Chambana Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: Was kind of surprised to see the eastern extent of that watch. Central IL, IN and OH are all in about the same boat with forecasted temps and qpf. Southwest into MO, different story and it looks like more precip so I can see the watch going up in that area. Unless models start upping precip amounts, I would bet freezing rain or wwa's will be the final headline call for most of central IL thru OH. When this threat first started to show up several days ago on the models, I thought at that time the big question would be where the boundary sets up. In actuality it looks like the big question is how much or how little precip is going to run the boundary. Remember all those models showing a fire hose right along the boundary with inches of qpf? Now it's tenths of an inch instead. Sounds like they're siding with the Euro. Has more colder air in place, and significantly more ice over a broader area. GFS has very little ice over Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 If you follow RyanMaue on twitter he just posted a graphic from the Euro showing the freezing rain totals. KC gets absolutely destroyed, Chiefs Vs Steelers playoff bout should be fun. Also shows a decent amount of Ice 0.25"-0.50" for central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 heh, and right on cue the 12z nam significantly ups the qpf across central, southern IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: heh, and right on cue the 12z nam significantly ups the qpf across central, southern IN/OH Huge (yuuuge?) jump in QPF, near identical to the GFS. Keeps Saturday barely above freezing as well, unlike the moderate warmup some of the other models hinted at. CMC, as always, is a bit excessive with the ice. I'd expect ILN to go with a FZA initially. Unless QPF keeps increasing, hard to see widespread ICW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Nam to me seems to be warming too fast esp given the strength of that high. Its simulated precip type fields are wonky. It is showing rain as the precip type in areas where it should be frz rain. It also pushes that first wave too north which doesn't make sense with the high where it is. And overall its expanse of precip seems rather anemic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 NAM looks like the high shifted slightly North, hence the changes. According to the NAM, we don't get any ice. Another case of a few mile change makes all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 One bad thing about ice events....forecasting is a nightmare. The smallest changes can mean the difference between crippling ice or cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 One bad thing about ice events....forecasting is a nightmare. The smallest changes can mean the difference between crippling ice or cold rainYes. Been watching that for days. I'm tired of living on the battleground of cold vs warm air every single storm during the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Have to see if this continues over the weekend but in general, the 12z model progs valid at 18z were not far enough south with the 32F line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Have to see if this continues over the weekend but in general, the 12z model progs valid at 18z were not far enough south with the 32F line. Wow, the same sentiments echoed through two separate weather forums. Now you know something is up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I've went from 61 to 43 in last hour. Had a boat load of rain and a little thunder as the front moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Euro seems a little quicker than other models to spread precip northeast on Sunday. From Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Sunday evening/Monday morning could get a little interesting around here, especially if the warm up is delayed just a bit. Not likely to melt this morning's ice off the trees/powerlines tomorrow and Saturday, especially with plenty of clouds expected. Sunday is the more questionable day as to whether it gets above freezing during the afternoon. If it doesn't, then will have a head start. Plus, Sunday/early Monday precip rates don't look that heavy at this point so it should be able to accrete pretty well until temps warm sufficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 IMO euro has been the most consistent model with this. And I'm favoring it with the cooler temp profiles that make more sense with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 DVN issued a watch south of I-80 but mentioned it may have to be expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: DVN issued a watch south of I-80 but mentioned it may have to be expanded. I saw that. Sounds like this might be a repeat of December 11, 2007 for parts of Iowa, although I highly doubt I'll get a half inch of ice like I did on that day. Never lost power from that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 DSM has launched WSW the southern and central counties. Ball-parking up to an inch of snow, and .10-.25in of ice. Obviously I'm hoping for something to change to result in a more snow less ice situation along I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 One thing to keep in mind in northern IL/IN etc is that the timing of this is such that a good chunk of precip comes in at a time when there won't be much diurnal assistance to raise temps above freezing (Sun evening/Mon morning). It's going to be all or mostly WAA driven temperature rise then. Speaking of which, there's plenty of WAA but the lack of a stronger surface low means that sfc winds aren't raging out of the S or SE, so the temperature rise to get comfortably above freezing may be a laborious process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I think the issuance of a winter weather advisory by IND at this point reflects their uncertainty at this time this far east. Wait and see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Well once again we are closing in on a winter event in the Ohio area and have poor model agreement...Guess we should be used to that by now....Kinda leaning towards the drier Euro at this point. I would not go full boar on the non-event it depicts here but I think the NAM/GFS could be too wet. Interesting to note that the SREF plumes are also lower coming in around ~0.10" of QPF for frz rain at CVG. I think that is a good compromise actually for the time being. Will take that over 1/2"+ any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Here are the 12z Iowa State Meteograms for the Findlay and Toledo areas detailing potential amounts of freezing rain accretion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for their entire County Warning Area. The advisory is in effect from 7:00 AM EST tomorrow through 1:00 PM EST Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for their entire County Warning Area. The advisory is in effect from 7:00 AM EST tomorrow through 1:00 PM EST Sunday. Quite a detailed evening afd from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Seems like this Winter season so far has been more defined by the icy precipitation (freezing rain and sleet) more than snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 First look at the always reliable 84 hr NAM out to Monday morning. This is colder than the GFS and more like what the previous runs of the Euro have been advertising with the freezing line. Notice the fairly wide area that the model has teetering at 32-33 degrees. Sharp temperature gradients are always a challenge to deal with but something like this would be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: First look at the always reliable 84 hr NAM out to Monday morning. This is colder than the GFS and more like what the previous runs of the Euro have been advertising with the freezing line. Notice the fairly wide area that the model has teetering at 32-33 degrees. Sharp temperature gradients are always a challenge to deal with but something like this would be as well. Yeah, it'd have the P-type start as heavy snow for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 0z CMC says repeat of December 11, 2007, with 12 hours of nonstop freezing rain, just like on 12/11/2007. Of course, all the ice accumulation is going to melt when temps warm above freezing but it could cause some power problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Anyone know what the 00z Euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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