ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's so lift dependent. You can see on the ptype maps. Yeah GFS has putrid lift for most of the event in MA which is why the NH border/S VT area is where all the snow is on that run...shift it 25 miles south like on other guidance and it snows pretty good down to ORH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's so lift dependent. You can see on the ptype maps. If the HHRR is correct going to be some surprised road crews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah GFS has putrid lift for most of the event in MA which is why the NH border/S VT area is where all the snow is on that run...shift it 25 miles south like on other guidance and it snows pretty good down to ORH area. HRRR has a 6 pack right over Eyeore Jr's head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It's actually parachutes here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I may lose the rest of my hair tonight You will be able to see the snow covered hills of Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's actually parachutes here too. Get 1" into Jerry's hood it looks like...this is the type of event where if it can be sustained 30dbz for 3 hours, then someone even pretty close to BOS could get monster parachutes and pick up a quick 2 inches and then go back to drizzle/RA- when it lightens up. Should be interesting to see if that can happen....the guidance definitely isn't in very good agreement about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Get 1" into Jerry's hood it looks like...this is the type of event where if it can be sustained 30dbz for 3 hours, then someone even pretty close to BOS could get monster parachutes and pick up a quick 2 inches and then go back to drizzle/RA- when it lightens up. Should be interesting to see if that can happen....the guidance definitely isn't in very good agreement about it. I'd feel better if I knew it was a deep layered omega bomb, but it looks like a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Get 1" into Jerry's hood it looks like...this is the type of event where if it can be sustained 30dbz for 3 hours, then someone even pretty close to BOS could get monster parachutes and pick up a quick 2 inches and then go back to drizzle/RA- when it lightens up. Should be interesting to see if that can happen....the guidance definitely isn't in very good agreement about it. seems to be an East wind upslope in the ORH and Berks hills, seen those surprise before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 RAP looks very similar, should be a fun night for the elevation peeps and NE Mass S NH VT Spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: seems to be an East wind upslope in the ORH and Berks hills, seen those surprise before That could happen tomorrow actually...the column actually starts to resaturate a bit up to around H7 or just a hair below while the mid-levels cool off decently. So it wouldn't shock me if we had an east slope event for a time tomorrow while elsewhere its not doing as much or slightly too warm. The type of thing where weenie ridge could get 1-2" of paste during the day when the forecast was for just a few flakes and a high of 37....we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 That holds true south of ORH too for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RAP looks very similar, should be a fun night for the elevation peeps and NE Mass S NH VT Spine Latest HRRR snow map. Getting better in ORH County and RT 2 corridor in general. Its interestingly lowest in the places that are under Winter Storm Warnings right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That could happen tomorrow actually...the column actually starts to resaturate a bit up to around H7 or just a hair below while the mid-levels cool off decently. So it wouldn't shock me if we had an east slope event for a time tomorrow while elsewhere its not doing as much or slightly too warm. The type of thing where weenie ridge could get 1-2" of paste during the day when the forecast was for just a few flakes and a high of 37....we'll have to watch it. WAWA day Hunchie, school will be cancelled, flakes flying new snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That holds true south of ORH too for tomorrow Not as much...easterly flow isn't as good south of ORH. Doesn't mean there would be zippo, but you want a place that has good upslope from east to west and the N ORH county ridge is exceptional for that (as far as hill terrain goes...obviously nothing like mountains up north). NW RI actually is probably the best spot S of ORH on that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not as much...easterly flow isn't as good south of ORH. Doesn't mean there would be zippo, but you want a place that has good upslope from east to west and the N ORH county ridge is exceptional for that (as far as hill terrain goes...obviously nothing like mountains up north). He tries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not as much...easterly flow isn't as good south of ORH. Doesn't mean there would be zippo, but you want a place that has good upslope from east to west and the N ORH county ridge is exceptional for that (as far as hill terrain goes...obviously nothing like mountains up north). NW RI actually is probably the best spot S of ORH on that type of setup. lol dreams crushed. Whenever easterly flow upslope in ORH Hills is mentioned there's usually an attempt to group in areas south of that, that tends to get stomped out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR has a 6 pack right over Eyeore Jr's head 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: WAWA day Hunchie, school will be cancelled, flakes flying new snow Meh. They might cancel out this way but I work east and lower... its funny, because the previous HRRR I was looking at looked pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Meh. They might cancel out this way but I work east and lower... its funny, because the previous HRRR I was looking at looked pretty lame I'm looking at it as anything 2"+ is a win in a time frame that could've easily been 45F and an inch of rain. Wintery appeal Hunchie. Don't go looking for 12" of cake. Just take a nice winter wonderland look and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I'm looking at it as anything 2"+ is a win in a time frame that could've easily been 45F and an inch of rain. Wintery appeal Hunchie. Don't go looking for 12" of cake. Just take a nice winter wonderland look and run with it. Indeed. 2" is nice. But I don't have visions of 6-8" dancing in my head anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'm looking at it as anything 2"+ is a win in a time frame that could've easily been 45F and an inch of rain. Wintery appeal Hunchie. Don't go looking for 12" of cake. Just take a nice winter wonderland look and run with it. he can't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol dreams crushed. Whenever easterly flow upslope in ORH Hills is mentioned there's usually an attempt to group in areas south of that, that tends to get stomped out pretty quickly. The only one that ever does that is you and sometimes Scooter. The March firehose storm says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Indeed. 2" is nice. But I don't have visions of 6-8" dancing in my head anymore If I put a gun to my head I think you'll find 4.5" of paste tomorrow and wake up with snow stuck to every little twig. And you'll be like wow, this looks pretty awesome out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The only one that ever does that is you and sometimes Scooter. The March firehose storm says otherwise Me? I didn't say anything one way or another regarding SNE climo orographic patterns. Seemed like you missed Will's post. Maybe he can clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The only one that ever does that is you and sometimes Scooter. The March firehose storm says otherwise March firehose storm was more of a standing wave down there rather than upslope...otherwise NW RI would have been in the meat of it too and they were relatively screwed (though not nearly as bad as just SE of them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If I put a gun to my head I think you'll find 4.5" of paste tomorrow and wake up with snow stuck to every little twig. And you'll be like wow, this looks pretty awesome out. That's reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Me? I didn't say anything. Seemed like you missed Will's post. Maybe he can clarify. It's not even a big deal anyway...there might be nothing tomorrow too...some guidance had the signal though. It's not like there's this great setup for 4" of mesoscale snow tomorrow alone on the east slope of N ORH county...it was more like "maybe there could be some surprisingly consistent light snow". But no way it's a lock. We'll get through tonight first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That's reasonable I was thinking 0.5-0.6" QPF for you at say 9:1 ratios is what I'd roll with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: March firehose storm was more of a standing wave down there rather than upslope...otherwise NW RI would have been in the meat of it too and they were relatively screwed (though not nearly as bad as just SE of them) It's also warmer down there tomorrow. Maybe he can get drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I was thinking 0.5-0.6" QPF for you at say 9:1 ratios is what I'd roll with. Yeah he could get a nice 4-6" paster. What the hell is wrong with that? jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Dang it's pouring out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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