January 13-17 Winter Storm

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This solution actually ends up being worse from an ice perspective.  More prolonged...

It is similar in amount of ice like the Gem for places like OKC, Wichita, KC and higher for places like STL and the I-70 corridor into Ohio. If this were to even be close to verification it would be one of the worst ice storms of all time for the country both in scope and in some places magnitude. I mean it is showing absurd numbers for many locations well north of 1.5" all ice. I hate to drop hyperbole but this could be an incredible event.

[OHweather]

9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Can you give some ideas of numbers?

Eyeballing, at least 2" of freezing rain from central OK into central MO and at least 1" of freezing rain from central IL into portions of northern IN and OH.  Verbatim there's probably over 1.50" of ZR in parts of central IL.  The zone of heavy ice is probably less than 100 miles wide in IN and OH as there's a sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the precip and as temps try to rise above freezing south of I-70 during the heaviest precip.  The ice zone would be wider from IL into MO and OK.

I have mixed feelings for this locally.  Warm air always tries to sneak up the western side of the Apps into OH, but the strong surface high to the north will try to counteract that.  The heaviest QPF will be farther west as well.  I've never experienced more than about a quarter inch of liquid falling as freezing rain...part of me wants to see it but I'm sure everyone who has experienced it will remind me that big ice storms are "bad."

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It is similar in amount of ice like the Gem for places like OKC, Wichita, KC and higher for places like STL and the I-70 corridor into Ohio. If this were to even be close to verification it would be one of the worst ice storms of all time for the country both in scope and in some places magnitude. I mean it is showing absurd numbers for many locations well north of 1.5" all ice. I hate to drop hyperbole but this could be an incredible event.

Yeah, it's bad.  Hard to imagine the kind of widespread damage that would occur to the power grid in this outcome.  Maybe not unlike the instances we've seen of hurricanes bringing damaging winds well inland, but the longitudinal area covered by this is so much greater.

Now with that drama being said (lol), there's still plenty of time to back off to a lesser result.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, it's bad.  Hard to imagine the kind of widespread damage that would occur to the power grid in this outcome.  Maybe not unlike the instances we've seen of hurricanes bringing damaging winds well inland, but the longitudinal area covered by this is so much greater.

Now with that drama being said (lol), there's still plenty of time to back off to a lesser result.

My concern is once you get into the 2-3" range you start losing power poles and having major infrastructure issues. Think Montreal 1998 ice storm, that is the pinnacle for ice storms and some places there were in the 3-4" range, some places were without power for a month.

That event like this one, occurred in early to mid January and was a prolonged event as well. Interestingly enough there are some similarities to the event except that event had the upper low/trough axis more centered over Eastern Texas and into the Southeast versus New Mexico and Western Texas.

[chuckster2012]

Never thought I'd be hoping for a cold rain but that's what I'm doing down here in southern Indiana.. ☔. I hate ice!

[Chambana]

I'm trying to remember the last true ice storm to strike my area, the last one that comes to mind is the Valentine's Day ice storm of 1990. Wasn't there an event in December of 06? I don't remember getting ice though.

 

Models have been showing this significant amount of ice since Thursday, obviously I don't think the area will be quite as expansive, but come Wednesday if the 1" of ice is still being shown, I'll be making a trip to Home Depot for a generator 

[Sidewinder]

Much of us had the late evening glazing event on 12-16-16. That caused over 500 accidents in Indy alone with a few fatals.
The last big long duration icing event I can remember was 1-31-2011. At the time it was predicted some areas could be without power for weeks after it was over and if I recall some parts of north central IN were. 

https://www.weather.gov/ind/feb012011storm

With all this rain forecast to roll in and soften the soil around trees caked with ice, it sure won't help.

[fyrfyter]

Definitely watching this in the OV. I can't say I ever remember any ice storm where we got more than 1/4" of ice.

I expect the model changes back and forth to continue for a couple of more days. The way this winter has gone this far, it's hard to get a lock on things, more than a day or 2 out at best. We keep having these huge swings from very warm to very cold.

[buckeye]

25 minutes ago, fyrfyter said:

Definitely watching this in the OV. I can't say I ever remember any ice storm where we got more than 1/4" of ice.

I expect the model changes back and forth to continue for a couple of more days. The way this winter has gone this far, it's hard to get a lock on things, more than a day or 2 out at best. We keep having these huge swings from very warm to very cold.

 

Welcome fyrefyter!   Great to have another poster from the southeastern flanks of the subforum.    

I think the last severe ice storm that I recall in Central Ohio was Dec.04.   Of course that was also a full fledge snowstorm and the cold blasted in afterwards.  There was only about a 15 mile wide swath of area sw to ne that was effected by true ice storm conditions, but it came with all the usual wires and trees down and many without power for a week or more.

There was another epic ice storm in the Ohio river valley with PDII in February of '03.  Central Ohio got blasted with 15" of snow but folks along the river had a catastrophic ice storm that got little attention because all the news focused on the big cities on the eastcoast getting pummeled with snow.

GHD Chicago blizzard was suppose to be a big ice storm for us but between the rain being really heavy and temps warming up relatively quickly, it never met the degree of hype it was suppose to achieve.

Thankfully for us, some of the trends I've noticed on the models is to focus the bigger ice threat further sw in MO and IL.  That high pressure looks to be a bit weaker than some of the original forecasts and it also appears to be moving quicker east, (which makes sense with no blocking).   Hopefully we all get spared.   I'd hate to ruin a perfectly good torch week coming up the following week by not having power. 

[fyrfyter]

 

Welcome fyrefyter!   Great to have another poster from the southeastern flanks of the subforum.    

I think the last severe ice storm that I recall in Central Ohio was Dec.04.   Of course that was also a full fledge snowstorm and the cold blasted in afterwards.  There was only about a 15 mile wide swath of area sw to ne that was effected by true ice storm conditions, but it came with all the usual wires and trees down and many without power for a week or more.

There was another epic ice storm in the Ohio river valley with PDII in February of '03.  Central Ohio got blasted with 15" of snow but folks along the river had a catastrophic ice storm that got little attention because all the news focused on the big cities on the eastcoast getting pummeled with snow.

GHD Chicago blizzard was suppose to be a big ice storm for us but between the rain being really heavy and temps warming up relatively quickly, it never met the degree of hype it was suppose to achieve.

Thankfully for us, some of the trends I've noticed on the models is to focus the bigger ice threat further sw in MO and IL.  That high pressure looks to be a bit weaker than some of the original forecasts and it also appears to be moving quicker east, (which makes sense with no blocking).   Hopefully we all get spared.   I'd hate to ruin a perfectly good torch week coming up the following week by not having power. 

Thanks for the welcome.

I remember 2003, but it was way worse in Southern Ohio. There wasn't a lot going on around here. (I live in the Cincinnati area).

We usually have ptype issues with winter. We spend a lot of time dealing with too much WAA, where we either get WTOD (warm tongue of death, where we end up with a cold rain), or dry slotted. It happens all the time. It's few and far between where a perfect setup occurs and we get a good dumping of snow.

You can go South to Louisville & Lexington or go North to Dayton or Columbus & be fine, but rarely are things smooth & easy around here.

[UMB WX]

ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZ

 

Alex

[buckeye]

19 minutes ago, fyrfyter said:

 

Thanks for the welcome.

I remember 2003, but it was way worse in Southern Ohio. There wasn't a lot going on around here. (I live in the Cincinnati area).

We usually have ptype issues with winter. We spend a lot of time dealing with too much WAA, where we either get WTOD (warm tongue of death, where we end up with a cold rain), or dry slotted. It happens all the time. It's few and far between where a perfect setup occurs and we get a good dumping of snow.

You can go South to Louisville & Lexington or go North to Dayton or Columbus & be fine, but rarely are things smooth & easy around here.

 

Don't feel bad, we here in CMH have been sharing in the misery.  If it wasn't for the 'surprise' wave we had back in December that gave us 3-6", we'd be sitting below 2" on the seaon to date.   Looking at the long term, it looks like we may very well usher in February with single digit snowfall totals to date.

sorry, this should probably be in banter.

So to stay on topic, I feel good that we'll start seeing trends towards a hostile ice storm set up.   Slower ejection of energy in the sw....  Weaker HP .... Faster exit of HP to the east.

[csnavywx]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Don't feel bad, we here in CMH have been sharing in the misery.  If it wasn't for the 'surprise' wave we had back in December that gave us 3-6", we'd be sitting below 2" on the seaon to date.   Looking at the long term, it looks like we may very well usher in February with single digit snowfall totals to date.

sorry, this should probably be in banter.

So to stay on topic, I feel good that we'll start seeing trends towards a hostile ice storm set up.   Slower ejection of energy in the sw....  Weaker HP .... Faster exit of HP to the east.

The Euro has the quickest exit of that HP, but still gives a pretty hefty thump of ice out your way. Part of the reason is that a significant surface ridge extension remains behind and keeps NE'ly winds with cold/dry air pouring in. Eventually WAA wins the battle, but not before significant accretion. Dews with the initial push of arctic air are bone dry as well, so evap cooling may actually cause most areas to start and stay sleet for a while.

[harrisale]

With so much moisture coming in from the Gulf, I'm wondering if such heavy precipitation rates will somewhat limit accretion. Obviously the signal for a significant ice event is there, but I suspect a fair amount of runoff will occur also. 

The Quebec 1998 ice storm had 3" of precipitation over a 4 day period, and the slower rates allowed ice to build up to catastrophic levels. Then again, the 2 day period advertised on the models for this storm is still pretty lengthy. 

[cyclone77]

These model solutions have been fun to watch come in.  GFS a far distance away from the way it looked a few days ago.  Now vaults the surface low into the western lakes by Monday, with mainly a rain event for areas pretty far to the north.  Gotta love it.  I'd take a rainer over cold/suppressed garbage though.  

[Chicago Storm]

Most likely will be an over-hyped non-event for most.

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, harrisale said:

With so much moisture coming in from the Gulf, I'm wondering if such heavy precipitation rates will somewhat limit accretion. Obviously the signal for a significant ice event is there, but I suspect a fair amount of runoff will occur also. 

The Quebec 1998 ice storm had 3" of precipitation over a 4 day period, and the slower rates allowed ice to build up to catastrophic levels. Then again, the 2 day period advertised on the models for this storm is still pretty lengthy. 

Temps will matter where precip gets heavy. Big difference between 31-32 degrees and 28 degrees.

[Radtechwxman]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Most likely will be an over-hyped non-event for most.

What makes you say that? I know it is still days away but there is a decent likelihood of a wide swath of significant ice with a narrower band of potential historic icing. I agree people in the northern portion of this forum possibly including me could miss out but the southern portion is looking ominous. The position of this arctic high and arctic front will be critical. If that high gets east too fast ahead of the developing storm then a lot of us could see mostly rain

[buckeye]

38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Most likely will be an over-hyped non-event for most.

I agree and the 12z gfs and ggem have trended that way.   In fact both models have virtually no frozen precip, (much less an ice storm threat). for us, (CMH), throughout their runs.

In fact the gfs has no frozen precip for us through hr 384, which is the first time Ive seen that on a gfs model run since late October or early Nov.

[Hoosier]

Will be curious to see what the NAM looks like when it gets closer.  Theoretically it should handle the boundary/thermal profiles as well or better than the globals.

[wxdudemike]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

 

Welcome fyrefyter!   Great to have another poster from the southeastern flanks of the subforum.    

I think the last severe ice storm that I recall in Central Ohio was Dec.04.   Of course that was also a full fledge snowstorm and the cold blasted in afterwards.  There was only about a 15 mile wide swath of area sw to ne that was effected by true ice storm conditions, but it came with all the usual wires and trees down and many without power for a week or more.

There was another epic ice storm in the Ohio river valley with PDII in February of '03.  Central Ohio got blasted with 15" of snow but folks along the river had a catastrophic ice storm that got little attention because all the news focused on the big cities on the eastcoast getting pummeled with snow.

GHD Chicago blizzard was suppose to be a big ice storm for us but between the rain being really heavy and temps warming up relatively quickly, it never met the degree of hype it was suppose to achieve.

Thankfully for us, some of the trends I've noticed on the models is to focus the bigger ice threat further sw in MO and IL.  That high pressure looks to be a bit weaker than some of the original forecasts and it also appears to be moving quicker east, (which makes sense with no blocking).   Hopefully we all get spared.   I'd hate to ruin a perfectly good torch week coming up the following week by not having power. 

 

10 hours ago, OHweather said:

 

I have mixed feelings for this locally.  Warm air always tries to sneak up the western side of the Apps into OH, but the strong surface high to the north will try to counteract that.  The heaviest QPF will be farther west as well.  I've never experienced more than about a quarter inch of liquid falling as freezing rain...part of me wants to see it but I'm sure everyone who has experienced it will remind me that big ice storms are "bad."

In 2007 we had 0.75 to 0.80" of ice in Cincinnati and that was awful.  Relatively widespread tree damage (although not as bad as some I've seen pics of out in OK/MO before).  Honestly, if I never saw it again, I would not be upset.  Hearing trees crack around you continuously and wondering if you'll keep power at 10-20 degrees is no fun.  Then you throw in some wind and amplifies everything! lol  We also had about 0.50" in 2009 as part of a snow/ice sandwich.  Definitely glad that right now it appears the heaviest precip will fall as liquid down here in Cincy with only brief ZR.

[fyrfyter]

2007 was no big deal. Even at height of storm, only 50k lost power.

The remnants of Ike in 2008 destroyed the remaining weak trees. There were people without power for a week+.

2009 was not an issue, because of 2008.

We have not seen a truly bad ice storm in a long time.

The last event, took a NAM/Euro blend for final track and outcome.

The GFS just seems out to lunch, like normal.

[Baum]

I'm looking forward to an overhyped non event. Of course now that it's out there as "overhyped" it sort of tempers my enthusiasm.

[Hoosier]

Fluctuations in timing/evolution aside, another pretty big run overall on the 12z Euro.

Big ice is uncommon/rare for a reason.  All that can be said at this point is that there's a much greater than normal chance of an ice storm impacting the region.  I sort of look at it in a similar way to the SPC probabilistic forecasts for severe weather.

[bl5585]

Out of curiosity how far north is the major ice getting on the Euro?

[Thundersnow12]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fluctuations in timing/evolution aside, another pretty big run overall on the 12z Euro.

Big ice is uncommon/rare for a reason.  All that can be said at this point is that there's a much greater than normal chance of an ice storm impacting the region.  I sort of look at it in a similar way to the SPC probabilistic forecasts for severe weather.

Still ejecting the srn stream upper level low even though it kind of shears out some by Saturday.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems that way, doesn't it?  I was thinking that myself but I'm not sure if there's actually any data to back it up or if it's selective memory.

I guess I'll ask this question here.  Does anyone know anything about a big ice storm in the Midwest a long time ago... maybe back in the 1920s or 1930s?  I've tried searching and haven't found what I'm looking for.  I've read about this storm before but I just can't recall an exact date, and I don't think it was the December 1924 ice storm.

EDIT:  nevermind, just found it!  It was January 1930.

Much more recently, Easter weekend 1978 (Mar. 24-26, 1978) was the granddaddy of all ice storms here in central Illinois (and likely parts of Indiana), especially along what's now the I-72 corridor.  IIRC continuous freezing rain/ice in Springfield for 3 days, and two TV transmitting antennas toppled in the same storm (one for a then-silent station on channel 14 west of Jacksonville; the other the transmitter of WAND-17 northeast of Decatur).

 

http://visuals.sj-r.com/picturing-the-past/2015/3/20/frozen-the-easter-weekend-ice-storm-of-1978

Full story (with photos and reminiscences): http://visuals.sj-r.com/frozen-the-easter-weekend-ice-storm-of-1978

Short Youtube video of storm damage in Springfield:

 

[Thundersnow12]

Hoosier can you sum up ice accumulations from EuroWx? 

[nokywx]

1 hour ago, wxdudemike said:

 

In 2007 we had 0.75 to 0.80" of ice in Cincinnati and that was awful.  Relatively widespread tree damage (although not as bad as some I've seen pics of out in OK/MO before).  Honestly, if I never saw it again, I would not be upset.  Hearing trees crack around you continuously and wondering if you'll keep power at 10-20 degrees is no fun.  Then you throw in some wind and amplifies everything! lol  We also had about 0.50" in 2009 as part of a snow/ice sandwich.  Definitely glad that right now it appears the heaviest precip will fall as liquid down here in Cincy with only brief ZR.

Yeah...Feb. 07 ice storm...was predicted to be a nice 33-35 degree rain, and Temps just never climbed up there.  Along with Hurricane Ike, it's the most disruptive weather event in the 10 years I've lived down here.

Really could be much more of a heavy rain threat, as opposed to wintry, in this neck of the woods.

[Chambana]

5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Hoosier can you sum up ice accumulations from EuroWx? 

Euro still nailing the same corridor it has since Friday. Looks nasty for Is Illinois folks. Central Missouri, central Illinois, and north central Indiana