chubbs Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/16/2017 at 12:50 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Stock market hitting all time high, up 45% in over a year. NH is people vs SH. Really no correlation ENSO, La Nina. What do you think, is there a bubble Oct-Dec where this happening?? There was a change in gfs mid-year which warmed surface temps somewhat so can't compare current to early part of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 JMA released their 2017 surface anomalies. They put 2017 at 3rd warmest just behind 2015. Using NCEP/NCAR as a proxy, 2017 will come down as 2nd warmest on GISS. December needed to be the coldest anomaly of 2017 to finish near 2015 and it clearly wasn't on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I can see this curving exponentially now to the ^2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 20 hours ago, wolfpackmet said: JMA released their 2017 surface anomalies. They put 2017 at 3rd warmest just behind 2015. Using NCEP/NCAR as a proxy, 2017 will come down as 2nd warmest on GISS. December needed to be the coldest anomaly of 2017 to finish near 2015 and it clearly wasn't on NCEP. 2017 was 2nd warmest on several re-analysis datasets: emwcf (below), NCEP, JRA-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 JMA - 2017 #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I expect this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, chubbs said: JMA - 2017 #3 How do t On 1/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, chubbs said: JMA - 2017 #3 How do we appropriately adjust for Airport and heat island impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: How do t How do we appropriately adjust for Airport and heat island impacts? By comparing to regional mean trends. The same, well-established procedures, are used to account for station moves (airports/city stations have been moved further out), incomplete record length, and new equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 New paper has +0.5°C (global land+ocean) of warming baked in once aerosols are removed due to a shift to cleaner energy. Assuming Schurer Et Al. 2017 +1.2°C over preindustrial. You could argue we’re guaranteed +1.7°C if we magically went to 0 emissions today. That’s also assuming ECS of ~410 ppm of CO2 is +1.2°C. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076079/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Berkeley Earth report on 2017 temperatures. http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperatures-2017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases Abstract A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific (NWP). This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076500/abstract?utm_content=buffera8f8c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 The ocean isn't releasing more heat than usual. GHG forcing is increasing and heating the ocean surface more rapidly than heat energy can mix into the deep ocean. Global temperatures remain elevated despite ENSO backing off. Very misleading study that unintentionally downplays a serious situation. For example a moderate la nina is now warmer than the super el nino of 1998. Scientific reticence will destroy civilization, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:54 PM, wolfpackmet said: New paper has +0.5°C (global land+ocean) of warming baked in once aerosols are removed due to a shift to cleaner energy. Assuming Schurer Et Al. 2017 +1.2°C over preindustrial. You could argue we’re guaranteed +1.7°C if we magically went to 0 emissions today. That’s also assuming ECS of ~410 ppm of CO2 is +1.2°C. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076079/full Right, and that's on the low end -- or an ECS of 2.2, about as low as can be supported by the literature. Using the canonical 3K for fast feedbacks, it's 1.6C. Even a more conservative estimate for aerosol loading gives 0.4C, so the 2C limit that's harangued on about is more likely than not already busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 9 hours ago, csnavywx said: Right, and that's on the low end -- or an ECS of 2.2, about as low as can be supported by the literature. Using the canonical 3K for fast feedbacks, it's 1.6C. Even a more conservative estimate for aerosol loading gives 0.4C, so the 2C limit that's harangued on about is more likely than not already busted. Most people have no idea that the Paris Agreement is basically a fairy tale. Staying under +2.0°C requires negative emission technology that does not exist at scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 GISS for 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Great explanation on why Dr. Dessler is raising his climate sensitivity call from 2.7 to 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Major temperature series adjusted for natural variability: enso, solar, and volcanoes. Strong warming in 2017 after adjustment, particularly for satellites. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/2017-temperature-summary/#more-9559 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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