BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I've noticed the hrrr always lags on its snowfall and precip totals looking at Sim radar..by s few hours it seems. I could be wrong though Here in Baltimore, Im expecting to be high and dry until at least 10AM....there is basically zero model support for a 4AM start time up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Qpf looks to warrant those high numbers.. depends on temps though .Yea, HRRR has been pretty steady suggesting 0.3" through the end of the run with temps below freezing. Other guidance earlier had me in the mid 30s tomorrow afternoon - HRRR has been on a heater this winter so I hope it's wintry depiction is right. HRRR keeps you below freezing so whatever falls will at least be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 No icing probs anticipated in Dale City, 45 degrees, 30 dewpoint. Some light rain/ light sleet. Low tonight should be 37 degrees with highs Saturday in the mid 40s. Road services ppl down here panic to the point of cardiac arrest every time someone mentions winter weather, roads are brined lol. All brined for a 2 day light regular rain. LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: No icing probs anticipated in Dale City, 45 degrees, 30 dewpoint. Some light rain/ light sleet. Low tonight should be 37 degrees with highs Saturday in the mid 40s. Road services ppl down here panic to the point of cardiac arrest every time someone mentions winter weather, roads are brined lol. All brined for a 2 day light regular rain. LMAO! Such a waste of resources sometimes...Granted the 'event' hasnt happened yet but I could tell since earlier today that this was likely to be a bust in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 NWS has me dumbfounded....some of the advisories kicked in at midnight for North Central VA...In Luray its raining and Warrenton its 42 and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Such a waste of resources sometimes...Granted the 'event' hasnt happened yet but I could tell since earlier today that this was likely to be a bust in Baltimore. If its a bust in Balto, it will likely bust down here. BTW - Kudos on the last storm - You stated about the DRY AIR last storm and you were absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: If its a bust in Balto, it will likely bust down here. BTW - Kudos on the last storm - You stated about the DRY AIR last storm and you were absolutely correct. Thanks...Somehow, dry air will also be an issue with this one lol...at least this far north for me. But this is failing simply because its a WAA event with marginal cold and light precip. Never a great recipe around here for much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 last storm, we could never have had enough money to pay for green returns across our area. Now, when it is too mild - PLENTY of green returns - and steady light rain. go figure Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Sleet in Arlington - 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 Euro now has .2-.3+ everywhere. Gfs wins the precip and probably the temp battle if current guidance is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro now has .2-.3+ everywhere. Gfs wins the precip and probably the temp battle if current guidance is right. How much of that is frozen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How much of that is frozen lol Not nearly enough of course. Looks like a band of sleet through 7am dc burbs and zr northern tier tomorrow evening on the panels. Hard to say when precip falls across the northern tier so zr is a guess on my part based on the 6 hour panels. From the med into short range the euro is looking to end up way too dry and obviously too cold. The gfs was always the warmest model in the med to short range and was consistently showing between .2-.5 through the area. Have to wait until verification but the gfs looks to have performed the best between the globals with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Light regular rain continues. No accretion is apparent due to relatively mild ground; temperature is down to 39 but the dewpoint is 33. We should continue to receive regular light rain thru the next 24 to 30 hours. Low will be 37 degrees. No sleet, freezing rain or snow is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Just went outside for a short jebwalk. We are getting steady rain and sleet. It is all melting as the temperature is 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Temperature is 36 degrees. We are experiencing a moderate fall of sleet and some sizable wet snowflakes mixing in. My car top is getting coated by sleet and slush. If this intensity keeps up - sleet and snow may accumulate on my car top and even on my driveway!!!!!!! I'm in shock - I never expected anything in Dale City except for regular rain and temperatures are already below what I thought would be tonights low. I just noticed that the surface reflectivities on the road in front of my house are changing markedly - what happens when sleet and snow begin to accumulate. Side roads may deteriorate quite a bit. The plain rain earlier may also have washed away much of the brine on the main roads which may lead to some slick main roads by 6am. The road in front of my house - in plain rain the road sort of glistens. But as the sleet and some snowflakes continue, the road is turning a flat black sort of color - and that is what happens before it goes over to white. This is MUCH MORE THAN WHAT I WAS EXPECTING. I was expecting light regular rain with a few sleet pellets thrown in. The top of my car is turning outright white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Fair skies up this way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 We caught a break. the sleet slacked off. The snow/sleet on my car top is not melting despite the 36 degree temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Radar says there's nothing to track but "maybe" periodic light precip. Basically...at least it's a good sports day on tap...and it's the weekend so...2-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 wbal met says precip in balto area starting later this morning, we shall see, not expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 37 and rain. Lots of salt accumulated on the roads though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 37 and rain. Lots of salt accumulated on the roads though. state roads brining the main roads, why, apparently sterling scared the crapout of them, roads arent belo freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 10:56 AM, yoda said: 12z GFS soundings from 69-78 are snow at DCA... 81 is sleet In case we ever get the idea the "GFS is deadly inside 72"...or "it's a lock"...this is where we were 72 hours ago. we are never good to go until the day of the event. You guys know this but I am learning it more for every event. Last event dry air, this event temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: In case we ever get the idea the "GFS is deadly inside 72"...or "it's a lock"...this is where we were 72 hours ago. we are never good to go until the day of the event. You guys know this but I am learning it more for every event. Last event dry air, this event temps. To be fair to the GFS all the models have had issues with this setup to some degree. And can you blame them? Talking about impulses influencing each other that are running across a boundary that has been sinking slowly south. Not exactly a slam dunk setup to be forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: To be fair to the GFS all the models have had issues with this setup to some degree. And can you blame them? Talking about impulses influencing each other that are running across a boundary that has been sinking slowly south. Not exactly a slam dunk setup to be forecasting. I know weather is complicated and it was a tough setup. But it seems most of our potential events are complicated. My post was more of a reminder to myself not to get my hopes up even inside 72. I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 35.7, 0.02" (rain) so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while. 7 days isn't that long to wait. This pattern relax looks brief. Things become convoluted later next weekend. May take a little longer for surface features to react but the pattern certainly doesn't look to stay tame for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I know weather is complicated and it was a tough setup. But it seems most of our potential events are complicated. My post was more of a reminder to myself not to get my hopes up even inside 72. I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while. One thing that I learned years ago is that complicated for our region in most cases means NO SNOW!!! If the models are accurate I don't think you will have such a long wait before you are up and tracking again. Heck our next possible trackable is showing up at day 8-9 though the odds of seeing a significant snow from it are slim at this time. Immediately after that the looks being thrown out are very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Temp 34. Sounds like rain and sleet mixed. Haven't been outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 WWA dropped for D.C. Most of Montgomery. About time, because this was never going to be an "event" on to Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 32 over here. Just had some sleet. And just got a text from my daughters dance stuido of ca cancelled classes today due to winter weather. Checked radar and waiting to see what is in that big yellow blob heading my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.