New england, this morning from 0 Z there were 2, mean is also bullish. Interesting trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 See, even Tip said storms can make their own cold. First law of thermodynamics does not apply to bombogensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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