2017 Global Temperatures

[blizzard1024]

I guess I might as well start this year's thread. Below is the latest for the CFSR from WB. Remarkably drop in the NH temperatures of 1C in one week!! Cold air over landmasses I guess does the trick here.  It probably won't last long but interesting how quickly temperatures can fall or rise from internal variability this time of year in the NH where most of the landmasses are. This is the first time I have seen a negative value for the NH in a long time. 

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[chubbs]

Yes strong cooling in NHemi continents recently. WxBell cfs is back to levels last seen in spring 2015. Looks like NHemi cold will relax next week as pattern changes. Big picture global temps are still coming off the nino spike pretty much as expected.

 

 

[Claire]

The weather climate are constantly changing and sever changes in  the climate has been noticed across the world. The cold seasons are getting more colder and colder and the summer seasons are getting more hot. Global warming is considered the cause of constant changes in the weather conditions but some people refuse to believe that the Global warming can cause changes in the weather conditions.

[FloridaJohn]

7 hours ago, Claire said:

The cold seasons are getting more colder and colder and the summer seasons are getting more hot.

That statement is half-true. The summer season is getting more hot, but the cold season is not getting colder. One indication of this is the number of new low temperature records compared to the number of high temperature records. In a steady, average climate, you would expect them to be about equal. In a cooling climate, you would expect more cold records than warm records. In a warming climate you would expect more warm records than cold records.

From here:

"What’s not obvious in the maps and figures above is how seldom U.S. towns and cities set or tied daily record lows in 2016, thanks in large part to the mild nights noted above. The preliminary total of daily record lows for the year was 5188--barely half of the total recorded in any other year since 30-year climatologies became established in the 1920s, according to independent meteorologist Guy Walton, who has compiled and tracked NOAA records data for more than a decade. Meanwhile, there were 29,729 daily record highs, a large but not unusual number for recent years. Juxtaposed, the ratio of daily highs to daily lows was around 5.7 to 1, the largest for any year in the post-1920s database, according to Walton. Overall for the 2010s (defined as 2010 - 2016), we’ve seen more than double the number of daily record highs versus lows, with the ratio of 2.1 to 1 just above the 1.9-to-1 ratio observed in the 2000s."

[donsutherland1]

18 hours ago, Claire said:

The weather climate are constantly changing and sever changes in  the climate has been noticed across the world. The cold seasons are getting more colder and colder and the summer seasons are getting more hot. Global warming is considered the cause of constant changes in the weather conditions but some people refuse to believe that the Global warming can cause changes in the weather conditions.

Claire,

I'm not sure where you got the information about "cold seasons" growing colder. The data show ongoing warming during all the seasons. That doesn't mean that there are not some cold extremes (daily readings even occasional monthly averages), but overall winters have also been growing warmer across the globe. 

[chubbs]

This is from Zeke Hausfather's twitter. Differences in 2016 are mainly due to arctic interpolation or lack thereof. NOAA+HADCRUT don't interpolate over the arctic and therefore came in too cool vs the other series.

[chubbs]

ENSO forecasts have been trending  more ninoish for 2017. Predictability is low however.

[csnavywx]

On 1/18/2017 at 5:41 AM, chubbs said:

ENSO forecasts have been trending  more ninoish for 2017. Predictability is low however.

The NMME and IMME average has been trending that way as well, with the CFSv2 being one of the lowest forecasts. However, I would want to see at least one good longer-duration WWB event before the end of March to start buying into these forecasts.

[Snow_Miser]

WeatherBell CFSv2 is up to +0.30 for January, and is approaching last month's value. Dailies have surged to +0.40, and quickly climbing, so this value may go up even more than what is currently shown. 

[chubbs]

CFS currently forecasting a warm NHemi pattern for Feb. Likely to be a warm month globally if this holds.

[chubbs]

Time to take a stab at 2017. Below is GISS for the past 50 years with a linear trendline added. The trendline estimate for 2017 is 0.81, however GISS currently remains above the trendline, averaging 0.87 since June. With nina fading and ocean temperatures warming in January, think the nina impact on temperatures has bottomed out.  So expect 2017 to be close to 2015 and the last half of 2016, somewhere around 0.87. This assumes that enso doesn't stray too far from neutral.

[Jack Frost]

General Request:

When posting graphs, charts or anything really that is not purely original material, please cite the source.  Providing a link to that source if possible would also be greatly appreciated. This would be quite helpful to those who would like to better understand context and credibility.  Thanks in advance!

Let's make the American Wx Climate Forum the best that it can be and a real resource to all. 

[Snow_Miser]

Very surprised at how little cooling has taken place with global temperature anomalies, relatively speaking. CFSv2 will finish off at around +0.41 to +0.42 for the month. Which is higher than last month's value. That would suggest an anomaly of at least +0.85 for January, which is starting the year off very warm for a neutral year. 

[chubbs]

9 hours ago, Snow_Miser said:

Very surprised at how little cooling has taken place with global temperature anomalies, relatively speaking. CFSv2 will finish off at around +0.41 to +0.42 for the month. Which is higher than last month's value. That would suggest an anomaly of at least +0.85 for January, which is starting the year off very warm for a neutral year. 

January was a month of extremes but is ending up warmer than Dec. Early modeling, is showing Feb warmer than Jan. So yes looks like we will start 2017 on the mild side.

[nflwxman]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

January was a month of extremes but is ending up warmer than Dec. Early modeling, is showing Feb warmer than Jan. So yes looks like we will start 2017 on the mild side.

If another El Nino comes around later this year, and it's of the moderate or greater variety, I would not be surprised to see 2018 break the global temperature record once again.  The baseline has clearly taken a large step up.  This is all speculative of course.

[Snow_Miser]

Starting off February with a +0.59 anomaly on the WeatherBell CFSv2 with increasing daily anomalies. 

[chubbs]

Summary of NCEP reanlysis for January from Brian Brettschneider. Temps are lower than last year but still on the warm-side. This was the highest NCEP monthly anomaly since April and higher than any month before October 2015.

[chubbs]

On 1/30/2017 at 9:25 AM, nflwxman said:

If another El Nino comes around later this year, and it's of the moderate or greater variety, I would not be surprised to see 2018 break the global temperature record once again.  The baseline has clearly taken a large step up.  This is all speculative of course.

 

New records would be in-line with the UK Met Office decadal forecast for 2017 which was released last week. This forecast is made by running the UK climate model starting with observed conditions in the fall. On chart below, blue is the new forecast, black are observations (HADCRUT), red are forecasts at a 5-year intervals by the UK model, and green are  CMIP5 forecasts made without the benefit of observations. The forecast from 5 years ago correctly had a large spike in temperature but was a couple of years early. Other recent forecasts have been cooler. As might be expected, the forecasts have warmed recently as conditions changed from relatively cool to relatively warm.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

[bluewave]

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11718

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

 

A proposed mechanism for the IPO indicates that a sustained build-up of off-equatorial ocean heat content in the western tropical Pacific for at least 15 years, due to tropical–mid-latitude interaction and ocean Rossby waves associated with the phase of the IPO, is required for an ENSO event to then trigger a transition of the IPO to its opposite phase. Initial state heat content used for the hindcasts with CCSM4 indicates that there was indeed such a build-up before the simulated IPO transition in the mid-1970s that was associated with the prediction of the 1976–77 El Niño event, with possible contributions from the 1972 to 1973 El Niño event. For the late-1990s IPO transition from positive to negative, a heat content deficit in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific was associated with the simulated 1998–2000 La Niña event. Other El Niño or La Niña events did not trigger an IPO transition, owing to the requisite time for heat content to build up in the off-equatorial western Pacific. Since the late 1990s, heat content has built up in the initial state used for the predictions, thus suggesting that even a moderate-sized El Niño event could trigger a transition to the positive phase of the IPO. Predictions initialized in 2013 show that the simulated Niño3.4 SSTs have tracked the observations with low-amplitude warming in 2014 and larger warming in 2015. Such qualitative success in Niño3.4 simulations for past IPO transitions suggests that an IPO transition probably started in 2014. Indeed, the 3- to 7-year predictions for 2015–2019 that were initialized in 2013 indicate such an IPO transition has occurred, with a resumption of accelerated rates of global warming above those in the uninitialized model simulations. If such predictions were to become operational, the next step (beyond the scope of this study) would be to provide probabilistic climate change information for various time frames in the near-term future.

 

 

[chubbs]

Here are global SST through Jan - off the nino peak but still elevated (SST anomalies are typically lowest during NHemi winter). 2017 is likely to be relatively warm unless we see more SST cooling.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Here are global SST through Jan - off the nino peak but still elevated (SST anomalies are typically lowest during NHemi winter). 2017 is likely to be relatively warm unless we see more SST cooling.

 

Second highest on record for January and warmest ever for a La Nina.

 

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Approaching the halfway point in the month, and global temperatures continue to run at a pretty surprisingly warm level. +0.51 so far for the month of February according to the WeatherBell CFSv2. Dailies have begun to increase once again as well, after dipping down to ~+0.4. 

[Jack Frost]

5 hours ago, Snow_Miser said:

Approaching the halfway point in the month, and global temperatures continue to run at a pretty surprisingly warm level. +0.51 so far for the month of February according to the WeatherBell CFSv2. Dailies have begun to increase once again as well, after dipping down to ~+0.4. 

 

Sorry if I'm being dense here, but are you referring to the 1981 - 2010 anomaly maps?

[chubbs]

JMA with second-warmest January.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jan_wld.html

[donsutherland1]

On 2/12/2017 at 8:28 PM, Jack Frost said:

 

Sorry if I'm being dense here, but are you referring to the 1981 - 2010 anomaly maps?

The CFSv2 uses a 1982-2010 baseline.

[chubbs]

GISS with 3rd warmest January - 0.92

[Snow_Miser]

WeatherBell CFSv2 update, with just under 2/3 of the month in:

+0.52, with dailies continuing to increase. That would easily place us at the 2nd warmest February in that record, with only last year beating this year's numbers. 

[chubbs]

February is the warmest month since last April on NCEP.

[chubbs]

Current SST from tropical tidbits. The Southern Hemisphere oceans are warm indicating lighter than normal winds probably due to expansive Hadley cells. A big change from conditions 3 to 4 years ago. Also notable is the strong recent nino-like warming in the eastern Pacific. This warming has occurred without the WWB that normally trigger EPac warming, instead a slackening of trades has allowed shallow surface warming. Since the warming is shallow it could be easily erased by strong trades. However if weak trades persist, the warming will extend westward with time.

[Snow_Miser]

Virtually certain now that the WeatherBell CFSv2 will finish with an anomaly of +0.52 for February. This would make it the second warmest February ever in the NCEP record, second only to last year.