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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill

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1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said:

wbal met says precip in balto area starting later this morning, we shall see, not expecting much

That person reading the WBAL teleprompter is not a met. Enjoyed the forecast that offered no forecast about  what accumulation of any kind of precip there would be

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6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not nearly enough of course. Looks like a band of sleet through 7am dc burbs and zr northern tier tomorrow evening on the panels. Hard to say when precip falls across the northern tier so zr is a guess on my part based on the 6 hour panels. 

From the med into short range the euro is looking to end up way too dry and obviously too cold. The gfs was always the warmest model in the med to short range and was consistently showing between .2-.5 through the area. Have to wait until verification but the gfs looks to have performed the best between the globals with this one. 

It depends if you consider the whole 24 hour period as one system and simply grade total qpf and temps or if you grade based on the details.   

Gfs was keying on the first wave of precip Saturday morning. That's why it was snowier before. Our window was early. The cold starts to erode quickly once waa kicks in. The euro and U.K. were the first to pick up on that going south. That's a pretty significant catch. 

The 12k nam was the first to catch that the second wave Saturday afternoon would have some punch to it. Gfs was kind of in the middle and euro was bad with that. 

Gfs ends up scoring well because it was kinda in the middle on both waves. A little wrong or a little rights depending on your view. If you put the whole thing together it ends up scoring well but it was atrocious with the placement of the first wave which was pretty important since that was the snow/ice threat. It still had the snow across MD for several runs after euro shifted south. 

Gfs was also off on temps but not as bad as euro. Remember it was cold enough for snow at DCA up until a couple runs ago. So maybe gfs gets a D and euro an F there. I will admit euro was worse because it had colder temps even without precip while gfs was relying on convective cooling to get there. 

They all had their issues with this but I have a hard time giving the gfs a win even if it nailed 24 hour qpf and temp when it was putting 2-3" of snow over me run after run this morning from a band of precip that ended up in central VA. The euro nailed that one detail and that's the biggest detail to me since it's why I have bare ground. 

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33/20 here

Expecting nada for this first "wave". Later this evening maybe some light rain/sleet.

I am grateful for this "event", more so the glancing blow from the strong high pressure to the north, as it temporarily cut off the torch and gives us a few days of cold we would not otherwise have had. The fewer days in the 60s the better between now and a better pattern in 10 days or so.

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Sorry if there is anyone on here that I offend but the National Weather Service was clueless on this one. Seems like ever since that event in December with the I95 crashes, they are being ultra cautious with advisories. I get thats their job but I predicted those advisory cancellations this morning

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Sorry if there is anyone on here that I offend but the National Weather Service was clueless on this one. Seems like ever since that event in December with the I95 crashes, they are being ultra cautious with advisories. I get thats their job but I predicted those advisory cancellations this morning

that crash, driver of truck, based on video i,ve seen, was driving way too fast for road conditions, if people cant be cautious in bad, hazardous weather it  isnt the weather bureau's fault.

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1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said:

that crash, driver of truck, based on video i,ve seen, was driving way too fast for road conditions, if people cant be cautious in bad, hazardous weather it  isnt the weather bureau's fault.

Oh I agree..Im just saying. It seems like they have been in cautious/cover your ass mode since then. DC hasnt had a shot of poor road conditions with this since the advisory was ever issued. I said when they issued it that east of the Blue Ridge they should have waited another forecast cycle before hoisting advisories. Just not a good look when you post advisories and then have to drop them before the "event" ever begins.

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5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Oh I agree..Im just saying. It seems like they have been in cautious/cover your ass mode since then. DC hasnt had a shot of poor road conditions with this since the advisory was ever issued. I said when they issued it that east of the Blue Ridge they should have waited another forecast cycle before hoisting advisories. Just not a good look when you post advisories and then have to drop them before the "event" ever begins.

totally agree with you, i was more or less backing your originl atatement

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