eurojosh Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Boom at 45 on the GFS. Probably just setting us up for the eventual let down as the event gets closer though. More of a splat than a boom, judging by the thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: More of a splat than a boom, judging by the thermal profiles. 45 is clearly snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: More of a splat than a boom, judging by the thermal profiles. Warm layer above 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 45 is clearly snow at DCA 4" soil temps are gonna kill us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Happy hour run ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Happy hour run ftw Bring it home Yoda. That looks quite pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 One high over NE gets replaced by another. I wonder if the surface will be colder than advertised. It's not like we immediately get a screaming SW wind to scour it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yes, we approve Yoda. Axis is not as narrow, but still slipping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Boom at 45 on the GFS. Probably just setting us up for the eventual let down as the event gets closer though. I'm not trolling here be careful. Gfs and nam were good but also have been trending south for several runs now. It was only a couple days ago I was south of the action and now I'm north. Yes they look good but be careful that their not just a pit stop on the way to the U.K. Euro idea of a weak wave suppressed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 hours ago, snowdude said: I'm thinking we should follow the RGEM/CMC/GFS with this system. A burst of snow Saturday morning changing to sleet and or freezing rain. Leaning towards a minor event but enough to cause some problems. Models picking up on strong CAD/location of high now and keeping event farther south than they had it before. EURO is way sheared out IMO, however that is a strong high pressure north. That's right. Can I post here too? Good response! I like that your analysis goes hand in hand with my previous comments whether deliberate or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not trolling here be careful. Gfs and nam were good but also have been trending south for several runs now. It was only a couple days ago I was south of the action and now I'm north. Yes they look good but be careful that their not just a pit stop on the way to the U.K. Euro idea of a weak wave suppressed south. Given our fortune this season and the EURO bring the model of "No" so far this season...things probably are going south again...Shoot! I'm close to calling in the punt team for this (I hope suppression doesn't become a theme, smh But hopefully we get some more shots starting late in the month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Given our fortune this season and the EURO bring the model of "No" so far this season...things probably are going south again...Shoot! I'm close to calling in the punt team for this (I hope suppression doesn't become a theme, smh But hopefully we get some more shots starting late in the month) I'm not throwing any towel yet just not in love with the trends either. Keep in mind I'm north of most in here so things are slipping away more so for me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not throwing any towel yet just not in love with the trends either. Keep in mind I'm north of most in here so things are slipping away more so for me right now. How far north can you be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I knew happy hour GooFuS would pull us all in. Let's lock this baby up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 inches on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: 4 inches on the 4km NAM One of these outputs will eventually come around due to the law of averages. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Another key will be how quickly temps fall Friday evening. If it starts out at snow at 35 degrees, it ain't sticking, not after this brief warmup and not with light precip. Wondering how cold it ultimately gets. Could be some wasted precip at the beginning depending on the temp at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven't seen a sounding posted yet that had a warm layer that screams sleet. Low rates of precip maybe, but with any heavier precip, I think snow. Precip looks pretty light overall, and there is a warm layer between 850 and 925 mb that pushes in from the SW. Location and timing of this varies between models and from run to run. Snowfall "estimates" seem high to me on NAM and GFS. I would expect it to be more mixy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, 87storms said: Another key will be how quickly temps fall Friday evening. If it starts out at snow at 35 degrees, it ain't sticking, not after this brief warmup and not with light precip. Wondering how cold it ultimately gets. Could be some wasted precip at the beginning depending on the temp at onset. Euro/nam/rgem show plenty of hours of sub freezing late fri night and well into Sat. Looks to me like the biggest issue is precip. Temps look fine. Main roads prob won't be bad no matter what happens but it could easily be a wintry scene as long as precip is there. Northern tier may not go above freezing until sometime Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 If we get 4 inches, I will personally take a private plane up and apologize to the weather Gods about being a cliff jumper from Norfolk's blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro/nam/rgem show plenty of hours of sub freezing late fri night and well into Sat. Looks to me like the biggest issue is precip. Temps look fine. Main roads prob won't be bad no matter what happens but it could easily be a wintry scene as long as precip is there. Northern tier may not go above freezing until sometime Sunday morning Nice. Yea I was more concerned with the intial batch. I have seen in the past where temps don't drop like we expect and we end up with a mix and 37. Hoping that's not the case. Daytime snow is the shiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18z GEFS snowfall mean at 72 hrs is 2.5 inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: How far north can you be? That's very light snow. The 4K and 3k nam are less then 1/2" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I've been a lurker on here for a while and I just wanted to thank everyone for all the very informative posts over the year. I've loved reading this forum. If there is one thing I've learned from this blog over the years though, it's that we are all probably overly optimistic about snow. So that being said, a not so bold prediction: With clouds rolling in on Friday night we don't manage to cool to 32 from 48 degrees in 16 hours. We probably won't get there until midmorning Saturday if ever and ground temps will change even more slowly. Magically of our 3 inches of snow, 1 inch misses us, because there isn't a solid precip shield, 1 inch is wasted because it's just white rain, and the last inch changes over to sleet or plain rain. By the end of it we have a half inch of accumulated slop on grassy areas only. And that's if there is even qpf to talk about. Now that I got that off my chest, I'm rooting for you guys and this non-storm to prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Another key will be how quickly temps fall Friday evening. If it starts out at snow at 35 degrees, it ain't sticking, not after this brief warmup and not with light precip. Wondering how cold it ultimately gets. Could be some wasted precip at the beginning depending on the temp at onset. LOL, here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said: I've been a lurker on here for a while and I just wanted to thank everyone for all the very informative posts over the year. I've loved reading this forum. If there is one thing I've learned from this blog over the years though, it's that we are all probably overly optimistic about snow. So that being said, a not so bold prediction: With clouds rolling in on Friday night we don't manage to cool to 32 from 48 degrees in 16 hours. We probably won't get there until midmorning Saturday if ever and ground temps will change even more slowly. Magically of our 3 inches of snow, 1 inch misses us, because there isn't a solid precip shield, 1 inch is wasted because it's just white rain, and the last inch changes over to sleet or plain rain. By the end of it we have a half inch of accumulated slop on grassy areas only. And that's if there is even qpf to talk about. Now that I got that off my chest, I'm rooting for you guys and this non-storm to prove me wrong. So you're saying there's a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, here we go again. 4" morning soil is toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 4" morning soil is toasty. I've never been 4" deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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