SLPressure Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The kind of data being posted isn't available for Winchester AFAIK. No offense, but what it says for DC matters not here. I use the American Weather Models pages for the skew data. It does show data for Winchester. Whether or not this is accurate I am not sure, but i assume it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Bufkit NAM says...not bad, not bad at all The profiles don't change much for dca for much of Saturday from snow early A.M. ~6:00 to sleet ~8:00 then midday lull, then a interestingly notable freezing rain column Saturday evening wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: DCA at 42 DCA at 48 The columns look good on both the NAM and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: What hrs do you want? 39, 42, 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You don't warm frozen ground with one or two days of warmth. You might warm the top 1/2" but the ground is frozen. I promise you if snow falls I'll post pics of the snow covered ground shortly after it falls ... just like I did last week when this discussion was had the first time. Was it frozen? Never was here. I had 6" of snow here last Saturday. By Sunday mid morning it was 4.5". The air temp was a max of 24 during the event, and fell to the mid teens following it. High on Sunday was 23. In the days preceding the storm, there was a significant amount of rainfall and mild temps, followed by 2 days with high temps in the mid 30s. I don't think I lost an inch and a half of snow from sublimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, SLPressure said: I use the American Weather Models pages for the skew data. It does show data for Winchester. Whether or not this is accurate I am not sure, but i assume it is. Same here... it gives soundings right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SLPressure said: I use the American Weather Models pages for the skew data. It does show data for Winchester. Whether or not this is accurate I am not sure, but i assume it is. Yeah, could be. I don't have access to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Same here... it gives soundings right away Twisterdata has good ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Text data for 18z NAM for KOKV shows a 0.2 reading at 800 for Winchester. That won't cut it if you're looking for sleet or freezing rain. All other levels were below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z GFS had no level above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I found a sounding for near Winchester and DC from the 18z GFS and both have warm noses around 850 at 45. -0.7 at 850mb is the warmest layer on the sounding at hr 45 at DCA... its snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Was it frozen? Never was here. I had 6" of snow here last Saturday. By Sunday mid morning it was 4.5". The air temp was a max of 24 during the event, and fell to the mid teens following it. High on Sunday was 23. In the days preceding the storm, there was a significant amount of rainfall and mild temps, followed by 2 days with high temps in the mid 30s. I don't think I lost an inch and a half of snow from sublimation. Solid as a rock here. We still have ice on ponds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 39, 42, 45 39 42 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Twisterdata has good ones too. Can't do Winchester there. Yoda post those soundings please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: -0.7 at 850... its snowing I was looking at 12z, I deleted the post. My fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 This NAM run should be telling. We are in striking distance. Good luck everyone. I'm not staying up all night for this one. No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Thanks Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Can't do Winchester there. Yoda post those soundings please. just did... see my post directly above yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Are those GFS or NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, yoda said: just did... see my post directly above yours Yeah, we posted at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Are those GFS or NAM? 18z GFS... do you want the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z GFS... do you want the 18z NAM? That would be great. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Text data for 18z NAM for KOKV shows a 0.2 reading at 800 for Winchester. That won't cut it if you're looking for sleet or freezing rain. All other levels were below freezing. The 18z GFS sounding for Winchester at 45 has 800's at 0.1 and 850's at 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, ravensrule said: FYP. LOL. Post of the year candidate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SLPressure said: The 18z GFS sounding for Winchester at 45 has 800's at 0.1 and 850's at 0.4 Thank you. Ive no illusions that we go snow all the way through. I felt like maybe 1am to 10am and then change. But with decent rates you could get 3" or so out of that many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I hope everyone here is okay with me posting this here (move the meted forums as you wish) I'm going to give an overview here how to read these soundings maps. Please don't hurt the messenger. I'm only trying to help the new members! First, the red line shows the temperature of an air parcel in the given atmosphere and green is the same for the dew point temperature. The x-axis shows different temperatures and mixing ratios along a linear axis for analysis purposes. y=0 is the surface of the Earth and the entire y-axis corresponds to elevation/heights above the surface. Each horizontal dashed white line is an isobar showing constant pressure values. Here are some simplified interpretation suggestions. 1) the 0 temperature line that rises to the upper right is important. To the left of this line show frozen precipitation and to the right of this 0 degree isotherm line of constant temperature shows liquid precipitation above freezing that would fall as rain. 2) The surface and just above are important for precipitation types. The longer the line stays to the left of the 0 line, the more likely snow will fall. 3) To determine precipitation, the red and green lines must be as close together and adjacent as possible. Typically when the difference between the temperature and dew point is less than or equal to 5 degrees at the surface, precipitation may be expected. The difference is known as the dew point depression. We want this number close to 0 for heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That would be great. Thanks The ones I posted were the NAM eta: 12z, dang it! oh well. Take it from here Yodar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Solid as a rock here. We still have ice on ponds. Not here. Two days of temps in the 30s followed by an insulating layer of snow wont do it. The very cold temps came after it fell, and thats probably why the ground wasn't really frozen here. And initially I thought settling was most likely the culprit because it was a powdery snow, but it wasn't those big airy dendrites. It had that somewhat lumpy, sunken look to it. Clearly melted from the bottom due to wet, relatively warm soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: just did... see my post directly above yours Thanks Yoda! Just ignore me the rest of the night. I clearly dont know what the hell I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you. Ive no illusions that we go snow all the way through. I felt like maybe 1am to 10am and then change. But with decent rates you could get 3" or so out of that many hours. Obviously the models are all over the place on this one. A little bump in precipitation rates or temperatures and where the line sets up will make all the difference. It does seem that it will be a low end event. You never know. Just gotta see how things unfold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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