wx2fish Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I see that GYX lowered our area from the 4-6" they had this morning to 3-4". I think thats a pretty good call there given some of the red flags. If the airmass was just a hair better 4-6" would be a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Interesting that my dew has dropped down to 20 this afternoon. Plenty of room to wetbulb. I'm wondering in back of mind if Euro/Nam are right When all ya got is dew and wet bulb talk...well, then that's all ya got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, Cold Miser said: When all ya got is dew and wet bulb talk...well, then that's all ya got. I mean for ice. Low dew will allow my temp to drop to or below 32. No snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Getting some pellets here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I'll be heading out shortly--hopefully no slick spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: When all ya got is dew and wet bulb talk...well, then that's all ya got. Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather ya got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Well, the new BOX snowfall map is far from awe-inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 18Z Nam is still pretty toasty at the sfc and at 800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Well, this is far from awe-inspiring. dec 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: dec 2016? You're quick--an old one was posting so I took it down. Mostly 2-3" along route 2, spot 4" in ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 If we didn't have to depend on wetbulbkng for snow in the borderline zones, this would be a lock. It's never good to depend on wet bulbing your way to snow in marginal areas. IOW, -4 at 850 to start is much more dependable then needing wetbulbing to bring you to -4C at 850 for snow when your temps are near 40 at the surface. It's a tough call near the 495 area. If they had 4-5" of paste or white rain...I would not be surprised either way. If nrn MA can grab onto sustained lift where radar is those nice deep greens of 30Dbz or better...you have shot at pulling off some paste. I know will said it earlier, but you do not want that fractured banded look to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Another update...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 This one seems to be becoming less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 18z RGEM. Nice tickle upward along the Spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This one seems to be becoming less impressive It has always been tenuous, the nowcast will be interesting if it cranks a little earlier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If we didn't have to depend on wetbulbkng for snow in the borderline zones, this would be a lock. It's never good to depend on wet bulbing your way to snow in marginal areas. IOW, -4 at 850 to start is much more dependable then needing wetbulbing to bring you to -4C at 850 for snow when your temps are near 40 at the surface. It's a tough call near the 495 area. If they had 4-5" of paste or white rain...I would not be surprised either way. If nrn MA can grab onto sustained lift where radar is those nice deep greens of 30Dbz or better...you have shot at pulling off some paste. I know will said it earlier, but you do not want that fractured banded look to radar. Definitely a tough call in that area. Hrrr has been actually cooling a bit along that corridor over the past couple runs. It keeps regenerating lift keeping things snow a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Definitely a tough call in that area. Hrrr has been actually cooling a bit along that corridor over the past couple runs. It keeps regenerating lift keeping things snow a bit longer The wildcard to me is what happens between about 06z and 15z tomorrow...there's signs on some guidance that we get decent lift regenerating as the low intensifies to our south and the lower mid-levels start to respond...other guidance has it more fractured and showery...like the NAM especially. If that happens, then probably no more than about 1-3" of paste...maybe 3-4 up near Wachusett or something....but if we get some decent lift regenerating like on some guidance, then I could see several additional inches of accumulation...and it would probably help out that area in NE MA lower down in elevation too and up into SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Wilmington....just far enough from the ocean whiff on oes, but just close enough to get hosed in marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The wildcard to me is what happens between about 06z and 15z tomorrow...there's signs on some guidance that we get decent lift regenerating as the low intensifies to our south and the lower mid-levels start to respond...other guidance has it more fractured and showery...like the NAM especially. If that happens, then probably no more than about 1-3" of paste...maybe 3-4 up near Wachusett or something....but if we get some decent lift regenerating like on some guidance, then I could see several additional inches of accumulation...and it would probably help out that area in NE MA lower down in elevation too and up into SE NH. GFS has a weird subby zone near the DGZ later on as winds back and then veer with height again. But even so, I wonder if the column below 800 is enough to generate light lift with snow (albeit crappy flakes) with esrly upslope through 850mb. There is that warm tongue near 850, but seems to cool ever so slightly. This probably would be better in WaWa land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The wildcard to me is what happens between about 06z and 15z tomorrow...there's signs on some guidance that we get decent lift regenerating as the low intensifies to our south and the lower mid-levels start to respond...other guidance has it more fractured and showery...like the NAM especially. If that happens, then probably no more than about 1-3" of paste...maybe 3-4 up near Wachusett or something....but if we get some decent lift regenerating like on some guidance, then I could see several additional inches of accumulation...and it would probably help out that area in NE MA lower down in elevation too and up into SE NH. Yep agree - been a couple this year with a similarly tough call along the same corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 HRRR is a ping fest here overnight RGEM a bit colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z RGEM. Nice tickle upward along the Spine. Yeah, It has ticked upward over the last 24 hrs or so........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR is a ping fest here overnight RGEM a bit colder too 21z has me sleeting too, and Ray thumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Yeah it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it does. 2nd round of good lift coming through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 HRRR has definitely cooled almost every run for the past 5-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 18z GFS stays the course. Wouldn't complain if it was right with 4-6" around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It's so lift dependent. You can see on the ptype maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: HRRR has definitely cooled almost every run for the past 5-6 hours. kevin better get the hard hat out, serious scalping, that would leave a mark, probably have an inch of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 21z has me sleeting too, and Ray thumping I may lose the rest of my hair tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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