So What Did We Learn Here?

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

I've learned that while some posters are pessimistic about snow because it gets a rise out of some of the more..enthusiastic posters, most are because they've been through this same song and dance before. Unfortunately for snow lovers in some locales, they are right more often than wrong.

I'll try not to forget this when the next threat comes, but I probably will. I always get sucked back in! 

[Cold Rain]

On 1/7/2017 at 4:02 PM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I've learned that while some posters are pessimistic about snow because it gets a rise out of some of the more..enthusiastic posters, most are because they've been through this same song and dance before. Unfortunately for snow lovers in some locales, they are right more often than wrong.

I'll try not to forget this when the next threat comes, but I probably will. I always get sucked back in! 

The weather can surprise us, and it often does.  Unfortunately, it usually surprises to the downside around here.  It takes so many things to go right in order to get a snowstorm here, and we've become too accustomed to relying on models to tell us what to think.

I used to hear Fishel and other TV mets, for example, say things like "the models are showing this, but I'm not buying it because (whatever the reason was)."  Not much anymore.  Now the forecast is just a blend of various models and ensemble data.

I know the models are better than they used to be and they're really the primary tool for making a forecast.  But the reality is, there's a booby trap in virtually every digital snowstorm and usually more than one.  We really don't give them the proper weight they deserve.

It takes everything to go right to create a snowstorm here.  If one thing is off, it ruins the forecast...and usually by a lot.  And that potential degree to which it will ruin the forecast is usually not factored in as much as it should be.  If a forecast is for 6" of snow here, and the rule of thumb  was to cut it in half, that would turn out to be more accurate, I would bet, in 75% or more of the cases.  Just that one rule.  You don't even need to look at anything else.  Take your forecast and cut the amount by 40-50% and that would be closer to the truth in most cases.  It is just the way it works here.

[NCSNOW]

On 1/7/2017 at 9:06 AM, franklin NCwx said:

The gfs continues to be a better model for our region.

I assume your talking sw mtns. Cause it got smoked Atlanta and Raleigh. Had sfc low going through central Florida and had wnc mtns virtually missing out till  day or 2 out. Gfs was last to the party. Euro wasn't as bad ,but that being said it was it's worse performance in a long time.

Ukie was stellar from 9 days out. Kudos to the nam inside 48 and that german model.

Thankfully forecast worked out great for triad. Triad playing with house money rest of winter, assuming it decides to return .

[pcbjr]

Watch and learn ...

[snowbird1230]

The storm was medicore at best in my Southwest mountain community. However,forecast by the NWS for my area was spot on. Radar returns before the storm told me alot. Living here for almost 50 years, I have never seen a powerhouse storm that was preceded a few hours before with snow flurries and snow showers.  If the radar does not show one large consolidated precipitation field that stretches from the Gulf around Louisiana moving into the mountains ,then the storm is not going to produce heavy uniform amounts throughout  the mountains. There were many breaks in the precipitation field.  I realized then that forecast would probably bust. Also, after the main precipitation field cleared the mountains,there was talk of backbuilding of the precipitation once the upper low passed by. I have never seen precipitation back build once it clears the mountains. Some were saying it would even backbuild all the way to Knoxville. This never happened . I don't know that it ever has. The only way to get more snow in the mountains once the man precipitation field has passed is through Northwest flow snow. Sometimes a little radar watching goes a long way. I don't care what the models are showing

[drfranklin]

for those in Upstate SC: move/live "north" of the magical I-85 if you desire snow

snowbird: where specifically do you live? I was under the impression that Cashiers/Lake Toxaway/Brevard rec'd a significant amount of snowfall

[Cold Rain]

51 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

The storm was medicore at best in my Southwest mountain community. However,forecast by the NWS for my area was spot on. Radar returns before the storm told me alot. Living here for almost 50 years, I have never seen a powerhouse storm that was preceded a few hours before with snow flurries and snow showers.  If the radar does not show one large consolidated precipitation field that stretches from the Gulf around Louisiana moving into the mountains ,then the storm is not going to produce heavy uniform amounts throughout  the mountains. There were many breaks in the precipitation field.  I realized then that forecast would probably bust. Also, after the main precipitation field cleared the mountains,there was talk of backbuilding of the precipitation once the upper low passed by. I have never seen precipitation back build once it clears the mountains. Some were saying it would even backbuild all the way to Knoxville. This never happened . I don't know that it ever has. The only way to get more snow in the mountains once the man precipitation field has passed is through Northwest flow snow. Sometimes a little radar watching goes a long way. I don't care what the models are showing

Backbuilding rarely results in more than light precipitation that ends quickly.

[WarmNose]

If you can find a snowfall map with sharper gradient than this, feel free to post. I couldn't find one

[griteater]

39 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

If you can find a snowfall map with sharper gradient than this, feel free to post. I couldn't find one

Nice thread Cold Rain.  I will have some thoughts to add tomorrow maybe

Here are a couple of tight gradient storms of the past...

[Timothy Clyde]

The more they upgrade these models (GFS/EURO) I have noticed they are getting worse at depicting modeled qpf in the mountains and foothills at certain ranges.

Even with all the NW trends it took until 12 hours before to realize 1-3 was going to be more like 8-12.

[Timothy Clyde]

1 hour ago, snowbird1230 said:

The storm was medicore at best in my Southwest mountain community. However,forecast by the NWS for my area was spot on. Radar returns before the storm told me alot. Living here for almost 50 years, I have never seen a powerhouse storm that was preceded a few hours before with snow flurries and snow showers.  If the radar does not show one large consolidated precipitation field that stretches from the Gulf around Louisiana moving into the mountains ,then the storm is not going to produce heavy uniform amounts throughout  the mountains. There were many breaks in the precipitation field.  I realized then that forecast would probably bust. Also, after the main precipitation field cleared the mountains,there was talk of backbuilding of the precipitation once the upper low passed by. I have never seen precipitation back build once it clears the mountains. Some were saying it would even backbuild all the way to Knoxville. This never happened . I don't know that it ever has. The only way to get more snow in the mountains once the man precipitation field has passed is through Northwest flow snow. Sometimes a little radar watching goes a long way. I don't care what the models are showing

Back building came happen but seems extremely rare. One case would be the back building deform band that crushed Surry County a year or two ago with 20"+. Believe the VA blue ridge mountains also cashed in.  

[Touchet]

I can tell you that what we saw in Bham was not at all "snow". We had one heavy burst of snow for about 10 minutes. The rest of the time was sleet. Even when the radar said it was snow. It was so loud you could hear it inside. So you can't even trust the radar anymore. 

[Cold Rain]

11 minutes ago, Touchet said:

I can tell you that what we saw in Bham was not at all "snow". We had one heavy burst of snow for about 10 minutes. The rest of the time was sleet. Even when the radar said it was snow. It was so loud you could hear it inside. So you can't even trust the radar anymore. 

Lol that's true.  I was in the pink all night.  Moderate rain.  In the morning, I was in the blue.  Sleet.   Might as well not even try if that's the best we can do.

[CaryWx]

What makes this one tough for areas like the Triangle aside from the awesome run up and then a Lucy football saga is that we have all this super cold (<32 F) for 72hrs and not the ton of snow most areas west of our position received.   Doubt we get that sequence again this winter even if we were to luck up and catch a decent storm here.

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

What makes this one tough for areas like the Triangle aside from the awesome run up and then a Lucy football saga is that we have all this super cold (<32 F) for 72hrs and not the ton of snow most areas west of our position received.   Doubt we get that sequence again this winter even if we were to luck up and catch a decent storm here.

Yeah, this would have been an ideal time to get a big snow.  It sucks when it snows and it's in the 50s the next day.

[WarmNose]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nice thread Cold Rain.  I will have some thoughts to add tomorrow maybe

Here are a couple of tight gradient storms of the past...

Randolph county received a trace while the Northwest side received 10" much like the 87' event. Looks like the low tracked a little more inland in 87'. I'm guessing the cold air came from west of the Appalachians during that event too. High ratio snows up near Boone.

[HWY316wx]

Something that keeps rolling around in my mind is why I-85?  Seriously, why in the world does it seem like so many weather events use the interstate as a fault line? From SW GA all the way up through NC.  I know it's not all the time, but sure does seem like we talk about I-85 and I-40 a lot on this board.

One thing I learned to start to factor in is, IT WILL COME NW.  It's just a matter of when on the models and how far in real life.

Hats off to everyone on the board.  I personally want to thank, GRIT he does great PBP on the EURO.

[palmettoweather]

2 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Something that keeps rolling around in my mind is why I-85?  Seriously, why in the world does it seem like so many weather events use the interstate as a fault line? From SW GA all the way up through NC.  I know it's not all the time, but sure does seem like we talk about I-85 and I-40 a lot on this board.

One thing I learned to start to factor in is, IT WILL COME NW.  It's just a matter of when on the models and how far in real life.

Hats off to everyone on the board.  I personally want to thank, GRIT he does great PBP on the EURO.

My two cents would be that interstates are going to be laid out at pretty consistent elevation levels for ease of construction . There will obviously be deviations from this, but I-85 is just following the topography of the land, which also often delineates climatology. I may be way off on this though.

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Randolph county received a trace while the Northwest side received 10" much like the 87' event. Looks like the low tracked a little more inland in 87'. I'm guessing the cold air came from west of the Appalachians during that event too. High ratio snows up near Boone.

The Jan '87 storm was a stronger El Nino storm with sfc low right on the Carolina coast.  But you are correct, that one had little to no sfc high to the north (and had a Great Lakes Low to boot)...but it was very dynamic storm that worked out for areas to the west in central and western NC down into the upstate and N GA - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0122.php

 

10 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Something that keeps rolling around in my mind is why I-85?  Seriously, why in the world does it seem like so many weather events use the interstate as a fault line? From SW GA all the way up through NC.  I know it's not all the time, but sure does seem like we talk about I-85 and I-40 a lot on this board.

One thing I learned to start to factor in is, IT WILL COME NW.  It's just a matter of when on the models and how far in real life.

Hats off to everyone on the board.  I personally want to thank, GRIT he does great PBP on the EURO.

All I can say is thank you, and I appreciate it...it's a labor of love

[Touchet]

58 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Something that keeps rolling around in my mind is why I-85?  Seriously, why in the world does it seem like so many weather events use the interstate as a fault line? From SW GA all the way up through NC.  I know it's not all the time, but sure does seem like we talk about I-85 and I-40 a lot on this board.

One thing I learned to start to factor in is, IT WILL COME NW.  It's just a matter of when on the models and how far in real life.

Hats off to everyone on the board.  I personally want to thank, GRIT he does great PBP on the EURO.

What if it's the cars creating a wind shear at the surface? Lol. 

[Met1985]

I learned that no matter how many times someone posts the NW trend is done or I don't see a NW trend that it is going to happen the majority of the time. I hope many have learned that as being in the mountains we where not making up the NW trend as I had a couple of people try to argue vehemently that there was no NW trend and it would not happen or the NW trend was done. Since then I have not seen these people post here at all. Not to rub any thing in anyone's face but it did happen and there was a trend that started I think about 2 to 3 days out on the GFS. Which brings me to the GFS and Euro. The GFS did a great job picking the storm up. The euro eventually picked the storm up but was horrible for my area. The GFS eventually started honing back in on the moisture making it further up in our area. Yes it did have cliches but the last 24 to 48 hours it destroyed the euro in our area. I don't think the euro even came close to what we got in the 24 hours leading up to the event. Also the NAM did very well in the last 24 to 48 hours leading up to this event especially with the warm nose.

[ncsled]

Since we have snowfall maps of the past. Why don't we compile as many as possible and figure out where the Natural screw zones are in the state. I know it will not be 100 percent correct but I bet it would beat models 75 percent of the time. That map of the jan 22-23 1987 is one that has stuck in my mind since it happened.  I was just on the screw zone side. I didnt even get a dusting. A tiny bit of snow was around the base of trees and that was it. Then It turned to a little freezing rain. Then just plain rain.  That event is what got me into winter weather.

 

[BlunderStorm]

7 hours ago, snowbird1230 said:

The storm was medicore at best in my Southwest mountain community. However,forecast by the NWS for my area was spot on. Radar returns before the storm told me alot. Living here for almost 50 years, I have never seen a powerhouse storm that was preceded a few hours before with snow flurries and snow showers.  If the radar does not show one large consolidated precipitation field that stretches from the Gulf around Louisiana moving into the mountains ,then the storm is not going to produce heavy uniform amounts throughout  the mountains. There were many breaks in the precipitation field.  I realized then that forecast would probably bust. Also, after the main precipitation field cleared the mountains,there was talk of backbuilding of the precipitation once the upper low passed by. I have never seen precipitation back build once it clears the mountains. Some were saying it would even backbuild all the way to Knoxville. This never happened . I don't know that it ever has. The only way to get more snow in the mountains once the man precipitation field has passed is through Northwest flow snow. Sometimes a little radar watching goes a long way. I don't care what the models are showing

I witnessed it build back in the form of it holding snow over regions just north and east of knoxville. It even reached Pikeville Kentucky. The system did however move faster than expected.

[J.C.]

6 hours ago, palmettoweather said:

My two cents would be that interstates are going to be laid out at pretty consistent elevation levels for ease of construction . There will obviously be deviations from this, but I-85 is just following the topography of the land, which also often delineates climatology. I may be way off on this though.

The cities were built in areas based on topography, the interstates came later and connected those cities.  

 

[snowbird1230]

4 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

I witnessed it build back in the form of it holding snow over regions just north and east of knoxville. It even reached Pikeville Kentucky. The system did however move faster than expected.

If you will look at the radar returns for the storm, the snow in East Tennessee came up from the southwest out of Alabama and Georgia. Never did the snow build back into Tennessee out of the east from North Carolina

[snowbird1230]

11 hours ago, drfranklin said:

for those in Upstate SC: move/live "north" of the magical I-85 if you desire snow

snowbird: where specifically do you live? I was under the impression that Cashiers/Lake Toxaway/Brevard rec'd a significant amount of snowfall

Robbinsville

[Tacoma]

well I learned that most of the time the storm will trend NW at some point, one thing I didn't like about the storm was it was moving to fast to enjoy the snowfall.  I wished it would have snowed all day Saturday to enjoy watching it but it snowed after dark Friday nite and was over Saturday morning just after sunrise.  Still very happy with the 7 inches though. 

[NGTim]

i learned that jburns needs to use a stronger password to not get hacked (or if not someone nearby really needs to go check on him)

CR, the "pink radar just means slightly colder rain"  made me chuckle more than anything else.

As far as the models and met interpretations, and this is coming from a simplistic view, which i think is good sometimes, is it not pretty good that for my area the roughly .3 inches of moisture that got to my specific area at a fairly specific time, and formed snow in the correct zone, survived the column, and was able to accumulate approx 3 inches based on ground temps and other factors, is it not pretty impressive that this was not a total surprise?  I just think we are fooling ourselves to ask for more at least right now.   Now take this with a grain of salt, i admit if I had got shafted I'd probably be looking for that guy who says he is sending emails to the govt agencies saying bla bla bla and I'd be angrily picketing outside the nws office.  (actually i followed my nws closely and I'd say they did a great job for my state).

I wish there was a way to estimate a snowstorm more like a hurricane (visually on a map), with an ever expanding cone of uncertainty for timing, distance, precip type and amount. 

[Tony Sisk]

On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 2:37 PM, lilj4425 said:

I live six miles north/northwest of I-85 and got almost five inches of snow. 

I live 5 miles north/northwest from I-85 and got a good 5" of snow. There is a whole lot of truth to the I-85 corridor though.

[CentralNC]

For areas south of I85 you have to have a pressing HP from the NE building down as the storm is forming.  I was never sold on N GA getting into this storm that much.

Also, EURO is great for sniffing things out in the long term but not as good closer in.  One of the few times I can recall sitting in the western piedmont that I was pretty comfortable telling my friends that we would stay all snow.  Of course QPF was going to be a question but ptype around where I am was not an issue.  HP was strong enough to get the job done here.