knglover Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Question: (I apologize in advance if this is considered Banter or just Stupid in general) Do certain models do better historically based on the direction the storms come in from in terms of accuracy? Example: GFS does better with generally south to north storms as opposed to Euro doing better west to east storms. I creep the boards constantly and I really appreciate all the help. In fact, you guys saved me from a disastrous trip to Richmond last weekend where I would have been snowed in with my in-laws. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. There is no shortage of cases in which the GFS runs too warm at the sfc with low-level inversions, especially in winter precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker He's referring to that first push of precip before 18Z on Saturday-- the main snow part for us. That remains south in VA and is rain anyway for southern parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. obviously, this is the 500mb map that will likely give us our only so this winter. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011112&fh=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker That little stripe of snow across MD on the GGEM is actually from the second impulse Saturday Night into Sunday. By then the temps are compromised more, although if things keep trending colder perhaps that second wave becomes a player also. On the euro and gfs its the first wave Saturday that is the main event. GGEM goes well south and has no frozen with that. Also weaker and south in this case are kind of the same thing as a more suppressed weak solution is likely to be south. Notice on the GEFS and Euro members, the ones that are south have a less healthy snowfall max, while some of the runs that have it up over central PA have a pretty significant event up there. A stronger wave is also likely to have a more north track. So we are kind of walking the line again, we want a weak enough wave to stay south but not too weak. Our best combo would be a healthy wave but with a stronger high and cold push to offset but that is kind of getting greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z UKIE QPF map at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 and of course the GGEM which has given us the most snow this winter gives us nothing for this system. Seems like everything is going well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 UK looks south also.... would be funny if the last few runs that looked good were just a pit stop on the way to a suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: and of course the GGEM which has given us the most snow this winter gives us nothing for this system. Seems like everything is going well as expected fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Anyone have the GEFS report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Anyone have the GEFS report? I did out to 120 to include Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I like how we got to be happy for 30 minutes before the Cmc was all - "nah - you're too far north again" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I did out to 120 to include Sunday Thanks.....doesn't look like as many members get us in the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I did out to 120 to include Sunday Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM I wonder if that could be because the GFS is not recognizing the strength of the cold weather push like the NAM is? ETA: Or the answer could be what high risk just posted below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM I'm guessing those are "misses" in terms of the precip being ZR/IP instead of SN, as opposed to QPF misses, but I'm too lazy to verify..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Doesn't take long for people to find the most negative aspect they can find and make that the main discussion point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: I wonder if that could be because the GFS is not recognizing the strength of the cold weather push like the NAM is? The gfs has the 850 line farther south than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Doesn't take long for people to find the most negative aspect they can find and make that the main discussion point. You're new to the Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Weekend rule. It's HAPPENING! It is weird how that seems to work out. I'll take a 2-4" daytime snow over 4-8" nighttime. This seems to be the year of the stalled out front. I have a feeling we won't know much until tomorrow with that kind of setup where it's not a big storm, but one that requires good timing/placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Euro 12z Saturday 850 temps and wind http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Euro moved south from 0z. Nothing in MD through 12z Sat. NW va gets around .10 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12Z Saturday 850 RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12zx EURO is going to be south with QPF max looking at 66 versus teh 00z run... nothing at all in MD though 12z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 euro looks a good bit south to me, not sure its going to have much of anything north of DC this run but I guess I should let it play out, looks pretty pathetic for wave 1 though at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro moved south from 0z. Nothing in MD through 12z Sat. NW va gets around .10 or less. wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro? It does, but looks like it weakens some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 A bit behind the times, but 6z Para (which just came out) looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro? the first wave looks pretty Meh to me overall... weaker, souther, more pathetic. some very light qpf makes it up into MD saturday but its snizzle type stuff certainly nothing exciting. Wave 2 might get some qpf in but by then temps are probably compromised, although if things keep trending colder perhaps that becomes the main threat not wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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