mappy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 lol nam is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Nam has shifted it's focus almost solely on the second wave Saturday night. By then our temps are toast and it rains with a couple pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: And toasty. It's just a weak disorganized mess. No precip no cold. The colder profiles were curtesy of some cooling during heavier precip rates. Everything's trending towards what the euro has had for the last few runs, a mostly non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Nam has shifted it's focus almost solely on the second wave Saturday night. By then our temps are toast and it rains with a couple pingers. That trend started a few runs ago and concerned me. Its been on the other guidance also but with less separation between the waves and lighter with the second so it was less obvious. But the better runs that were more "exciting" were a couple days ago when that first pulse coming in early Saturday looked healthy and right over our area. Since that has been more and more suppressed and instead we get several weak waves as the cold retreats. Thats not as promising a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 good run for places to our southwest like CHO, they could get 1-3" with that initial wave early Saturday, for everywhere else it looks like 24 hours of on and off light mixed crap. Perfect weekend weather. 33 and snizzle all weekend Correction: places southwest could get a glaze of ice, too much warm layer in mid levels for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 we will get teased again before its over. another NAMing perhaps at 18z..someone said earlier we cant even get nickeled and dimed...we are getting pennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: we will get teased again before its over. another NAMing perhaps at 18z..someone said earlier we cant even get nickeled and dimed...we are getting pennies. I dunno, we might be beyond the point of a naming. I think the 18z GFS yesterday was our naming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 So far this year there has been one rule that works very well, take whatever model shows the absolute worst solution and run with it. funny how that looks like the euro so many were tossing the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That trend started a few runs ago and concerned me. Its been on the other guidance also but with less separation between the waves and lighter with the second so it was less obvious. But the better runs that were more "exciting" were a couple days ago when that first pulse coming in early Saturday looked healthy and right over our area. Since that has been more and more suppressed and instead we get several weak waves as the cold retreats. Thats not as promising a setup. Time to hope for wave 1 to go south and hold in the cold for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Glanced at the 6Z RGEM just to check... I wouldn't peek at it if you want to hold onto some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Time to hope for wave 1 to go south and hold in the cold for wave 2. What cold? LOL, who cares. I"ll be in Knoxville, forecast high of 62! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's all fine. Whatever we get tomorrow and tomorrow night is bonus winter weather sandwiched in between a heat wave. If we get nothing so be it. No big deal. Let's get to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Before/After 2020 .... Next time Bob starts a storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What cold? LOL, who cares. I"ll be in Knoxville, forecast high of 62! It's not like there's no cold near us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 GFS wetter then NAM... Don't think its going to give us any snow out of this mess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The GFS keeps speeding up the arrival of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GFS wetter then NAM... Don't think its going to give us any snow out of this mess though. GFS warm as anything. Surface freezing never appears to get to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS warm as anything. Surface freezing never appears to get to DC. Yep. I remain out. Looked so good less than 24 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared. I doubt that no cad will happen like that. Models almost always struggle with these types of setups. Does anyone remember an instance where a modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins? I don't think I can think of one in recent memory! 12z gfs today 12z gfs from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared. I doubt that no cad will happen like that. Models almost always struggle with these types of setups. Does anyone remember an instance where I modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins? I don't think I can think of one in recent memory! Meh. High has slowly been getting weaker run after run. And with the precip getting here faster, I just don't think the cold air ever makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 just compare it to the 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Is it really that CAD disappeared, or is it that the cold air just isn't pressing as far south? It's not like there was ever CAD down into the south like we typically see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is it really that CAD disappeared, or is it that the cold air just isn't pressing as far south? It's not like there was ever CAD down into the south like we typically see. true, but the fact the models have been showing the signal all week makes me wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared. I doubt that no cad will happen like that. Models almost always struggle with these types of setups. Does anyone remember an instance where a modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins? I don't think I can think of one in recent memory! 12z gfs today 12z gfs from yesterday I believe that most of the times where we get cold air hanging on longer than the models suggest, it has been a firmly entrenched airmass. On this one, we are counting on cold air advection. I'm not sure the same "rules" will apply here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I believe that most of the times where we get cold air hanging on longer than the models suggest, it has been a firmly entrenched airmass. On this one, we are counting on cold air advection. I'm not sure the same "rules" will apply here. Thank you. That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 So does this mean we won't be kissing our sisters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Keep an eye on the trend of the dew point temperatures. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017011312/t3/dewp_t32m_f12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So does this mean we won't be kissing our sisters? we can but it will just result in disappointment and maybe a kick in the pills...not unlike tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Keep an eye on the trend of the dew point temperatures. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017011312/t3/dewp_t32m_f12.png The 14z HRRR had the DCA area at 37/29 at 8z, and the southward push of the drier DPs had stopped. Not ideal if you are looking for interesting ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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