Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

1/10/17 Winter Event (Snow to North/ IP/ZR South)


ChescoWx

Recommended Posts

Wxsim for NW Chesco for our next in a series of winter "events"

Flurries most of tomorrow PM with mainly light IP by 630pm with a high tomorrow at 31.4. The light IP with mix with and change to ZR pretty quickly with temps very slowly rising to freezing by 5am on Wednesday...at that time 0.43" has fallen as frozen or freezing. Then rain after that.

After this.... our next winter event is on the horizon by Saturday evening with rain transitioning to some Heavy Sleet (heck this could be our biggest snow (sleet) event so far this year)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wxsim is either going to score a huge win or fail miserably today. Chance for an afternoon flurry/snow shower....I agree. But precipitation is slow to move in tonight. Couple this with ripping Southerly winds, a sub 985slp over the Great Lakes, and return flow around HP headed to Bermuda and I can only see this being frozen for a short period. Mos data has our area above freezing at the surface by around midnight. Sleet pellets and icy patches? Yes. 0.43" frozen precipitation? Not feeling it.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

WXSIM with 6z GFS/NAM continuing to show it's cold bias in these situations with a forecast of off and on flurries all day today and then steadier IP/ZR by 630pm this evening with all frozen through 730am tomorrow morning - with 0.46" or precip falling with temps below freezing.

Agreed Ralph it will fail today!!....I even ran the forecast without the snow cover to see if that was influencing it's surface temps....but it is stubborn with the temps overnight

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Euro keeps us north folks surface at freezing until sunrise. WXSIM and cold air win?

 

I highly doubt that comes to fruition. My current temp is already up to 30. I may be mistaken, but isn't it supposed to warm gradually as the rain comes through, not wet bulb down due to the south wind?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Newman said:

I highly doubt that comes to fruition. My current temp is already up to 30. I may be mistaken, but isn't it supposed to warm gradually as the rain comes through, not wet bulb down due to the south wind?

I would think as cold as its been the last 4 days the surface probably will take longer to warm even if the temp rises to or slightly above freezing. Im sitting at 32 now with a dewpoint of 12 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

WXSIM with 6z GFS/NAM continuing to show it's cold bias in these situations with a forecast of off and on flurries all day today and then steadier IP/ZR by 630pm this evening with all frozen through 730am tomorrow morning - with 0.46" or precip falling with temps below freezing.

Agreed Ralph it will fail today!!....I even ran the forecast without the snow cover to see if that was influencing it's surface temps....but it is stubborn with the temps overnight

Wxsim was close (NOT!!)..... as expected - temps have risen above freezing now 34.3 here in NW Chesco - only 10 hours faster than it had forecasted above from this AM!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...