Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:12 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Hoosier can you sum up ice accumulations from EuroWx? Expand 1" plus from parts of central IN wsw. 2"+ as you get into Missouri and west. Area near/north of I-70 in IL/IN gets the worst in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:19 PM, Hoosier said: 1" plus from parts of central IN wsw. 2"+ as you get into Missouri and west. Area near/north of I-70 in IL/IN gets the worst in this region.Just curious, how much north of I-80 in IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:30 PM, RCNYILWX said: Just curious, how much north of I-80 in IL? Expand There's a band of .5-1" in parts of N IL, but that includes Wed night/Thursday, which is getting more interesting in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Ryan Maue of Weatherbell posted these 12z Euro maps on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:36 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Ryan Maue posted these 12z Euro maps on twitter. Expand On the plus side the wind won't be much of a factor. EURO has us just about a quarter inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I made a long animated gif of the Euro p types but didn't want to upset Hoosier by posting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:43 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I made a long animated gif of the Euro p types but didn't want to upset Hoosier by posting that Expand Let me guess, against the rules as it would violate licensing agreement? EDIT: A standard license at http://www.ecmwf.int/ costs almost $15,000 per year! That's $1233 per month! No wonder why it's so expensive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Didn't look at other areas as much, but the 12z Euro showed 1"+ precip from southeast IA through the QC into northwest IL. Looked to be all, or mostly freezing rain based on 925mb temps, and surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Need NAM to become available, to nail down specifics. Should come in range tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 IWX already mentioning potential ice storm in the afd. Very unusual for a NWS office to use those words this far out. Hard enough to get a token freezing rain mention at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 7:44 PM, Natester said: Let me guess, against the rules as it would violate licensing agreement? EDIT: A standard license at http://www.ecmwf.int/ costs almost $15,000 per year! That's $1233 per month! No wonder why it's so expensive... Expand I know Maue at WX Bell has said that value added maps are somewhat exempt and can be posted. He said that on Twitter when directly asked last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 8:18 PM, KokomoWX said: I know Maue at WX Bell has said that value added maps are somewhat exempt and can be posted. He said that on Twitter when directly asked last week. Expand Thing is, what does value added mean? Have heard that before but no clear explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 8:26 PM, Hoosier said: Thing is, what does value added mean? Have heard that before but no clear explanation. Expand I have taken it to mean extra products they derive from the model such as ice maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/9/2017 at 8:26 PM, Hoosier said: Thing is, what does value added mean? Have heard that before but no clear explanation. Expand It could be in terms of marketing. As more people get a taste of what his maps are like, that's potentially more people willing to sign up for a subscription. Strange word to use though in that context. When I hear "value-added," I think profit-generating or productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just something I was thinking about regarding GFS. A nw trend with the surface low later in the weekend has been noted. But looking at where the boundary/sharp baroclinic zone are, wouldn't it make more sense for this to track further east before cutting? Also the high at that time is in the Northeast. Idk if I'm making any sense. Maybe I'm partially wishcasting. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 This sort of gives some perspective about what may be coming. This is annual average number of hours with freezing rain... as in an entire year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 1:56 AM, Hoosier said: This sort of gives some perspective about what may be coming. This is annual average number of hours with freezing rain... as in an entire year. Expand Some places could easily get pretty close to or exceed that with just this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 For areas farther north that are likely to miss out on most of the Fri/Sat action, the real question is how fast the shallow cold airmass modifies as the upper low begins to eject toward the region on Sun/Mon. Retreating high pressure and lack of significant snowcover over areas around the southern Lakes and southward doesn't help. Looking at the model output for Sun/Mon, I notice that it tries to raise temps above freezing in areas even while low level easterly/northeasterly flow is ongoing. Sometimes I question whether the models are a little too quick to warm the surface above freezing with easterly/northeasterly low level flow, but it can happen, especially if the warm wedge aloft gets so deep and warm. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It's definitely going to be a nowcast event. Asking the models to pinpoint significant icing more than 24 hours out is like answering a woman when she ask's if her jeans make her look fat. The general idea is there, but still even this far out, the specific answer could mean the difference between a terse eye or light's out for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 00Z Euro much more reluctant to eject the SW low and only real winter precip on this run is a result of the lead wave. Generally follows the evolution of the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Boy this system is deflating fast as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 7:51 AM, Stebo said: Boy this system is deflating fast as hell. Expand A lot of time to trend back the other way. Model handling of upper lows ejecting out of the southwest isn't always stellar, but that makes you wonder if an even slower ejection occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 8:29 AM, Hoosier said: A lot of time to trend back the other way. Model handling of upper lows ejecting out of the southwest isn't always stellar, but that makes you wonder if an even slower ejection occurs. Expand Yeah my concern is the cold source moves right along now, which in of itself is surprising considering the magnitude of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 DOA....next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 6:23 AM, Jackstraw said: It's definitely going to be a nowcast event. Asking the models to pinpoint significant icing more than 24 hours out is like answering a woman when she ask's if her jeans make her look fat. The general idea is there, but still even this far out, the specific answer could mean the difference between a terse eye or light's out for a few days Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 7:51 AM, Stebo said: Boy this system is deflating fast as hell. Expand /\ Perfect subtitle for the winter of '16-'17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 If you'd look up snail in the dictionary, you might find a map of the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 If the system isn't going to bring snow... deflating is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 System still hasn't cleared the area by next Thursday on this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Looks like NW Ohio is spared another winter storm this season. Bring on the rain... Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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