Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Precip is scattered all over. Surface still below freezing for just about everyone through 0z Sun but precip is pretty weak. Small stripe of 1-2 south of Dale City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: A bit behind the times, but 6z Para (which just came out) looks decent. 2-4 for most of the LWX CWA with lolli's to 6.. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 some light precip makes it up into MD later Saturday but by then we have lost the midlevels so its ice not snow. Initial band of snow goes south of DC then the second wave comes in further north but as a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: some light precip makes it up into MD later Saturday but by then we have lost the midlevels so its ice not snow. Initial band of snow goes south of DC then the second wave comes in further north but as a mix. Let's see how many different ways we can fail this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Ji said: obviously, this is the 500mb map that will likely give us our only so this winter. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011112&fh=78 That's excellent. I bet the analogs are nearly 0.0" of snow +/- 3 days from that map. This will be an interesting event if it unfolds. Good job to PSU and Chill for sniffing out the potential for such an anomalous event from so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Let's see how many different ways we can fail this winter. Wish i could post the euro snowmap, the snowhole right over the middle of our area is funny. Little band of 1-2" goes south of DC then a band of 1" runs right along the PA border with a gap with basically nothing from DCA to BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 so we can all blame Bob if this things doesn't work out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, mappy said: so we can all blame Bob if this things doesn't work out, right? No doubt. And I blame the intergalactal snow shield surrounding my yard. I'm like schleprock of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: No doubt. And I blame the intergalactal snow shield surrounding my yard. I'm like schleprock of snow. come north, friend. I've got plenty of yard space that you can pitch a tent, smoke some meat in our new smoker, beer store up the road. pool is a bit cold (and closed), but it's quiet! our dog won't bother you too much (the kid may though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Wish i could post the euro snowmap, the snowhole right over the middle of our area is funny. Little band of 1-2" goes south of DC then a band of 1" runs right along the PA border with a gap with basically nothing from DCA to BWI. I'll quote my advisor from back in the late 80's, the great Dr. Don Miller; "when faced with a tough forecast, go with persistence". Why should this storm be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Funny. It never fails. When you see the UK south you know you are screwed the next Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Premature thread killed another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 One of those lol winters where our area is just a stop on the way to the models eventually ending up too north or too south for our area with a system. But there's that magical 12-24 hour period 3-7 days out where we are shown something, at least there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12Z Saturday....whoda' thunk with this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Premature thread killed another one. I followed the 72 hours rule but like a dummy didn't wait for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I followed the 72 hours rule but like a dummy didn't wait for the euro. The ensembles will save you, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12Z Saturday....whoda' thunk with this map 10 days ago it was a hecs with similar looking anomolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 too soon to say anything definitive, 12z trended worse to me in every respect, weaker wave in general. I would rather get something healthy to come out along the boundary. 48 hours of snizzle is kinda of annoying more then anything else IMO. But we are way out for something like this where meso features will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: too soon to say anything definitive, 12z trended worse to me in every respect, weaker wave in general. I would rather get something healthy to come out along the boundary. 48 hours of snizzle is kinda of annoying more then anything else IMO. But we are way out for something like this where meso features will matter. Great soup and book reading weather.. terrible weather hobbyist outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 41 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12Z Saturday....whoda' thunk with this map Newbie Question! I see these geopotential height and anomaly maps posted all the time, but i have no clue what the red vs blue mean, and the numbers. I am assuming the red is warmer compared to the blue.....Any guidance is greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: too soon to say anything definitive, 12z trended worse to me in every respect, weaker wave in general. I would rather get something healthy to come out along the boundary. 48 hours of snizzle is kinda of annoying more then anything else IMO. But we are way out for something like this where meso features will matter. Since the front running batch is pretty narrow, we probably won't know exactly where until Friday. I would be surprised if most if not all of us don't get some form of winter wx out of this. The temp window is pretty long. Over 24 hours at the surface and trending longer each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since the front running batch is pretty narrow, we probably won't know exactly where until Friday. I would be surprised if most if not all of us don't get some form of winter wx out of this. The temp window is pretty long. Over 24 hours at the surface and trending longer each run. I never thought I'd be back here so soon, but CAD trends can be the worst (best)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since the front running batch is pretty narrow, we probably won't know exactly where until Friday. I would be surprised if most if not all of us don't get some form of winter wx out of this. The temp window is pretty long. Over 24 hours at the surface and trending longer each run. yea, there is still a lot to be decided, where that initial band sets up, how long the mid levels hang out, the euro even sags the boundary south again on Sunday enough that its close to snow up here for that batch that comes through Sunday evening. But on the other hand if things stay as they look now, honestly I think I would rather have a nice sunny 50 degree weekend then 48 hours of off and on light mixed precipitation that amounts to a grand total of 1/2" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 What does the CRAS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: so we can all blame Bob if this things doesn't work out, right? I've already got the torches and pitch forks on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 NAM looks cold to me but I'm driving in and have a tiny phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I don't know if we're in this much trouble, the cfsv2 weeklies are that bad, or the cad will be so much better. Maybe all 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 If the nam went out longer it looks like nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: If the nam went out longer it looks like nam'd Its only out to 60 that I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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