BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Calm down... I think people are getting a little edgy with the latest "fail". First the models account for snowcover and its effects on the column. Second, snowcover has a dramatic effect on surface temperatures but those decrease as you go up. 3rd, there was very little chance any snow survived the conditions of the last 48 hours down there. I think some of us were poking fun, not attacking you or anyone. I have and will again say some dumb things or be folly to weenieisms when trying to hold onto hope. This threat is pretty much dead though, and maybe because its probably 2 weeks before we have anything else to track its not having a peaceful death. I did calm down a lot sooner than everyone else. That's a good summary. It's the fact I asked a question that started it all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: The antecedent airmass was just too mild. Definitely one of my concerns with this setup. I think ppl get caught up in low and high location. If ain't cold enough it ain't cold enough lol. Hopefully we can still find a way to get snow tv even if ground temps are fringe. The weakening of the system is also part of the problem. Those colder profiles were during heavier precip due to convective cooling processes aiding a marginal air mas. Go back and look at the profiles right before and after the heavier burst of precip in the morning on those "colder" runs and you will see the temps looked pretty meh. Remove the heavy precip and you lose the colder temperatures also. It may show 33 and drizzle but if it were precipitating heavily it would still be 31 and snow/sleet mix. This was always marginal and a slight move in the wrong direction was a knife to our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Calm down... I think people are getting a little edgy with the latest "fail". First the models account for snowcover and its effects on the column. Second, snowcover has a dramatic effect on surface temperatures but those decrease as you go up. 3rd, there was very little chance any snow survived the conditions of the last 48 hours down there. I think some of us were poking fun, not attacking you or anyone. I have and will again say some dumb things or be folly to weenieisms when trying to hold onto hope. This threat is pretty much dead though, and maybe because its probably 2 weeks before we have anything else to track its not having a peaceful death. Well said on all accounts, PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm in!! Riding this pony until her shoes drop off . That's how you roll?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, kurtstack said: a legit description of the euro would be appreciated - just wondering where qpf max is roughly at this point - and a genral idea of where the 32 degree line sets up. thanks - Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There is nothing really to describe. The initial wave (the one that was supposed to be our threat) goes well to our south, places down near CHO get about .25 qpf early Saturday morning from that, but its way too warm down there. Then wave 2 comes across our area with very very light precip off and on through Saturday evening. Were talking .05-.09 total qpf over 12 hours kind of stuff across the area with temps around 33-34 degrees. Cold drizzle. Snow map shows pretty much nothing except a 1/2" stripe along the northern edge of the second wave in PA. Its a non event, like it has been for several runs on the euro. It caught on to this a couple days ago and it has just taken a lot longer for the American based guidance to catch up. And before we start a model war discussion the GFS has had its share of wins this year, but it lost this battle big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 There is nothing really to describe. The initial wave (the one that was supposed to be our threat) goes well to our south, places down near CHO get about .25 qpf early Saturday morning from that, but its way too warm down there. Then wave 2 comes across our area with very very light precip off and on through Saturday evening. Were talking .05-.09 total qpf over 12 hours kind of stuff across the area with temps around 33-34 degrees. Cold drizzle. Snow map shows pretty much nothing except a 1/2" stripe along the northern edge of the second wave in PA. Its a non event, like it has been for several runs on the euro. It caught on to this a couple days ago and it has just taken a lot longer for the American based guidance to catch up. And before we start a model war discussion the GFS has had its share of wins this year, but it lost this battle big time. thanks for the description hoff. i will be making a home in the digital snow thread the next two weeks until we can get something into reasonable model range to track again. enjoy the january thaw folks.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing really to describe. The initial wave (the one that was supposed to be our threat) goes well to our south, places down near CHO get about .25 qpf early Saturday morning from that, but its way too warm down there. Then wave 2 comes across our area with very very light precip off and on through Saturday evening. Were talking .05-.09 total qpf over 12 hours kind of stuff across the area with temps around 33-34 degrees. Cold drizzle. Snow map shows pretty much nothing except a 1/2" stripe along the northern edge of the second wave in PA. Its a non event, like it has been for several runs on the euro. It caught on to this a couple days ago and it has just taken a lot longer for the American based guidance to catch up. And before we start a model war discussion the GFS has had its share of wins this year, but it lost this battle big time. of course the war hasn't really started yet. I mean in all fairness everything is still numerical model output. I know which way its going and it looks bad...no argument... but if someone said to bet my house on the outcome for tomorrow I wouldn't even if I thought for sure I could win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Winter storm watches and warnings are in effect for the ..., ..., and mid-Atlantic areas this weekend. Ice is already causing airport closures and delays with a ripple effect throughout the nation's air traffic system. Our agents have been diligently contacting travelers scheduled to fly to/from the affected areas encouraging them accept re-accommodation in advance. In support of those clients remaining in the path of the storms, ... will have our Emergency Response Desk open this weekend during the following hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 My buddy sent a text this morning in a group chain asking how much snow we're going to get tomorrow. I told him "zippy." He countered by saying that Al Roker and the News 4 Weather Team said otherwise and that my skills are diminishing. He also used the point-and-click forecast from this morning to try to prove his point. Since I don't have any skills to begin with, I appreciate this thread if for no other reason than allowing me to clown him on a group text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Let's fast forward to Feb 1. We can track next week if we're lucky? This 1 trillionth of an inch of liquid isn't enough to cure any winter headaches. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Calm down... I think people are getting a little edgy with the latest "fail". First the models account for snowcover and its effects on the column. Second, snowcover has a dramatic effect on surface temperatures but those decrease as you go up. 3rd, there was very little chance any snow survived the conditions of the last 48 hours down there. I think some of us were poking fun, not attacking you or anyone. I have and will again say some dumb things or be folly to weenieisms when trying to hold onto hope. This threat is pretty much dead though, and maybe because its probably 2 weeks before we have anything else to track its not having a peaceful death. pffffffffft what brought you into this anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Bmore and Anne Arundel Counties already cancelled Saturday activities. Whoops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, H2O said: snowcover fight? really? Just 'cause I am bored (and underwhelmed for the potential this weekend and for the next 10 days after); data! From real, live remote sensors! Wooo, snow! On the 10th. Going...... On the 11th ...and, gone :^( On the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 looks deep^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 50 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I imagine the 4m soil temp would be pretty constant too, and well above freezing. 4 meters? LOL, yes, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The only thing I am sure of is that it whatever it is hasn't started yet and it's not a fail till tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, mappy said: pffffffffft what brought you into this anyway? :)- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'm headed on route 29 home and there are five plow trucks lined up filled with salt and plows down Lord help us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Congrats pretty much to all for the WWAs now hoisted. Stay vigilant, and may G-d watch over all as this monster system approaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 My wife called me to ask about tomorrow's weather for a co-worker who is flying out of DCA. I described it as de-icing the airplane delays rather than skid-off-the-runway delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 At what point did this become an impending blizzard to the genpop? It was never that... if anything it was barely a WWA event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, caviman2201 said: At what point did this become an impending blizzard to the genpop? It was never that... if anything it was barely a WWA event... I also keep getting worrysome requests for whats going to happen tomorrow.... where are these people getting their news.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 People don't know. They assume it's January and it snows. Media hype. General fear of winter. Yada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The weakening of the system is also part of the problem. Those colder profiles were during heavier precip due to convective cooling processes aiding a marginal air mas. Go back and look at the profiles right before and after the heavier burst of precip in the morning on those "colder" runs and you will see the temps looked pretty meh. Remove the heavy precip and you lose the colder temperatures also. It may show 33 and drizzle but if it were precipitating heavily it would still be 31 and snow/sleet mix. This was always marginal and a slight move in the wrong direction was a knife to our chances. Yea, it can snow and stick when temps are 33-35, especially at night, but usually only when it's coming down moderately. the fact that this was always broadcast as a light precip event (weakening system) makes it tough. i've never been a big fan of wave #1 after a warm airmass. we don't usually do well in those scenarios. we're better at establishing a cold pattern first and finding a storm. it's harder to get below freezing here than it is to get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: I also keep getting worrysome requests for whats going to happen tomorrow.... where are these people getting their news.... Justin Berk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Messages like this: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49474-january-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4411900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 People probably assume this is an extension of the Ice Storm back in the Plaines. I mean, in a way it is. Same frontal boundary, but entirely different set-up over our area. So connecting the two is probably why people think this will be a major event, even though those of us that have followed it all week have known it would likely be a novelty/minor event (except for a few runs here and there that showed some impressive solutions). I'm going to enjoy what little happens tomorrow and then get ready for post-torch chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Justin Berk. Even he is calling for at most 1" S&E of the fall line and at most 2" out to Parr's Ridge... even that seems unlikely now, but it isn't what I'd think would make people empty the bread aisles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 WWAs are up for <1" snow and <0.1" ice. Threshold sure seems low, especially coming off a torch for a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Thank goodness we still have the WSW. That is still sacred. The WWA is just play time folly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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