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1/14 Weak 'High Overrunning' Discussion/Observations


Zelocita Weather

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1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

23uv7rc.jpg

 

huh? GFS is .02 LE.......... that's a dusting on cold surfaces tops

 

if anything hi- res nams most bullish with about .2 LE, decent 1-2" 

Don't get mad cause you not going to see any flakes

jk Man how's that leg?

 

edit: ukmet looks good for an inch for our area. I'll take it! 

 

 

IMG_1392.GIF

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3 minutes ago, seanick said:

But you said it's dead...and a few days ago your call was even bigger. 

I was dead wrong but I'm happy we're getting at least something. I thought we were getting a swfl that would have a low reinforced off the coast of North Carolina but instead it's cutting. Didn't think the high pressure would break apart and move into Bermuda. 

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24 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I was dead wrong but I'm happy we're getting at least something. I thought we were getting a swfl (swfe*) that would have a low reinforced off the coast of North Carolina but instead it's cutting. Didn't think the high pressure would break apart and move into Bermuda. 

It hasn't happened yet lol, and trust me I've seen over 3 feet of snow hit the ground this season (granted 1 was a road trip) I'm not upset missing out on mood flakes lol

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Where is everyone seeing 1-2"? Are you expecting 20:1 ratios? Lol... even the hi-res Nam is .05-.1" LE, are we really rounding up and wishcasting a snow shower event.... we're talking about a well timed swath of snow. No larger than Long Island Itself, not to mention you realize your gonna need to saturate before you see anything out of this blob moving west right? It's extremely dry 

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Don't misinterpret my posts as negative, I'm only saying the models themselves are not favorable for more than 1"... we've seen these things overperform time and time again, wherever you have a boundary set up, you have the possibility of some good snow to break out, my call is just that I don't think anyone north of central jersey hits 2" my call is dusting to 1" for NYC area, but it's NOT impossible for a decent band to push past and drop some good rates, or coastal enhancement... that's all... I'm not jealous, mad, upset, or any of that lol... if that strip was setting up 60 miles north I'd be expressing The same concerns up here for my area

 

 

 

*also I would like to note I think the best local shot at seeing more that 1" is long islands south shore 

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51 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Don't misinterpret my posts as negative, I'm only saying the models themselves are not favorable for more than 1"... we've seen these things overperform time and time again, wherever you have a boundary set up, you have the possibility of some good snow to break out, my call is just that I don't think anyone north of central jersey hits 2" my call is dusting to 1" for NYC area, but it's NOT impossible for a decent band to push past and drop some good rates, or coastal enhancement... that's all... I'm not jealous, mad, upset, or any of that lol... if that strip was setting up 60 miles north I'd be expressing The same concerns up here for my area

 

 

 

*also I would like to note I think the best local shot at seeing more that 1" is long islands south shore 

Notice just exactly who is calling for more then a dusting. I'm usually pretty positive, not this time.

This is a virga fest. Even if the column manages to saturate enough to allow a few mangled flakes to reach the ground we will never come close to achieving rates heavy enough to accumulate. There's a reason flurries do not accumulate.

if anyone within 20 miles of NYC receives more then an inch I'll be amazed 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Allentown had snow reach the ground surprisingly fast 

just look at those echoes pushing this way. no one has mentioned how much forcing is actually going on here,literally squeezing all that precip out into cold air. the radar looks great for our area currently.B)

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

really surprised to see these weenie 1-2 inch amounts being projected for this on the board when every forecaster and their mother is saying coating to an inch if that. Im at 33 already and the ground is warm from the past two days and this snow will be light, good luck with accumulations

Amen. Was walking around in a T-Shirt at night 2 days ago. This will be a wet ground "event". Congrats to car tops and grass, maybe.

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