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1/14 Weak 'High Overrunning' Discussion/Observations


Zelocita Weather

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. FYI, Atlanta had a record high 77-degree reading yesterday.

Maybe the very warm SST's off the East Coast come into play with other teleconnections to help nudge the storm track north and west.

Almost the opposite of a winter like 79-80 where storm after storm missed to our south despite big snowfall forecasts that never verified.

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the very warm SST's off the East Coast come into play with other teleconnections to help nudge the storm track north and west.

Almost the opposite of a winter like 79-80 where storm after storm missed to our south despite big snowfall forecasts that never verified.

I don't think it's just this year, I believe this is the main reason for the increase in snowfall and big storms since 2002.

PS one predictor I've been using for the further northwest track is where the mix line sets up.  With our (so far) biggest storm this winter, Norfolk was seeing sleet with a Blizzard Warning and with our last event mixing got to Philly and Central NJ.  Neither of those were expected.

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On 1/15/2017 at 8:13 AM, bluewave said:

Maybe the very warm SST's off the East Coast come into play with other teleconnections to help nudge the storm track north and west.

Almost the opposite of a winter like 79-80 where storm after storm missed to our south despite big snowfall forecasts that never verified.

I agree. I suspect the warm waters are playing a role down in the Southeast. Atlanta is currently tied with its longest stretch of 70° or above readings in January. Today has a shot at 70° again.

1907
1/14 73°
1/15 71°
1/16 72°
1/17 70°
1/18 71°

2017
1/12 72°
1/13 75°
1/14 77° (Old record: 73°, 1907 and 1937)
1/15 73° (Tied record set in 2007)
1/16 71°

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On 1/15/2017 at 8:06 AM, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. FYI, Atlanta had a record high 77-degree reading yesterday.

I was there on Saturday and it was crazy warm.  I was in business meetings all day and I walked outside at one point and started sweating almost immediately.  The AC was on in the hotel and nobody realized quite how warm it actually was outside.  A car pulled up and I looked in and saw 81 on the dashboard thermo, granted it was in the sun but still...

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