Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Temps and precip are the biggest issue I can see. Other than that we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?) Exactly how warm is that layer? Is it 800 or 900? 850 is between them and is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, here we go again. Not sure why this is laughed at and dismissed. Maybe I have missed something, but soil temps do matter, especially when we are looking a light precip event shortly after a day of temps of near 70. Sure if this were a dynamic event with heavy precip, warm ground could be easily overcome. That is not what we are looking at here, and its not like we are talking about daytime temps in the low 20s while the precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's very light snow. The 4K and 3k nam are less then 1/2" up here. Party pooper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure why this is laughed at and dismissed. Maybe I have missed something, but soil temps do matter, especially when we are looking a light precip event shortly after a day of temps of near 70. Sure if this were a dynamic event with heavy precip, warm ground could be easily overcome. That is not what we are looking at here, and its not like we are talking about daytime temps in the low 20s while the precip is falling. You don't warm frozen ground with one or two days of warmth. You might warm the top 1/2" but the ground is frozen. I promise you if snow falls I'll post pics of the snow covered ground shortly after it falls ... just like I did last week when this discussion was had the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?) Uh the column was clearly cold enough for snow on the 18z GFS. Case in point, see hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?) Yes, but that as a base for drizzly zr would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said: I've been a lurker on here for a while and I just wanted to thank everyone for all the very informative posts over the year. I've loved reading this forum. If there is one thing I've learned from this blog over the years though, it's that we are all probably overly optimistic about snow. So that being said, a not so bold prediction: With clouds rolling in on Friday night we don't manage to cool to 32 from 48 degrees in 16 hours. We probably won't get there until midmorning Saturday if ever and ground temps will change even more slowly. Magically of our 3 inches of snow, 1 inch misses us, because there isn't a solid precip shield, 1 inch is wasted because it's just white rain, and the last inch changes over to sleet or plain rain. By the end of it we have a half inch of accumulated slop on grassy areas only. And that's if there is even qpf to talk about. Now that I got that off my chest, I'm rooting for you guys and this non-storm to prove me wrong. Welcome, Deb. Eskimo Joe needs some company, so don't be a stranger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 If this were a straight ZR event I would think it won't be very interesting at those temps. But add the IP and maybe SN and who knows. Keep expectations low and perhaps things will come together for a minor winter event that will be gone and forgotten by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'm interested to find out how this event turns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Interesting forecast from LWX. They have a totally north south gradient on snow. My assumption is they aren't certain on how far south the cold can push. I find days like tomorrow very interesting. Watching cold air ooze south is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 4" morning soil wood is toasty tasty. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm interested to find out how this event turns out always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly how warm is that layer? Is it 800 or 900? 850 is between them and is below freezing. EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 How do you easily capture bufkit images for display without screenshots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Uh the column was clearly cold enough for snow on the 18z GFS. Case in point, see hr 45 Hour 45 is clearly snow. Hours 42 and 48 on the other hand are a mix to sleet. After that we are looking at a mix of sleet and freezing rain. This according to the soundings on the 18z GFS for DC and south. Location, location, location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Uh the column was clearly cold enough for snow on the 18z GFS. Case in point, see hr 45 Look at the rest of the run and not one hour of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SLPressure said: Hour 45 is clearly snow. Hours 42 and 48 on the other hand are a mix to sleet. After that we are looking at a mix of sleet and freezing rain. This according to the soundings on the 18z GFS for DC and south. Location, location, location... Thank you brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me. 18z GFS at 45 hrs at DCA... let me know location and hour and I can get the sounding for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS at 45 hrs at DCA Throw up the Skew for the 3 hours before and after that Yoda please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, here we go again. I mean...it's true. When it's 70 degrees today and 50 tomorrow, it's a legit concern. The last time I that concern with that first wave, streets (at least where I'm at) were just wet. Even in the cold spots roads were generally fine. It's not that easy to get road stickage here, never has been unless you get out to the colder burbs. If it's in the upper 20s I could see it happening but roads aren't gonna just collect snow after 30 minutes being freezing after 2 days of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me. LOL, not coming after you with post. For one, I don't even know how you know there's a warm layer. Do you have a site that shows temps at each layer? There's no site that I know of that gives the diagrams for Winchester. I do have a site that gives the text data but I haven't looked at it. My comment about "exactly" was just me trying to find out how warm and how deep. A couple hundred meters of +0.5 might mangle flakes but I think it can be overcome. 500 meters of + 2 would probably be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The kind of data being posted isn't available for Winchester AFAIK. No offense, but what it says for DC matters not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Throw up the Skew for the 3 hours before and after the Yoda please. Will do... give me a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me. http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 DCA at 42 DCA at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The kind of data being posted isn't available for Winchester AFAIK. No offense, but what it says for DC matters not here. What hrs do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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