Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:33 PM, Hoth said: Dude, I was just making a tongue in cheek comment after all the piling on about your writing yesterday. I was in no way intending to be critical. For the record, I always enjoy reading your input, even though my insufficient grounding in the science often precludes full comprehension. Anyway, enough of this mayhem. Back to weather. Expand Well there you go then - I'm being paranoid. forget it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:38 PM, CoastalWx said: It's pretty cold at 850 considering the thicknesses. A nice high thickness snow. Expand 700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding. I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: 700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding. I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm. Expand March 2010 Will-unhinged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take it.....at least it breaks the monotony of a bad pattern- Expand I think it could be more than that - by the time this thing happens (whatever it happens) we should be in a different "bad pattern" hahaha Not to be a douche but, ...I did spend to the time to point out that an A. signal was afoot, and explained why. I suppose what mean is, we break a bad pattern with an A. we'll see though - frankly, I battling a bit of Stockholm Syndrome, where I almost can't imagine things actually working out another way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 High thickness snow - yup. I've actually seen it snow as high as 552 dm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 12:34 PM, Zeus said: That is what dribbles out when a writer becomes aroused. Now come, and let us discussion the mayhem of the models as men, as we once did. Expand kumbaya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 2010 Will-unhinged? Expand I'm already expecting it at this point, so I'll avoid the meltdown. But yeah, this could be a nice 2"+ QPF rainer on a benchmark track. We'll hope the blocking trend keeps going to make this interesting from a winter wx standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I think it could be more than that - by the time this thing happens (whatever it happens) we should be in a different "bad pattern" hahaha Not to be a douche but, ...I did spend to the time to point out that an A. signal was afoot, and explained why. I suppose what mean is, we break a bad pattern with an A. we'll see though - frankly, I battling a bit of Stockholm Syndrome, where I almost can't imagine things actually working out another way. Expand Yea, sorry John....def. wasn't trying to impugn your work. All I meant was we're going to need some help....I worded that too strongly, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 That Canadian track would generally have one salivating at this time of year. My kingdom for some decent cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Local mets hyping the warmup and 1"+ RN next week. this month went to hell in a hand basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 trying to keep up here, are you guys talking about early next week, or towards the end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: 700mb temps are like -2C...lol. There's your high thickness snow event. Prob like a Dec '92 sounding. I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm. Expand Yup Dec 92.. Ginx said rain to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 5:32 PM, OSUmetstud said: Rock and roll. Expand Certainly know how to do storms up there. I need to take a trip up there, my grandfather came down from NF and has plenty of stories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 5:40 PM, wx2fish said: Certainly know how to do storms up there. I need to take a trip up there, my grandfather came down from NF and has plenty of stories Expand Has potential to be the biggest storm since i moved here in nov. 2015. Yeah it might the most blizzard prone city in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the start of a trend. But dam, what a moisture bomb. Expand Would at least do some work on the drought (because we're still in a drought, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:38 PM, CoastalWx said: It's pretty cold at 850 considering the thicknesses. A nice high thickness snow. Expand Nice high to the north. This one is probably not even worth chatting about south of the Pike given the raging SE/E flow but yeah I'd be interested farther north. South Coast could get some nice wind and some really heavy rain in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 GFS is 50 knot gusts for the coast - even pretty windy inland though I imagine the windy look on the soundings for BDL and HFD will be muted by some CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 5:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yup Dec 92.. Ginx said rain to Maine Expand It still might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 the canadian has a lead wave which helps pull down some cold before the main storm but that idea took a step back on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: It still might be. Expand I think it will be. Euro will soon verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I think it will be. Euro will soon verify Expand So you are saying rain to Maine too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 4:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm hoping that block keeps trending, but without the Euro on board, I'll remain skeptical. But the GFS just took a big jump, so we'll see what the Euro does. Otherwise we're talking about a nice 36F rainstorm. Expand The euro had this look and then lost it --as did the GFS; albeit to a lesser extent. Now the 12z GFS shows it's trending back to the colder solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The lead sw in the midwest is pulling down colder air with than previous runs. Not saying one way or another for better end result, since Will says the block in hudson bay is key...but its a step in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: So you are saying rain to Maine too... Expand As you are Harvey seems to think colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:13 PM, jbenedet said: The euro had this look and then lost it --as did the GFS; albeit to a lesser extent. Now the 12z GFS shows it's trending back to the colder solution... Expand Euro is bringing it back this run...but it probably still needs to be a little stronger with the block to produce the snowier result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 5:56 PM, CT Rain said: GFS is 50 knot gusts for the coast - even pretty windy inland though I imagine the windy look on the soundings for BDL and HFD will be muted by some CAD. Expand excellent point, Ryan! i was thinking looking at this operational run ...gee, snow or not, what are the Tides for that period... That has a deep long east fetch of large knots through multiple tide cycles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event. Expand Yeah looked quite a bit colder in NNE. Eventually floods the warmth north at 850 due to the track, but NNE would definitely get some snow on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/18/2017 at 6:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah close call this run on the Euro....wouldn't take much more to turn that into a huge paste bomb for many. It already has some snow in NNE...just hold that block a smidge longer and it's a big time event. Expand Are we primarily relying on downstream pseudo-blocking or can we get some assistance upstream with ridging pushing the trough axis further E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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