BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I need a north trend. I want to wake up to heavy snow. I can start my drive in snow, enjoy it for a while, but be out of it in 30 miles. Perfect. you'll get it. I promise. North trend never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 CMC is juicy. This would all be wintry of some sort or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Per Wes, "I don't trust the model forecasts of light precipitation when the forcing is weak, sometimes the models overdo the amounts and the precipitation field is often fractured." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CMC is juicy. This would all be wintry of some sort or another. that is very nice indeed. I hope the temps hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per Wes, "I don't trust the model forecasts of light precipitation when the forcing is weak, sometimes the models overdo the amounts and the precipitation field is often fractured." Thank you Debbie Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Per Wes, "I don't trust the model forecasts of light precipitation when the forcing is weak, sometimes the models overdo the amounts and the precipitation field is often fractured." Oh good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 The GEM verbatim is a sleet storm for most of us. But I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS sucks at CAD/wedge stuff. Go with the NAM thermals and whatever model give you the most precip. Joking aside, I think there's some truth to this maybe with emphasis on what I bold. As far as precip, would it be too farfetched to say globals would tend to have a better depiction of precip areal coverage for cad/wedge stuff? I honestly don't know about the second part...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I'll say it again...beware the tall timbers to west when the qpf is weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 For what it's worth, the para is a good 50 miles north with the precip before the liquid takes over for both the 0z and 12z ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I'll be rooting for drizzly zr around here. ...can be just as dangerous sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per Wes, "I don't trust the model forecasts of light precipitation when the forcing is weak, sometimes the models overdo the amounts and the precipitation field is often fractured." This sentence confuses me. I might need commas where there are none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: This sentence confuses me. I might need commas where there are none. It's a direct quote from his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a direct quote from his Facebook page. Replace with a period and it looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per Wes, "I don't trust the model forecasts of light precipitation when the forcing is weak, sometimes the models overdo the amounts and the precipitation field is often fractured." 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: This sentence confuses me. I might need commas where there are none. Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a direct quote from his Facebook page. I guess I'm confused in that he says he doesn't trust forecasts of light precipitation when forcing is weak...but wouldn't weak forcing argue for light precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Fixed it for you. I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 So I am confused based on the varying comments. Are we looking better or worse? Most of the models posted show we look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I guess I'm confused in that he says he doesn't trust forecasts of light precipitation when forcing is weak...but wouldn't weak forcing argue for light precipitation? He's saying to not trust the juicy model forecasts because precip is blotchy instead of solid shield and mid level forcing isn't very impressive so heavy rates for longer periods of time is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalBecs said: So I am confused based on the varying comments. Are we looking better or worse? Most of the models posted show we look better. Better. Wintry but maybe sleety. NAM temps + CMC Precip = Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 UK looks pretty meh to me, better south of DC then north for sure, but pretty weak sauce with the wave in general. Might be a sign the euro is about to crap on our parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Interesting I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Hr54 on the gfs is the best panel for wintry wx. If you look at the 700mb vv's you can see there isn't much lift going on. Enough for light precip but not impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: UK looks pretty meh to me, better south of DC then north for sure, but pretty weak sauce with the wave in general. Might be a sign the euro is about to crap on our parade. If the UK is south. We are most likely screwed in regards to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: I guess I'm confused in that he says he doesn't trust forecasts of light precipitation when forcing is weak...but wouldn't weak forcing argue for light precipitation? It's called weak sauce qpf vs. mountain = don't trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He's saying to not trust the juicy model forecasts because precip is blotchy instead of solid shield and mid level forcing isn't very impressive so heavy rates for longer periods of time is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Hr54 on the gfs is the best panel for wintry wx. If you look at the 700mb vv's you can see there isn't much lift going on. Enough for light precip but not impressive at all. I miss talking about VVs. Big VVs are like big (.)(.)s to a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He's saying to not trust the juicy model forecasts because precip is blotchy instead of solid shield and mid level forcing isn't very impressive so heavy rates for longer periods of time is pretty unlikely. That's what I figured. Just didn't add up to me. I'm looking too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Interesting I guess Lame would be more like it. It doesn't take much to say "yeah, we're confident of an event, just don't know the impact." I hate those products. Waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hr54 on the gfs is the best panel for wintry wx. If you look at the 700mb vv's you can see there isn't much lift going on. Enough for light precip but not impressive at all. Isn't that what we need for ice rinks? eta: ie., any stronger forcing would mix the warmth down to the surface quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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