wolfpackmet Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Looks like October's anomaly will finish as warmest since at least May. Using Karsten's hindcast+forecast for October it could be even warmer than May. Impressive considering the current ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 9 hours ago, wolfpackmet said: Looks like October's anomaly will finish as warmest since at least May. Using Karsten's hindcast+forecast for October it could be even warmer than May. Impressive considering the current ENSO state. Where did you get that chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 hours ago, WidreMann said: Where did you get that chart? http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 RSS was 0.84 in September, 4'th warmest of any month. GISS dropped in September while UAH+RSS spiked upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 there is NO way to measure a single temperature for the globe within the hundredths of a degree being claimed the margin of error has to be plus or minus a full degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 13 hours ago, BillT said: there is NO way to measure a single temperature for the globe within the hundredths of a degree being claimed the margin of error has to be plus or minus a full degree I understand there was a recent post on WUWT that tried to make that point. Below is the reason why that is not correct. https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2017/10/averaging-and-error-propagation-random.html#comment-form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 UAH continued the recent upward trend to 0.63 in October. The current spike is unusual, other UAH spikes tend to be single months or winter/spring in el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 6 hours ago, chubbs said: UAH continued the recent upward trend to 0.63 in October. The current spike is unusual, other UAH spikes tend to be single months or winter/spring in el nino. I don't know, Solar activity is in decline (There was a cluster of warm years in declining phase of last cycle: 2002-2007) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Just stop with the solar stuff, that stuff has been thoroughly debunked. It's barely even 0.1 w/m2 minus forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 9 hours ago, chubbs said: UAH continued the recent upward trend to 0.63 in October. The current spike is unusual, other UAH spikes tend to be single months or winter/spring in el nino. I don't even understand what's going on at this point. We aren't going into an El Nino. The oceans are about the same. Arctic ice is better than last year. Yet for some reason we are having extreme warming. Did we set off a trigger of some sort? Methane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Maybe the curve is just happening exponentially? It's interesting how much the markets are up. (There probably is a correlation.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Unlike UAH, RSS was down slightly in October, but with a similar fall spike. Surface warming isn't as pronounced so would expect a trend back to pre-spike values in both uah+rss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 11:12 PM, WidreMann said: I don't even understand what's going on at this point. We aren't going into an El Nino. The oceans are about the same. Arctic ice is better than last year. Yet for some reason we are having extreme warming. Did we set off a trigger of some sort? Methane? It is stratospheric water vapor, no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 5 hours ago, chubbs said: Unlike UAH, RSS was down slightly in October, but with a similar fall spike. Surface warming isn't as pronounced so would expect a trend back to pre-spike values in both uah+rss. What was the actual RSS value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 23 hours ago, nzucker said: What was the actual RSS value? 2017 7 0.5961 2017 8 0.7150 2017 9 0.8434 2017 10 0.8020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/3/2017 at 7:44 AM, bluewave said: Not much of a surprise considering how weak the La Nina response has been so far following the super El Nino. Remember, an El Nino tried to develop last spring which bumped temps back up following the weak La Nina drop last fall and winter. This may have been the 3rd warmest October behind 2015 and 2016. October 2-meter temps were the 3rd highest globally since 1949 (2015, 2016). Top 18 warmest Octobers are the last 18 Octobers. #R1pic.twitter.com/h3a4go4Cbn 7:23 PM - 2 Nov 2017 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2017-enso-update-still-watching-la-niña Fun fact time! My blog-brother Tom has spent a lot of time studying the historical record of ENSO. He discovered that if La Niña develops this year, it will be the only La Niña on record where the Niño3.4 sea surface anomaly increased for several months, nearing the El Niño threshold, before diving into La Niña territory. Said another way, all the other 21 La Niña events followed a steady decline from warmer-than-average or followed consistently below-average sea surface temperatures. This year would follow cooler, then warmer, then cooler again sea surface conditions. Yes enso is playing a role. Perhaps a continuing recovery from the hiatus also. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/11/el-nino-and-the-record-years-1998-and-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 year ago, we were La Nina. In all El Nino cases, by 1 year later, the temperature had cooled. It was, however, a 19 month El Nino. Since 1948, 1958-1960 was 24 months, 1986-1988 was 19 months. This was the strongest of the 3 longest El Nino's. There was also unbelievable warming of North Pacific SSTs during the El Nino 18 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 RSS column water vapor spiked this fall led by the tropics. Further evidence that the current nina period is having a relatively small impact. TPW should retreat now as nina heads for a mid-winter peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 10 hours ago, chubbs said: RSS column water vapor spiked this fall led by the tropics. Further evidence that the current nina period is having a relatively small impact. TPW should retreat now as nina heads for a mid-winter peak. Could be lag effect from Nino-ish conditions in the first half of 2017? I guess we will see after a few months of this stout but weak La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 3rd warmest October on record via JMA. Going to be a close call if 2017 beats out 2015 for 2nd warmest. 2015 was just starting to torch in October- December with the major Niño in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 NCAR daily analysis has shown temps dropping a good bit in November. Maybe the October bump was solar wind related. I still think we can eke out a cooler last 3 months of the year than last year, even if only by a little. So far, most months this year have been cooler than the equivalent month in 2016. Looks like October was the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 GISS came in at +0.90° C. 2nd warmest October on record, just a hair over October 2016. NCAR/NCEP was once a great proxy with an anomaly near May 2017. Even with a down turn in the NCEP/NCAR dailies it's going to take a pretty "cool" December to not beat 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 9 hours ago, wolfpackmet said: GISS came in at +1.20° C. Third warmest October on record, just a hair under October 2015. NCAR/NCEP was once a great proxy with an anomaly just under May 2017. Even with a down turn in the NCEP/NCAR dailies it's going to take a pretty "cool" December to not beat 2015. Think you mean 0.90 for Oct. Here is a chart showing where 2017 could end up based on Jan to Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 10 hours ago, chubbs said: Think you mean 0.90 for Oct. Here is a chart showing where 2017 could end up based on Jan to Oct. Yup totally clicked on the wrong link (Met. stations only). Editing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Per ocean temperatures in the top 100m, looks the nino/end of hiatus resulted in an abrupt shift to a warmer conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 After correcting for ENSO, the first 10 months of 2017 are the warmest ever, see bottom graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 What a coincidence that 9-year global cooling could be happening from volcano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 JMA came in at 3rd warmest November on record. 2nd warmest for UAH. GISS should come in at 3rd behind 2015 & 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Warming from global warming is stronger in winter, no doubt about it. So what we see here is a residual effect of stair-stepping to a new baseline post-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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