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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill

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Gfs has been pretty consistent with placement of that high... I'm "sure" it's not as skilled at mid-level, shorter range stuff that the various hi res NAMs might be.. Feels a lot like a decent chance of 2-3" for central md/just west of Baltimore. Who knows though... Hope the models latch back on to that 1-2" idea in nova

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Interesting sleet-fest on the 0z gfs

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Yoda- any soundings available for latest GGEM? Thanks :)

I don't have any full soundings... but I can see we just miss a decent snowfall... from the piecemeal soundings I can see on AmWx... we are riding the fine line between sleet and snow... almost looks isothermal... we need to cool the 850 layer by about a degree...

ETA: 00z GGEM suggests 1-2" of sleet for us in N VA...  :axe:

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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't have any full soundings... but I can see we just miss a decent snowfall... from the piecemeal soundings I can see on AmWx... we are riding the fine line between sleet and snow... almost looks isothermal... we need to cool the 850 layer by about a degree...

ETA: 00z GGEM suggests 1-2" of sleet for us in N VA...  :axe:

I'm juat blending all guidance right now.I'm going with the wettest model, coldest model, and longest duration model. 

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I'm juat blending all guidance right now.I'm going with the wettest model, coldest model, and longest duration model. 


From your post to God's ears.

perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)

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I think DC will get a surprise now saturday, maybe all day!!. Portland OR was  only supposed to get and  inch or so of snow and  some  places around there got  15 inches. Dont look at the NAM, just have faith. Models arent  infallible.


I can't remember the last time Portland got hammered like that. Isn't it usually damp and overcast there? Someone must have been doing a serious snow dance to make that happen.

perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)

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Just a quick look at the snowfall maps to get an idea of the axis of heaviest frozen precip shows that both the 06Z GFS and the NAM have improved. GFS shifts to the south once again to bring 2 inches into the cities and 3+ in the NW suburbs. The NAM has also shifted south with the axis of heaviest frozen though not enough to bring it past the PA line, except for NE MD where they get pummeled with 2+ inches. DC is fringed but just north of them see up to 1+.  

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Im not surprised the models are changing for the better.

That sounds like something one would say after shooting themselves in the jugular with a tranquilizer dart and falling in the pool.  GFS did look better this morning than last night so there is that.  wont mention the NAM.  I promised I wouldn't until 8 runs from now.  The para looks awful. 

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