psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Watch him closely MODS Yea seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: what happened in Portland? Not sure if serious... but huge snow bust... was supposed to get 1 to 2 inches of snow... ended up getting over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 who is wxrisk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure if serious... but huge snow bust... was supposed to get 1 to 2 inches of snow... ended up getting over a foot I heard. Lol sorry I was making fun of mr "don't trust the models JB is so good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Mid levels blow on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I don't know about you guys but i don't mind an ice storm. I love any type of winter precip, just not 33 with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 00z GFS showing 2-3 inches of snow for north central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 CMC showing about 3in for Central MD as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Kleimax said: CMC showing about 3in for Central MD as well Actually a solid improvement over 12z, precip comes in as a solid bout of WAA precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 00z GGEM hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Careful... 00z GGEM is a "sleet storm" for DCA... 10mm is sleet (0.4 QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Gfs has been pretty consistent with placement of that high... I'm "sure" it's not as skilled at mid-level, shorter range stuff that the various hi res NAMs might be.. Feels a lot like a decent chance of 2-3" for central md/just west of Baltimore. Who knows though... Hope the models latch back on to that 1-2" idea in nova Quote Interesting sleet-fest on the 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Careful... 00z GGEM is a "sleet storm" for DCA... 10mm is sleet (0.4 QPF) Yea it's close for them, looks like snow up in my neck of the woods near BWI and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yoda- any soundings available for latest GGEM? Thanks edit: for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Yoda- any soundings available for latest GGEM? Thanks I don't have any full soundings... but I can see we just miss a decent snowfall... from the piecemeal soundings I can see on AmWx... we are riding the fine line between sleet and snow... almost looks isothermal... we need to cool the 850 layer by about a degree... ETA: 00z GGEM suggests 1-2" of sleet for us in N VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 ^ ok, thanks yoda! We're in the game with that. Albeit game might not last all that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Sleet is fine. Seriously, who cares when its all gone by Tuesday when we begin the ascent toward 70 by Friday. I will gladly take sleet. Throw a 4 hour glaze of zr on top. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't have any full soundings... but I can see we just miss a decent snowfall... from the piecemeal soundings I can see on AmWx... we are riding the fine line between sleet and snow... almost looks isothermal... we need to cool the 850 layer by about a degree... ETA: 00z GGEM suggests 1-2" of sleet for us in N VA... I'm juat blending all guidance right now.I'm going with the wettest model, coldest model, and longest duration model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Speaking of... how's the German model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 getting massive amounts of sleet is like having a hot sister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcolger Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcolger Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Any chance we score a coup here? I would really like a warning event. It would be so nice. I so love snow. Areawide 6-8 sounds great. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcolger Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I'm juat blending all guidance right now.I'm going with the wettest model, coldest model, and longest duration model. From your post to God's ears. perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcolger Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I think DC will get a surprise now saturday, maybe all day!!. Portland OR was only supposed to get and inch or so of snow and some places around there got 15 inches. Dont look at the NAM, just have faith. Models arent infallible.I can't remember the last time Portland got hammered like that. Isn't it usually damp and overcast there? Someone must have been doing a serious snow dance to make that happen.perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just a quick look at the snowfall maps to get an idea of the axis of heaviest frozen precip shows that both the 06Z GFS and the NAM have improved. GFS shifts to the south once again to bring 2 inches into the cities and 3+ in the NW suburbs. The NAM has also shifted south with the axis of heaviest frozen though not enough to bring it past the PA line, except for NE MD where they get pummeled with 2+ inches. DC is fringed but just north of them see up to 1+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 hours ago, UVVmet84 said: Actually a solid improvement over 12z, precip comes in as a solid bout of WAA precip Im not surprised the models are changing for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Typical. DC snow/precip hole showing up once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Typical. DC snow/precip hole showing up once again. Check out the euro snow map if you want to see a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Im not surprised the models are changing for the better. That sounds like something one would say after shooting themselves in the jugular with a tranquilizer dart and falling in the pool. GFS did look better this morning than last night so there is that. wont mention the NAM. I promised I wouldn't until 8 runs from now. The para looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 tons of run to run model hugging/dying going on. This will be a nowcast storm with a very short lead up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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