moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 They should really change that graphic so it doesn't read "storm watch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Burbank is going euro and rpm. Both make sense to me as well. I wouldn't put at 8" possibilities south of central NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn't put at 8" possibilities south of central NH Enjoy your snow day off Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: They should really change that graphic so it doesn't read "storm watch". Ha. I think ur confusing/conflating venues there. ... 99% of the public reads that as "monitoring a possible storm," which is entirely valid for public consumption. We could get into the semantics of what qualifies as a 'storm' versus 'just a snow fall' but less meaningfully different to public consumption too. Have to remember: this forum and its users is a teeny tiny special interest group that occasionally aligns it's understanding next to AMS glossary definitions - a latter source that over 99% of the public doesn't even know exists... Least that's how "I" interpret storm watch headers on weather personality animations - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a tough call north of pike. Could easily be several inches of snow, but when you need to wetbulb the 925-850 layer in order to get snow...it makes for a tough forecast. I didn't think the EURO was too much warmer...more less dynamic....but the two do go hand-in-hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 NAM cooled off a tad, but still rather mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 This is a nice light event relative to climo... perhaps a whistle whet prior to what could be a bigger multi- U.S. region impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha. I think ur confusing/conflating venues there. ... 99% of the public reads that as "monitoring a possible storm," which is entirely valid for public consumption. We could get into the semantics of what qualifies as a 'storm' versus 'just a snow fall' but less meaningfully different to public consumption too. Have to remember: this forum and its users is a teeny tiny special interest group that occasionally aligns it's understanding next to AMS glossary definitions - a latter source that over 99% of the public doesn't even know exists... Least that's how "I" interpret storm watch headers on weather personality animations - Since they also post graphics that identify official watches, warnings, and advisories, when they're up, it's a problem. It doesn't help their cause since it's likely going to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn't put at 8" possibilities south of central NH I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Burbank is going euro and rpm. Both make sense to me as well. That is what I favor..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not really, I like it. Yea, I'm not sure why so many are bucking the EURO inside of day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not sure why so many are bucking the EURO inside of day 3. It's just a close call. I can see being careful because you are also depending on dynamics to help cool the column and get snow. If the 12z stuff cools and 12z euro op holds....then I think nrn MA will get decent snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's just a close call. I can see being careful because you are also depending on dynamics to help cool the column and get snow. If the 12z stuff cools and 12z euro op holds....then I think nrn MA will get decent snow from this. Yea....the EURO can develop systems too quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Burbanks map is not terrible but I would probably go like C-1, 1-3, 3-6 because of sensitive thermal profiles and add that screw you Connecticut River Valley zone in NCT right up to just north of Springfield that only gets C-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just now, White Rain said: Strange BOX is really just pushing the the ice component of this storm. They don't even mention the possibility of this busting on the snowier side - despite model support. You would think they would at least address the possibility. Some snow is possible at the very beginning but feel it will be brief for two reasons: 1) the warm intrusion around H8 is already pushing N/E across the region into NH at onset of precipitation, and 2) drier air within the mid levels is not far behind, eroding moisture within the dendritic growth zone around roughly midnight. Mainly rain for the coastal regions. I'm hedging toward climo with this.....my locale normally errs cold in the mid levels...but if its a low level issue, then I'm usually cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not sure why so many are bucking the EURO inside of day 3. How does it look at mid levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How does it look at mid levels? Fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'm thinking 1" of sleet here then maybe ends as .10 -.20 of Zr , but no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fine for us. Good am Ray, at 6am my local tv met, said mix to rain for me, any chance this event can produce more cold? or warm will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'll gladly take 2-4". Anything to freshen the bare spots and dirty snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I'll gladly take 2-4". Anything to freshen the bare spots and dirty snow. I think you will do better then that, At least 4" anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 Def 2 camps as far as media. Most seem to favor icy/rainy mix BOX included A few going snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Def 2 camps as far as media. Most seem to favor icy/rainy mix BOX included A few going snowy. RGEM says snowy for Rt 2 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Def 2 camps as far as media. Most seem to favor icy/rainy mix BOX included A few going snowy. Always hedge colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'm still expecting a trend towards earlier development of the second wave. The best UL dynamics are associated with the second wave, but the current model consensus seems to say otherwise... The 12z nam took a step in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Dave was flying under the eeyore radar for years. Now it's out in the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dave was flying under the eeyore radar for years. Now it's out in the open. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Congrats, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dave was flying under the eeyore radar for years. Now it's out in the open. If I had to shovel all of the snow that you guys said I was going to get but didn't happen... I think I have been pretty reasonable with my calls lately. For that last decent storm I busted lower than my panic call...I was lured by the NAMs siren song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 RGEM is real nice for ORH and north. Close for Ray. Will have to watch east winds, but if winds stay backed..it's a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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