BristowWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 11:52 AM, H2O said: tons of run to run model hugging/dying going on. This will be a nowcast storm with a very short lead up Expand I thought LWX forecast write up sounded promising saying "Precip rounding the high along a stationary front Sunday warrants chancePoPs for the southern half of the CWA. A rain/wintry mix line looks to set up over the CWA, north of the stationary front. Cold air wins out with the front sagging south of the CWA as a cold front" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 11:52 AM, H2O said: tons of run to run model hugging/dying going on. This will be a nowcast storm with a very short lead up Expand Exactly. We wont even know how cold or the depth of the cold until tomorrow. Let alone where/if the precip is even sets up. And what the hell happened in this thread overnight. Did we suddenly become the NW forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I don't know why we always seem surprised when the mountain shadow shows up on weak sauce events coming from the west. It happens with rain as well. Weak sauce + mountains = %#&* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 NAM was poo for us, but GFS gives westminster 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 12:29 PM, mappy said: NAM was poo for us, but GFS gives westminster 3" Expand You know the rules here. Hug the model that gives your backyard the most frozen. :-) So how does Carobindale and Portland look for Saturday? <<Blank stare emoji>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 12:36 PM, Scraff said: You know the rules here. Hug the model that gives your backyard the most frozen. :-) So how does Carobindale and Portland look for Saturday? <<Blank stare emoji>> Expand INTERIOR RULES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Looking at the last 3 EURO runs for this Saturday at DCA the total precipitation has decreased from 0.32 to 0.16 to 0.10 inches while the total snow has decreased from ~2 to 3/4 to 1/2". The minimum temperature during the period of precipitation has increased from 29 to 30 while the maximum has remained around 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I found a new site that puts out NAM maps about an hour early. It shows 6-8" across the entire region. Can't share the site though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:31 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I found a new site that puts out NAM maps about an hour early. It shows 6-8" across the entire region. Can't share the site though. Expand is your internet only working for certain sites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:02 PM, dallen7908 said: Looking at the last 3 EURO runs for this Saturday at DCA the total precipitation has decreased from 0.32 to 0.16 to 0.10 inches while the total snow has decreased from ~2 to 3/4 to 1/2". The minimum temperature during the period of precipitation has increased from 29 to 30 while the maximum has remained around 32. The OP did say 'minor' and 'threat', so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:32 PM, mappy said: is your internet only working for certain sites? Expand Yes. I programmed it to only show sites that proclaim massive snows for our area. BTW, the site I found shows you with the jackpot of about 9". Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. I programmed it to only show sites that proclaim massive snows for our area. BTW, the site I found shows you with the jackpot of about 9". Congrats. Expand #jackpotville exists for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Ice amounts should mostly be advisory level, though a stray warning level ice total is not impossible. Since we are coming out of warm period, this icing event doesn`t look quite as bad as the one back in mid December, but icy roads and trees will still be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:31 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I found a new site that puts out NAM maps about an hour early. It shows 6-8" across the entire region. Can't share the site though. Expand Not sure if serious. But this is like dangling a carrot in front of a rabbit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:52 PM, clskinsfan said: Not sure if serious. But this is like dangling a carrot in front of a rabbit!!! Expand Come on man. You know me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Come on man. You know me. Expand Storm mode! ... jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 A NAMing is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 1:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Come on man. You know me. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:20 PM, clskinsfan said: A NAMing is incoming. Expand hr 45 looks nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Looks nice for the MD line. Not much snow around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yeah, this seems like the most likely result. I'm not sure why Tapatalk images aren't working but it's like 3" in Mappy-ville and out towards the Blue Ridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:32 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, this seems like the most likely result. I'm not sure why Tapatalk images aren't working but it's like 3" in Mappy-ville and out towards the Blue Ridge as well. Expand I'm taking the 06z GFS... until the 12z shows different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:32 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, this seems like the most likely result. I'm not sure why Tapatalk images aren't working but it's like 3" in Mappy-ville and out towards the Blue Ridge as well. Expand I dont even think its that much. Looks like a little snow, some ice and then it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:34 PM, yoda said: I'm taking the 06z GFS... until the 12z shows different Expand Yeah, that seems like the ideal solution for all. 3" of snow/sleet would certainly be the best event of the winter. Sadly, 12z NAM run is what usually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Huh, looking at the NAM even a little more shows that the 2nd wave seems to be quite a bit of sleet for MD. If it keeps getting colder, maybe we can sneak that second wave into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Nam 3k is the one I'm going with for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:40 PM, Bob Chill said: Nam 3k is the one I'm going with for now. Expand We need a little more info, sir. Pressure is on you anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Here's hoping a couple of warm days will help keep roads clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Nobody liked the 06z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:40 PM, Bob Chill said: Nam 3k is the one I'm going with for now. Expand 4K is no slouch either. I am just waiting for the HRRRRRRR to get into range. That thing has been great this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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