psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 South trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: South trend continues. Yeah, somehow the cold is further north but the precip further south. Sorry, but my money ain't on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Nam would be very low impact in DC proper... temps only get to about 31-32 with light precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, somehow the cold is further north but the precip further south. Sorry, but my money ain't on the NAM Me either but it's not just the nam. Gfs ggem euro U.K. Are all trending south every run compared to their last run. Euro and U.K. Now are a non event. If the trend continues the other guidance is heading that way too. Still time to recover but this is a bad time to be trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 South? It looks like snow blossoms to the north of our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 its definitely weaker but it looks north to me with the precip - what little there isSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Lol 14 years later and the play by play is still the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 yeah it gets precip up to ny state this runSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Me either but it's not just the nam. Gfs ggem euro U.K. Are all trending south every run compared to their last run. Euro and U.K. Now are a non event. If the trend continues the other guidance is heading that way too. Still time to recover but this is a bad time to be trending the wrong way. Meh...it was trending "better" the day before last week and we know what happened, so I'm not sure the trend matters when the computers seem to have little idea with these minor, meso events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4km looks awful. Dry and uneventful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 North or south? May as well be east or west based on the pbp in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, CoastalBecs said: North or south? May as well be east or west based on the pbp in here. It's dry and north on 12km...it's dry and cold on 4km. The theme is dry on the NAM. Just my assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's dry and north on 12km...it's dry and cold on 4km. The theme is dry on the NAM. Just my assessment.Fits other guidance. 18z NAM'd us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4k is 1-2" of snow unless I'm blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol 14 years later and the play by play is still the same New rule. Pbp is reserved for the max potential areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 4km looks awful. Dry and uneventful. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: South? It looks like snow blossoms to the north of our CWA. The nam is jumping on the second wave Saturday afternoon into evening. That's a new development and we will have to see what the other 0z guidance says before deciding if it's just the nam being nam. But either way the mid levels are shot by then for anyone south of Westminster. It's actually a better run for me but that second batch the nam develops north isn't the threat the D.C. Area is tracking. The initial wave that comes in early Saturday is south. The second wave goes north but wouldn't be snow anyways. This is the last 3 nam runs for that first wave. You can see the trend. The stuff that goes north is irrelevant as that's not a snow threat for D.C. Anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh...it was trending "better" the day before last week and we know what happened, so I'm not sure the trend matters when the computers seem to have little idea with these minor, meso events. I'm not passing final judgement. But I dint like the trends. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'm not passing final judgement. But I dint like the trends. That's all. that nam run was still better than the euro - would like to see some more qpf on the euroSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, kurtstack said: that nam run was still better than the euro - would like to see some more qpf on the euro Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's a low bar. The euro was a total non event. I guess it depends what your looking for. I suppose if the goal is to see some flakes and whiten the ground things are going fine. But if we were hopeful this trended a little better into a respectable event that seems less likely each run. It could turn around. These kinds of things give the models fits. But that doesn't mean I want to see a weaker wave each run leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I now have issues with this model unless the Plains are that dry as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 That's a low bar. The euro was a total non event. I guess it depends what your looking for. I suppose if the goal is to see some flakes and whiten the ground things are going fine. But if we were hopeful this trended a little better into a respectable event that seems less likely each run. It could turn around. These kinds of things give the models fits. But that doesn't mean I want to see a weaker wave each run leading up to it. i agree thats why i mentioned i would like to see the euro step up its qpf as we get closerSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 expectations of qpf above .25 is probably asking a bit much in this setup unless you get the added lift in higher elevations - my bar has been low for this event - but i think an 1-2" of snow or sleet is possible if it comes together just rightSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I think one of the reasons the NAM isn't that cold early on is the lack of much precip. The 30F dewpoint line is way south. Bring the precip back north and it will go back to being colder at last at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, kurtstack said: expectations of qpf above .25 is probably asking a bit much in this setup unless you get the added lift in higher elevations - my bar has been low for this event - but i think an 1-2" of snow or sleet is possible if it comes together just right Agree --that's my high bar for this event. My bust is a coating [or less] of whatever frozen form exists on the ground, pretty much for anyone north of DC. I won't be happy with anything that isn't more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol TTB has an algorithm flaw. The precip types over the Plains never show snow yet the accumulation map shows 5-6"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, BTRWx said: TTB has an algorithm flaw. The precip types over the Plains never show snow yet the accumulation map shows 5-6"+... yep! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017011300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Categorical ice: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017011300&time=INSTANT&var=CICEP&hour=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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