Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z GFS soundings from 69-78 are snow at DCA... 81 is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z GFS snow accums 1-2" across the region per AmWx snow maps and per TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS soundings from 69-78 are snow at DCA... 81 is sleet The column has trended better for once. We're pretty close to the event and getting ticks colder at the surface and midlevels is pretty encouraging. GFS is a little drier than 6z through 18z sat but probably noise in the big picture. The folks out near the blue ridge could do half decent in the snowfall dept if the initial slug of precip gets juicier. Not much of a fight with dry air at all this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS snow accums 1-2" across the region per AmWx snow maps and per TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL My guess is the GFS surface will trend to more in line with the NAM and last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: My guess is the GFS surface will trend to more in line with the NAM and last night's Euro. Is the GFS warmer at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: My guess is the GFS surface will trend to more in line with the NAM and last night's Euro. Seems to be a common theme so far this winter. NAM was pretty cold at the surface. Especially compared to the GFS. Wedge holding firm even through 0z Sun. I started off thinking the euro was too cold but it hasn't budged at all for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Seems to be a common theme so far this winter. NAM was pretty cold at the surface. Especially compared to the GFS. Wedge holding firm even through 0z Sun. I started off thinking the euro was too cold but it hasn't budged at all for the most part. Were the accumulations on the 0z Euro similar to the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Weekend rule. It's HAPPENING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: I could see just west of Baltimore doing pretty decent with this.. Maybe 2-3 snow/sleet combo. Not out of the question for points west of the city to have a nice wintry day Sunday. Maybe city too but that UHI I feel like always trips them up in these marginal setups Its good to see the 6z gfs improving mid levels. Hope trend continues because we all know with a setup like this it's about maximizing your time before the inevitable pingers... I like the look.. Big high over Montreal pushing down with flow pushing straight out of the west... We have a tendency to maximize these types of setups now and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 HAHAHAH The Chill Storm v2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, bigjohndc said: Were the accumulations on the 0z Euro similar to the 12z GFS? Euro was better. Almost all of MD was 2"+ with a 2.5-3" stripe right through the middle (northern moco, all of howard, most of frederick, and southern carroll/balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Weekend rule. It's HAPPENING! I'm traveling. It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Watch it just keep trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: HAHAHAH The Chill Storm v2 I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Question: We sometimes see the CAD trend better as we get closer. Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm traveling. It's happening. Same..leaving Friday night. Good luck yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 As much as this winter has sucked for my part of Baltimore (and for down to DC and the like), it would be kinda cool to score a small event in the middle of the extended torch that we are beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL Not making fun. Just remembering good times. I hope it's a home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM? Yes, NAM at 18z SAT is a sleet sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Question: We sometimes see the CAD trend better as we get closer. Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south? From what I can tell, the forcing for the precip is on the trailing mid level boundary and not the surface front but yes, is definitely seems the further south the 850 line presses, the further south the precip max is. It's a pretty weak wedge though even with the strong hp. The good thing is that the surface flow doesn't back southerly until after 18z Sat. Whatever cold presses in won't run away like a scared puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM? I think that gfs sounding would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I think that gfs sounding would be snow Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think that gfs sounding would be snow Yes it is, but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Question: We sometimes see the CAD trend better as we get closer. Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south? I'd say it's just the cold. Someone else might chime in here, but IMO you're talking about separate entities unless you're talking about 100 miles or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL Really? I thought you had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 CMC just fired the first warning shot. Precip axis further south and barely anything frozen in MD. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Well, soundings are forecasts too. Not improbable that they may trend colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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