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1/14 Weak 'High Overrunning' Discussion/Observations


Zelocita Weather

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this year has been a bust if you predicted a negative ao winter...It can change later on this month and go negative...Models keep backing off the long range neg ao every time it's forecast...I'm not sure what is the lowest daily ao number this winter...These are the winters with the least negative daily ao number for a winter...1988-89 had the least amount of negative ao days for a winter also...

winter.....lowest daily ao...date...

1988-89.......-0.318.....3/2

2014-15.......-1.462.....3/19

1974-75.......-1.695.....12/18

1972-73.......-2.044.....12/17

1999-00.......-2.118.....2/18

2006-07.......-2.184.....2/4

1992-93.......-2.228.....3/2

1987-88.......-2.314.....2/28

2007-08.......-2.468.....1/2

1991-92.......-2.597.....12/4

 

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

this year has been a bust if you predicted a negative ao winter...It can change later on this month and go negative...Models keep backing off the long range neg ao every time it's forecast...I'm not sure what is the lowest daily ao number this winter...These are the winters with the least negative daily ao number for a winter...1988-89 had the least amount of negative ao days for a winter also...

winter.....lowest daily ao...date...

1988-89.......-0.318.....3/2

2014-15.......-1.462.....3/19

1974-75.......-1.695.....12/18

1972-73.......-2.044.....12/17

1999-00.......-2.118.....2/18

2006-07.......-2.184.....2/4

1992-93.......-2.228.....3/2

1987-88.......-2.314.....2/28

2007-08.......-2.468.....1/2

1991-92.......-2.597.....12/4

 

Cohen's theory is pretty much getting beaten by something else every year.  2014-15 it was supposedly some odd meso high, last year it was the El Niño, this year it's the QBO

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18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Cohen's theory is pretty much getting beaten by something else every year.  2014-15 it was supposedly some odd meso high, last year it was the El Niño, this year it's the QBO

seems to be too many factors to predict it properly- it was an admirable effort though.  Over half an inch and still snowing

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Special Statement
Special Statement in effect until 7:00 PM EST on January 14, 2017
Issued: 5:50 PM EST on January 14, 2017

Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch and between 1 and 2 inches in some spots. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 550 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch and between 1 and 2 inches in some spots. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 550 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch and between 1 and 2 inches in some spots. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 518 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch locally. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 518 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch locally. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 518 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Snow will continue to fall across the region into early this evening. This will be light to moderate at times with snow accumulations of up to 1 inch locally. Temperatures are cold enough for this snow to stick to surfaces, so this will make for some slippery conditions. Motorists should drive extra carefully and slowly during these conditions. 343 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 An area of light snow will produce a coating to a half inch in spots. The light snow will likely taper off toward evening. Pw 343 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 An area of light snow will produce a coating to a half inch in spots. The light snow will likely taper off toward evening. Pw 343 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 An area of light snow will produce a coating to a half inch in spots. The light snow will likely taper off toward evening. Pw
 

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