Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: Anyone know what the 00z Euro showed? Not out far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 New Euro really cut ice amounts for the northern half of IL, and a huge chunk of eastern Iowa. Basically only far southern IA, and the western half of IA get 0.25"+ freezing rain. Central IL still gets about 1/4", with a small area of 0.50" over towards Quincy. Much of the northern half of IL gets <0.1" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Roads are going to be a disaster if we end up on the higher end of those totals. The 12/18 event we only got 0.07" FRZA and roads were a nightmare could only imagine tripling that amount or more. My stomach is in a knot just thinking about my drive to work Friday night. ILX posted an updated graphic with 0.25-0.50" possible. Looks like a weekend of being stuck at home. You literally can't do nothing on ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looks like most offices are riding I70 through OH. Surface pressure heights are lagging a bit behind model progs. Sat loops seem to be trending a little north with the flow out of the SW. Gonna be a nail biter for some come tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Seems like the trend for Cincy area is that this will not be a big deal. Temps may struggle to actually dip below freezing and amounts of precip are in question (Euro has almost nothing). I would agree keeping the frz rain advisory though as any light showers could cause some slick spots but this is looking like a far cry from what it seemed 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Seems like the trend for Cincy area is that this will not be a big deal. Temps may struggle to actually dip below freezing and amounts of precip are in question (Euro has almost nothing). I would agree keeping the frz rain advisory though as any light showers could cause some slick spots but this is looking like a far cry from what it seemed 2-3 days ago. That's pretty much the norm isn't it? Social media hype no longer existent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, fyrfyter said: That's pretty much the norm isn't it? Social media hype no longer existent! Oh yeah...I'm sure the one HRRR run that blasts us at some point today will get re-tweeted LOL Obviously the situation bears watching for last minute changes, but I am not super worried at this point. Don't know if you saw but ILN referenced the road METRO model which actually is predicting road surfaces to stay above freezing the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The 12z GFS has really sharpened the northern stream energy that digs southeastward as the southern energy lifts northeastward. The end result is a southeast jump and a stronger, more wrapped up low over the lakes that dumps heavy snow from se MN into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Oh yeah...I'm sure the one HRRR run that blasts us at some point today will get re-tweeted LOL Obviously the situation bears watching for last minute changes, but I am not super worried at this point. Don't know if you saw but ILN referenced the road METRO model which actually is predicting road surfaces to stay above freezing the whole time.The METRO model is crap. Same mode they relied heavily on for previous snow events, and didn't issue advisories for and surprise surprise, it was wrong when the snow stuck to area roads and road conditions weren't good.Until there is some record of that model and decent performance, I give it a 1% chance of being correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looking weak and dry for freezing rain on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z Canadian puts us in a solid 1/3 to 1/2 inch of ice accumulation central IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro really cut ice amounts for the northern half of IL, and a huge chunk of eastern Iowa. Basically only far southern IA, and the western half of IA get 0.25"+ freezing rain. Central IL still gets about 1/4", with a small area of 0.50" over towards Quincy. Much of the northern half of IL gets <0.1" of ZR. One thing I'm noticing in the drier zone you referenced is that the models are having trouble saturating later Sun into early Mon, especially under 850 mb. Main LLJ axis also remains farther west at that time, which could explain the bearish precip output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Sorry wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 Anyone here from south of St. Louis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looks like there's a chance temps don't get below freezing south of I-70 when the chance for freezing rain would fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Appears to be nothing more than freezing mist for CMH now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Power outages already being reported in Jackson, Williamson, and Union counties in Southern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 And I have seen on St. Louis media that I-55 has been closed in sections se of St. Louis. From discussions I have read elsewhere some models seemed to have overdone precip with the first round from this storm, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18z GFS now wants to clobber central Illinois with 0.50-0-75 of ice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Chambana said: 18z GFS now wants to clobber central Illinois with 0.50-0-75 of ice lol. The only thing worse than the snow maps is probably the ice maps lol. Just dependent on so many factors, and this setup is particularly problematic given oscillating temps above/below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The only thing worse than the snow maps is probably the ice maps lol. Just dependent on so many factors, and this setup is particularly problematic given oscillating temps above/below freezing. Oh I know the general public doesn't realize that's TOTAL, all of this will not be accreted at once, as we bounce from 30-34 degrees. Which will keep power outages at bay. We were forecasted 32 degrees today, only reached 30 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 hours ago, fyrfyter said: The METRO model is crap. Same mode they relied heavily on for previous snow events, and didn't issue advisories for and surprise surprise, it was wrong when the snow stuck to area roads and road conditions weren't good. Until there is some record of that model and decent performance, I give it a 1% chance of being correct! Maybe so, but roads temps are mostly in the 40s as of an hour or two ago and I doubt temps in the mid 30s are changing that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, wxdudemike said: Maybe so, but roads temps are mostly in the 40s as of an hour or two ago and I doubt temps in the mid 30s are changing that quickly. I've never even heard of the "METRO" model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 So far nothing--not even mist--in the immediate Springfield area thus far (there were some radar returns around 6 of some frozen precip between Chatham and Auburn). Enough to prompt me to stay home from a meeting I normally attend in Chatham after work each Friday and stay home instead (near the State Capitol Complex in Springfield). Not much showing up on the radar at this time--so maybe we're either in the calm before the storm or at least tonight's going to be a non-event locally. Go 45 miles or so south of me (Litchfield) and that's another story--that's about the northern edge of the ice deluge in the St. Louis metro/I-70 corridor most of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 0z 4k NAM and 3k NAM gives me almost NOTHING rofl. Western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Natester said: 0z 4k NAM and 3k NAM gives me almost NOTHING rofl. Western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, not so much. As mentioned earlier, models are suggesting saturation issues. There's a pretty nice looking precip shield to the south on Sunday that gets eaten alive by low level dry air as it comes north (especially IL east). Sometimes saturation occurs quicker than the models suggest and sometimes not, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Yeah not expecting much in the way of ZR here. Maybe a brief period, but will be very light. Very slight glaze followed by hopefully a good half inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 10 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said: I've never even heard of the "METRO" model I think it is an in-house thing. Just some guidance on pavement temperature response to atmospheric conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Got a light coating overnight. Another round frz looks to come through around 9-10am. See what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Lincoln, Il NWS has watches issued with only 40-50% pops in place during time time of watch. I guess overhyped event with little impact call by Chi-storm is going to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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